Virginia vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: UVA -20.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Clem 39 – UVA 18.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($7,000) Team leader in all receiving categories, coming off a season-best 17 targets in the loss to Louisville. Five receivers have scored 14 or more fantasy points against Clemson this season as most opponents are in a trailing position vs. the Tigers.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($6,900) Three-game slate, maybe this is a scenario to consider Colandrea, but not on a main slate. The strength of the Clemson defense is in the secondary, ranking 33rd in EPA per pass play and 27th in success rate. Just one quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Clemson all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Kameron Courtney ($3,100) I’ve scooped Courtney up in all my college fantasy dynasty leagues as the freshman has made an impact in the slot with Chris Tyree on the shelf due to injury. 5-42-0 on six targets last week vs. Louisville as he was on the field just as much as Malachi Fields on Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Kobe Pace ($4,400) Really hate this play to be honest, but we have two factors working in favor of Pace. (1) Revenge game against his former team (I say that like it honestly plays a part in factoring in fantasy relevance, when mostly it doesn’t.) More importantly, Clemson run defense is still average, ranking 81st in success rate and allowing 23 FPPG to opposing backfields. The Tigers seems to have shored up their defensive woes in the last two games, holding Florida State and Wake Forest to just 109 combined rushing yards.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Neville ($3,400) Everyone is seeing their volume increase with the injuries at receiver, including Neville who had 7-64-0 on nine targets last week. Tight ends have found moderate success against Clemson. Wake Forest TE Michael Frogge found the end-zone last week. The week prior, Florida State’s Landen Thomas scored 15 fantasy points.
Injury Notes – WR Trell Harris will miss Saturday’s contest and is out a few more weeks. Chris Tyree might be back.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($7,500) 100+ rushing yards in four of the last five games for Mafah as his workload is steadily increasing as well with 44 carries in the past two weeks. Overall, the run defensive numbers for UVA are below average and have allowed some big performances to ACC running backs, including 23 fantasy points from Demond Claiborne and 27 fantasy points to Isaac Brown.
Fade – n/a. Aside from the injured receivers, all Clemson starters are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Briningstool had his best performance of the season vs. Wake Forest with 7-104-1 on 10 targets. Tight ends are scoring 30% more than their seasonal average when facing Virginia this season.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,600) Of the “spend up” options at quarterback this week, Klubnik is the best of the bunch, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. Virginia isn’t bad against the pass, but they’re not good either, ranking 77th in success rate, 90th in EPA and allowing 20.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($6,000) Williams has been feasting on the outside, which is a surprise to me as I thought his more natural position might be in the slot. Five receiving touchdowns for Williams in the four games that he’s exclusively played. WR Troy Stellato ($3,000) and WR T.J. Moore ($3,300) combined for 10 receptions on 12 targets last week and both played over 70% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – WR Bryant Wesco ($4,400) We do have Wesco in our projections as of now, but I would not be surprised if the freshman did not suit up again this week with Clemson as three-touchdown favorites. Dabo called Wesco week-to-week. We cannot count on Tyler Brown either at this point, who looks like a redshirt candidate.
Miami vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: Mia -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mia 32 – UL 28.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($10,300) Game stack alert as most expect this to be a shootout between two top five offenses in the ACC. Hefty price to go up and get Ward this week, but he makes much more sense than a Jalen Milroe if that’s the strategy you’re looking to deploy. The secondary is the questionable aspect of the Louisville defense, allowing 27.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Damien Martinez ($5,800) The only upside to having Martinez in our lineups is the Miami passing game being so potent, leading to scoring opportunities for Miami’s…. RB1? I say that because Mark Fletcher had just one less rushing attempt vs. Cal two weeks ago and doubled Martinez’ yards per carry average. This must be a committee moving forward.
