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Virginia vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: UVA -20.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Clem 39 – UVA 18.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($7,000) Team leader in all receiving categories, coming off a season-best 17 targets in the loss to Louisville. Five receivers have scored 14 or more fantasy points against Clemson this season as most opponents are in a trailing position vs. the Tigers.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($6,900) Three-game slate, maybe this is a scenario to consider Colandrea, but not on a main slate. The strength of the Clemson defense is in the secondary, ranking 33rd in EPA per pass play and 27th in success rate. Just one quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Clemson all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Kameron Courtney ($3,100) I’ve scooped Courtney up in all my college fantasy dynasty leagues as the freshman has made an impact in the slot with Chris Tyree on the shelf due to injury. 5-42-0 on six targets last week vs. Louisville as he was on the field just as much as Malachi Fields on Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Kobe Pace ($4,400) Really hate this play to be honest, but we have two factors working in favor of Pace. (1) Revenge game against his former team (I say that like it honestly plays a part in factoring in fantasy relevance, when mostly it doesn’t.) More importantly, Clemson run defense is still average, ranking 81st in success rate and allowing 23 FPPG to opposing backfields. The Tigers seems to have shored up their defensive woes in the last two games, holding Florida State and Wake Forest to just 109 combined rushing yards.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Neville ($3,400) Everyone is seeing their volume increase with the injuries at receiver, including Neville who had 7-64-0 on nine targets last week. Tight ends have found moderate success against Clemson. Wake Forest TE Michael Frogge found the end-zone last week. The week prior, Florida State’s Landen Thomas scored 15 fantasy points.
Injury Notes – WR Trell Harris will miss Saturday’s contest and is out a few more weeks. Chris Tyree might be back.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($7,500) 100+ rushing yards in four of the last five games for Mafah as his workload is steadily increasing as well with 44 carries in the past two weeks. Overall, the run defensive numbers for UVA are below average and have allowed some big performances to ACC running backs, including 23 fantasy points from Demond Claiborne and 27 fantasy points to Isaac Brown.
Fade – n/a. Aside from the injured receivers, all Clemson starters are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Briningstool had his best performance of the season vs. Wake Forest with 7-104-1 on 10 targets. Tight ends are scoring 30% more than their seasonal average when facing Virginia this season.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,600) Of the “spend up” options at quarterback this week, Klubnik is the best of the bunch, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. Virginia isn’t bad against the pass, but they’re not good either, ranking 77th in success rate, 90th in EPA and allowing 20.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($6,000) Williams has been feasting on the outside, which is a surprise to me as I thought his more natural position might be in the slot. Five receiving touchdowns for Williams in the four games that he’s exclusively played. WR Troy Stellato ($3,000) and WR T.J. Moore ($3,300) combined for 10 receptions on 12 targets last week and both played over 70% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – WR Bryant Wesco ($4,400) We do have Wesco in our projections as of now, but I would not be surprised if the freshman did not suit up again this week with Clemson as three-touchdown favorites. Dabo called Wesco week-to-week. We cannot count on Tyler Brown either at this point, who looks like a redshirt candidate.
UCLA vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Rutg -4.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Rutg 22.5 – UCLA 18
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UCLA:
The Bruins are dead last in the B1G in scoring offense, rushing offense and total offense. Zero interest in the quarterback situation. Rutgers is 124th in rush D success rate, and we’ll have zero exposure to the UCLA backfield because of how dismal the Bruins are at running the football. Writing this up on Tuesday, our attention will be on if WR Rico Flores ($4,200) will be available or not as he did not suit up vs. Minnesota. In his place, WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($3,400) had a season-high 107 receiving yards on 11 targets. While production has not been consistent, Sturdivant’s playing time has been on the field over 80% of the time in the last three games – two of which with Flores. WR Logan Loya ($3,200) looks like the 2023 version of himself coming back from injury earlier in the year, now with four receptions in each of the last three games. The best bargain bin option on the slate.
Rutgers:
RB Kyle Monangai ($7,200) Monangai leads the B1G at 22.5 rushing attempts per game and could see a heavier workload moving forward now with backup Samuel Brown likely out for an extended period after suffering an injury last Saturday. The Bruins are 98th in rush D success rate and are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing backfields. Game totals don’t suggest a blowout here, but talented freshman RB Antwan Raymond ($3,500) will assume the RB2 role behind Monangai moving forward and was impressive in the early going with 126 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks.
Miami vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: Mia -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mia 32 – UL 28.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 8 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.