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Florida State vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -3.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Duke 23 – FSU 19.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($4,500) Toafili saw the most carries for FSU for the third straight game following the Roydell Williams injury. The Blue Devils allow quite a bit of fantasy points too, to opposing running backs, with five players scoring 19 or more points this season. Three of which are very pedestrian fantasy running backs as well in Cam Porter, Jaiden Credle and Cam Edwards.
Fade – QB Brock Glenn ($5,900) Rule No. 1 this season is don’t play Florida State quarterbacks. And Rule No. 2 is don’t play quarterbacks in a potential timeshare. We only saw Brock Glenn vs. Clemson, but the rumor mill is churning again this week that we could see freshman Luke Kromenhoek get a few series depending how the game flows.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen Thomas ($3,400) Not surprising that in a lost season, Florida State is starting to play its freshmen more and more. Thomas played a season-high 57% of the snaps vs. Clemson in Week 6, finally surpassing Kyle Morlock who has been ineffective in 2024. Thomas had eight targets against the Tigers.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Benson ($4,200) Benson continues to lead the team in routes run, targets (32) and is tied atop the leaderboard with 18 receptions.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($4,600) and WR Hykeem Williams ($3,300) The top trio of Benson, Douglas and Williams have separated themselves from the pack, all playing over 64% of the team’s snaps against Clemson in Week 6. Mixed bag of results from the group, but if trying to roster an FSU receiver, it would be one of those three.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Star Thomas ($5,700) Thomas is listed by default as there are no strong options on the Duke side. Florida State is hit or miss against the run, ranking 63rd in success rate but have allowed over 200 yards on the ground in each of its last two games. Five running backs have scored 17 or more fantasy points against the Seminoles this season. That said, Thomas had his lowest output of the season last time out vs. Georgia Tech, and opening day starter Jaquez Moore could return from injury.
Fade – WR Javon Harvey ($3,400) The Old Dominion transfer can barely see the field, playing just 24% of the snaps vs. Georgia Tech in Week 6 with one target.
Bargain Bin – TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,000) Just three receptions in the last two weeks for Dalmolin but has been on the field over 90% of the time in both games, and has already shown us this season he has ability with 100 yards and two scores in Week 4 vs. Middle Tennessee. FSU is giving up 11.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Moore ($6,500) Moore’s production has taken a hit lately as Murphy’s numbers have fallen. But Moore is one of the true slate-breaking potential wide receivers on the slate. For as bad as Florida State has been against the pass, they don’t allow a ton of fantasy points to receivers. Just one (Antonio Williams) has scored more than 15 fantasy points vs. the Seminoles this season. If not Moore, WR Eli Pancol ($4,800) is the next best option with a team-high five receiving touchdowns and second on the team in targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Maalik Murphy ($7,600) The book seems to be out on Murphy who has trended downwards since Week 1, with his passing numbers declining with each passing week and failing to score 20 fantasy points since mid-September. That said, FSU ranks 110th in pass D success rate and 122nd in EPA per pass play defensively. Maybe we week of helps Murphy recalibrate in preparation of facing a woeful secondary.
Injury Notes – RB Jaquez Moore ($4,800) Was trending towards playing two weeks ago before Duke’s bye week. Another week or so of rest could result in Moore’s return to the lineup.
Oregon vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Oreg -27
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: Oreg 43.5 – Purd 16.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) –
Other games featured in the full Friday Night Slate write-up:
Oklahoma State v BYU; Fresno St. v Nevada
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 8 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.