Bargain Bin – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,600) You’re seeing the NFL talent come out this year now that Arroyo is finally healthy. Four touchdowns in his last five games, and his usage is steadily increasing with every passing week.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Horton ($5,900) Speaking of usage, Horton has emerged as the team’s WR2 over Jacolby George and Sam Brown Jr. at this point, coming off a season-best 9-83-1 on 11 targets, and has found the end-zone in each of the last three games. Pairing Horton and Restrepo, or maybe even a Jacolby George, in the same lineup is fine this week given that Miami is No. 1 nationally in yards per game and 17th in attempts per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($8,200) Team leader in targets, receptions and touchdowns, though that gap is almost closed now between Restrepo and Horton – showing how good a Horton play might be this week. Slot receivers have found some success vs. Louisville this season, with the likes of Georgia Tech’s Malik Rutherford (18 fpts) and Notre Dame’s Jaden Greathouse (16 fpts).
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Isaac Brown ($5,600) Finally, Louisville dumped the RBBC they’d been employing the first five games and gave the freshman running back 20 carries vs. Virginia and the move paid off immediately, rushing for 146 yards and two scores. The 190-pound freshman is now averaging 8.6 yards per carry this season.
Fade – Backups. Louisville’s offensive production is heavily concentrated amongst the starters. We mentioned above that this is no longer a backfield committee as Brown has assumed the RB1 status on the team’s depth chart. 191 of the 231 receiving yards last week came from either Brooks, Bell or Lacy.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Bell ($3,400) or WR Caullin Lacy ($4,200) Louisville doesn’t rotate at receiver so you’re choosing one of the three. Lacy is intriguing in that Miami has struggled to defend slot receivers this season. Three of the top four scoring receivers to face the Canes this season all play in the slot.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Shough ($7,900) Numbers don’t necessarily favor Shough this week with just a 19-point projection. The Canes are 4th nationally in pass D success rate, 6th in EPA per pass play and giving up just 15 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. If there’s a passing scheme that can beat this secondary, though, it would be Jeff Brohm’s system. Shough is best in a game stack scenario.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($7,300) Team leader in every receiving category. The drops are the only concern really as Brooks has four in the last three games. Best in a game stack paired with Shough for GPPs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -4.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 28 – Aub 23.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($5,100) KLS continues to get it done every week, now with 70 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season. Volume is up as well the last three weeks with a combined 23 targets. Missouri hasn’t given up a lot of fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, but they’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the country to this point with some bad passing offenses.
Fade – WR Robert Lewis ($3,600) Not regionally located near Auburn and since the Tigers don’t have many fantasy assets, I don’t follow them particularly closely. But from a surface level view, it seems like maybe Robert Lewis lost his starting job in the slot to freshman Malcolm Simmons. Season-low 38% of snaps vs. Georgia last time out for Lewis, while Simmons now has 16 targets over the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,400) Fairweather is tied for second in targets, third in receptions and second in routes run. I’d favor Malcolm Simmons who we mentioned above over Fairweather if bargain hunting on the Auburn roster. Cam Coleman is still cheap at $3.7k and is on the field for his normal allotment of snaps – just not a lot of production coming with that.
Pivot Play – QB Payton Thorne ($6,600) Missouri has faced two quarterbacks this season with similar skillsets to Payton Thorne – Diego Pavia and Thomas Castellanos. Both QBs scored more than 21 fantasy points vs. the Tigers. We would be happy if Thorne hit that mark at this price tag. I like the rushing volume we’re getting out of Thorne to boost his value with double-digit carries in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,100) 90 or more yards in each of the last two games for Hunter who is averaging close to seven yards per carry for the season. As we saw against A&M two weeks ago, this Missouri run defense is average at best, allowing 54 combined fantasy points to Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($8,100) The bumps and bruises always seem to be affecting Burden, but he was removed from the injury report and will play on Saturday. Burden has four of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns this season and 32 of his 40 targets have come in the last four weeks.
Fade – RB Nate Noel ($6,100) Hopefully don’t get burned for this one, but I’d be cautious with Noel this week after being a surprise scratch from last week’s contest vs. UMass. HC Eli Drinkwitz stated this week that he expects Noel to play, but Missouri also has a fully capable backup in Marcus Carroll that can handle the load if Noel is limited in any fashion.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($3,500) Same situation every week so I’ll just keep writing the same thing with Cooper. Third on the team in targets and second in routes run, but rarely does any production come with that. Zero touchdowns and a 44% catch rate.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($7,100) This was not the Missouri passing game I was expecting before the season with a senior quarterback and all three starting receivers back in the fold. Auburn’s secondary is the lesser of the two defensive components, ranked 71st in EPA per pass play and allowing 17.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Theo Wease ($5,800) Wease leads the team in every receiving category – who’d a thought that’d be the case at Missouri through six games. Five receivers have scored at least 14 fantasy points vs. Auburn this season as they’re prone to allowing explosive plays through the air.
