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Clemson vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Clem 30.5 – FSU 16
Weather: 78 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,600) Redemption tour is well underway for Klubnik and his detractors are beginning to believe now after scoring over 100 fantasy points over the last three weeks. Schedule has been soft in that time, but we don’t expect the Florida State defense to offer much resistance either given the way their season is crumbling now. FSU’s secondary is 107th in pass D success rate and 115th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.
Fade – WR Tyler Brown ($3,500) First game back for Brown last Saturday since Week 2, but he’s trending down and looks to have been passed up by Antonio Williams who is now the full-time starting slot receiver with the emergence of the freshman on the outside. Just 16 routes run and one target last week vs. Stanford
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Start your Jake Briningstool shares this week in DFS and CFF as this is as juicy a matchup it gets for the talented tight end. FSU is allowing 12 FPPG to opposing tight ends with RJ Maryland and Anthony Landphere both scoring over 17 fantasy points in their matchup with the Seminoles. Even Cal’s top two tight ends combined for 13 fantasy points against FSU.
Pivot Play – RB Phil Mafah ($7,000) Had to chuckle a bit when the Clemson beat writer said that because of the crowd noise this week that the Tigers might lean on Mafah a bit more offensively. You really think FSU fans are going to pack that stadium after this start to the season? Hasn’t been the start we expected from Mafah, but this is a potential get-right matchup against an FSU defense that is 66th in rush D success rate and has allowed four different running backs to score 22 or more fantasy points against them already.
Best of the Rest – WRs Clemson is likely to be down two wideouts this week so this week should be reflective of last Saturday’s matchup with Stanford in terms of playing time. Antonio Williams played 86% of his reps in the slot, essentially nullifying Tyler Brown from the equation. Prized freshman T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. were the top two on the team in routes run, combining for 10 targets on the day. Those three, along with Briningstool are the options in the passing game for the Tigers.
Injury Notes – Expect Clemson to be without two rotational receivers this week with Adam Randall and Troy Stellato both missing the game due to injuries.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,000) As we saw last week against Stanford, the Clemson run defense is a problem right now. And not in a good way. The Tigers are giving up 30.6 FPPG to opposing backfields and rank 109th in rush D success rate. Toafili didn’t find the end-zone last week, but still got the bulk of the carries for the second straight game with Roydell Williams out of the lineup.
Fade – QB Brock Glenn ($4,900) Can’t get much worse than DJU, so Glenn being inserted into the lineup won’t hurt this offense. But we don’t want any part of this Florida State passing game right now that has thrown just four touchdowns in five games. Clemson isn’t a dominant secondary, but the Tigers have only allowed one QB to score more than 13 fantasy points this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’khi Douglas ($4,600) Only realistic option on the FSU side other than Toafili this week. Douglas is second in targets (20), first in receptions (15) and first in receiving yards (285) with a 75% catch rate.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Benson ($4,200) On the off chance that Brock Glenn rejuvenates this Florida State passing game, Benson still leads the team in routes run and targets (26) this season. Benson’s 15.7 aDOT is the highest on the team so maybe we get one deep shot that results in a touchdown.
Best of the Rest – Could throw a dart at Hykeem Williams, Kentron Poitier or Jalen Brown as rotational options, but FSU has not found a capable starting wideout opposite Benson on the outside. Williams played 58% of snaps last week – most of that trio – but resulted in just one catch for minimal yardage.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tenn -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Tenn 35.5 – Ark 22
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($8,900) The Razorbacks have been solid defensively against the run, having now allowed an opponent yet to score more than 15 fantasy points against them. And the opponents haven’t been slouches either, facing Ollie Gordon, Lee Beebe and Le’Veon Moss already. For that reason, Sampson isn’t the lock he normally is but remains the best option the Vols have on offense with three 100-yard performances in four games. Even in the matchup at Oklahoma, Sampson still managed 92 yards and a touchdown facing one of the best run defenses in the conference.
Fade – WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. ($5,200) That’s twice now that Thornton has been the star of the show among Tennessee receivers when we least expected it, scoring on the 66-yard touchdown vs. the Sooners. While physically gifted, Thornton still isn’t on the field all that much, playing just 36% of the time against Oklahoma. Fantasy points are more important than snaps on the field, but just a word of caution here before entering him into your lineups.
Bargain Bin – WR Bru McCoy ($3,200) Don’t understand this pricing for McCoy who was tied for the team lead in targets last week vs. Oklahoma and played 84% of the offensive snaps. McCoy leads the team in targets, receptions and routes run in 2024.
Pivot Play – RB DeSean Bishop ($4,200) Bishop is established now as the team’s RB2 behind Sampson. Even after the Oklahoma matchup, Bishop is still averaging well over seven yards a carry for the season, and his reps have only gone up week to week. If you assume a Vols blowout of Arkansas, stacking Bishop and Sampson together could be a strong GPP option.
Best of the Rest – QB Nico Iamaleava ($9,200) Arkansas has the third worst pass defense in the SEC in terms of yards allowed through the air and are 86th in pass D success rate. The Hogs do a decent job of limiting the big play, though, with just 13 passes allowed of 20+ yards this season. Marcel Reed and Jacob Zeno both scored 21 fantasy points in their matchups with Arkansas this season. WR Squirrel White ($4,800) is third in targets (11) but has yet to make much of an impact this season. Though maybe this is the week. Three receivers have scored over 22 fantasy points already against Arkansas this season, two of which being slot receivers in Noah Thomas and Brennan Presley. We know Squirrel White will not have any ownership on this slate given his lack of production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) –
Other games featured on the full write-up:
Baylor v Iowa St.; Michigan v Washington; USC v Minnesota; UCF v Florida; Kansas v Arizona St.; Duke v Georgia Tech
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 6 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.