Injury Notes – Check for Nate Noel’s status pregame.
Nebraska vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: IU -6.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: IU 28.5 – Neb 22
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Jahmal Banks ($3,900) Second on the team in targets (29), first in receptions (21) and first in routes run among Nebraska receivers, playing well over 70% of the offensive snaps each week.
Fade – RB Rahmir Johnson ($4,000) When all running backs are healthy, Johnson is the third option as a rusher behind Dowdell and Emmett Johnson. RJ is fourth on the team in targets (19) and receptions (16) but has really only been a difference maker in one game this season against Colorado in Week 2.
Bargain Bin – QB Dylan Raiola ($4,700) The Hoosiers are good defensively, ranked 33rd in pass D success rate and 6th in the B1G in yards allowed per game. That said, two of three Big Ten quarterbacks faced this season have scored at least 20 fantasy points against the Hoosiers. If Raiola hits 20 points, he’s hit value.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Neyor ($4,600) Volume is about the same between Neyor and Banks from a targets standpoint, but the former Wyoming transfer holds a decided edge between the two as a deep threat, averaging over 17 yards per catch, a 15.9 aDOT and double the amount of receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – RB Dante Dowdell ($4,700) Dowdell has found the end-zone twice in the last two games, now with nearly 50% of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Indiana is strong against the run, but have given up some points to opposing B1G running backs this season. Roman Hemby has a season-high 33 fantasy points in his matchup with the Hoosiers. Even UCLA’s TJ Harden managed 18 fantasy points a few weeks back. The coaching staff continues to get freshman WR Jacory Barney Jr. ($3,600) involved more in the offense, running 24 routes vs. Rutgers last week which was a season high. The freshman also has multiple games where he’s had a rushing TD as well.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($5,200) Team leads in targets (41), receptions (29), yards (513) and routes run. If there’s a position that can rack up some fantasy points on the Nebraska defense, it is the WR position. Three receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points this season against the Huskers, two of which were boundary wideouts like Sarratt.
Fade – RB Ty Son Lawton ($4,600) This is mostly an RBBC in the Indiana backfield with Lawton and Justice Ellison sharing the workload. But if there was a pecking order, Lawton would be closer to RB2 than RB1. And that doesn’t benefit us in a matchup where Nebraska does not give up fantasy points to running backs. Just one RB all season has scored more than 8 fantasy points vs. the Huskers.
Bargain Bin – WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($3,600) Feels like Indiana needs to try and get the Wake Forest transfer more involved. Williams is fifth among Hoosier receivers in routes run yet has four touchdowns in the last four games to lead the team, and a 73% catch rate.
Pivot Play – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,400) The Hoosiers essentially run committee approaches both at running back and wide receiver, so it could make sense to just roster the player that stirs the drink in Rourke. The Ohio transfer is second in the B1G in yards per game through the air and first in QB rating. At this point, we can call his head coach Curt Cignetti a quarterback whisperer with the work he’s done the last three seasons.
Best of the Rest – RB Justice Ellison ($4,800) Ellison doesn’t get a lot of volume, averaging just 10.1 carries per contest, but has now found paydirt in each of the last five games. At receiver, it’s a mixed bag between Omar Cooper Jr., Myles Price and Miles Cross who have nearly identical numbers in 2024. For as good as the Indiana passing game has been, it’s not a necessity to have an Indiana receiver in your lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Rutg -4.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Rutg 22.5 – UCLA 18
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UCLA:
The Bruins are dead last in the B1G in scoring offense, rushing offense and total offense. Zero interest in the quarterback situation. Rutgers is 124th in rush D success rate, and we’ll have zero exposure to the UCLA backfield because of how dismal the Bruins are at running the football. Writing this up on Tuesday, our attention will be on if WR Rico Flores ($4,200) will be available or not as he did not suit up vs. Minnesota. In his place, WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($3,400) had a season-high 107 receiving yards on 11 targets. While production has not been consistent, Sturdivant’s playing time has been on the field over 80% of the time in the last three games – two of which with Flores. WR Logan Loya ($3,200) looks like the 2023 version of himself coming back from injury earlier in the year, now with four receptions in each of the last three games. The best bargain bin option on the slate.
Rutgers:
RB Kyle Monangai ($7,200) Monangai leads the B1G at 22.5 rushing attempts per game and could see a heavier workload moving forward now with backup Samuel Brown likely out for an extended period after suffering an injury last Saturday. The Bruins are 98th in rush D success rate and are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing backfields. Game totals don’t suggest a blowout here, but talented freshman RB Antwan Raymond ($3,500) will assume the RB2 role behind Monangai moving forward and was impressive in the early going with 126 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -2.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: OU 21.5 – SC 19
Weather: 62 degrees / 14% rain / 13 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – TE Joshua Simon ($3,100) If you’re looking for fantasy assets, this is not the game for you. Simon’s usage has gone up of late with 10 of his 16 receptions this season coming in the last two weeks. Four tight ends have scored seven or more fantasy points on Oklahoma this season, including 20 from Gunnar Helm last Saturday.
Fade – QB LaNorris Sellers ($6,000) Some signs of progress throwing the ball last week against Bama, completing 74% of his throws for a season-high 238 yards, but turned the ball over three times in the loss to the Tide. Just one quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Oklahoma this season. Coincidentally, Sellers has only accomplished that once himself.
Bargain Bin – WR Mazeo Bennett ($3,600) The 5-foot-11 freshman has emerged as South Carolina’s No. 1 wide receiver with at least three receptions in four of the last five games.
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($4,700) Sanders looked plenty healthy against Alabama last Saturday with 78 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushing attempts, while also a factor in the passing game with four receptions on four targets. Didn’t think Sanders had that in him as a pass-catcher. The strength of OU’s defense resides in the front seven, allowing just 18.9 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 15th in rush D success rate. The Sooners also just allowed Tre Wisner to score 23 fantasy points last week – the most the team has allowed to a running back all season.
Best of the Rest – WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,800) The Florida State transfer returned from injury to play 71% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, the most of any South Carolina receiver.
Injury Notes – WR Jared Brown is ruled out but is expected back for the A&M matchup on November 2nd.
Oklahoma:
QB Michael Hawkins Jr. ($6,900) Optimals might have Hawkins included as a good play this week, but that’ll be strictly because of his rushing ability. I question the coaching staff here because Jackson Arnold is 100x better than Hawkins from my untrained eye. South Carolina is 7th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, so for Hawkins to hit value, he’s quite literally going to have to do it on the ground. RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,500) is the only other option with double-digit carries in four of the last five games but remains ineffective. The junior running back has averaged under four yards a carry in each of the last five contests. You wonder how long he retains the RB1 job with a healthy Taylor Tatum. South Carolina is 100th in rush D success rate and 58th in EPA per rush play.
Injury Notes – WR Deion Burks ($6,500) Burks remained listed as questionable on Thursday and will be a game-time decision. If unavailable, OU will again be without its top five wideouts.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Bama -3
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: Bama 29.5 – UT 26.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan Williams ($7,400) First time all season last week that Williams failed to find the end-zone in a game. Teams have been forced to throw vs. Tennessee because of their stout run D, and wide receivers have really been the only position to find success against the Vols. Not much…just two receivers scoring over 17 fantasy points in their matchups with Tennessee, but it’s a lot better than what running backs and quarterbacks have accomplished.
Fade – RB Justice Haynes ($5,400) Haynes had the higher prop number last week and now has the more expensive salary on DK over Jam Miller and I simply do not get it. Sure, Haynes took the first snap of the game over Miller, but the latter is the clear preferred choice in the red zone with a 14-4 advantage with carries inside the 20. Neither option is appealing against one of the best run defenses in the country.
Bargain Bin – TE CJ Dippre ($3,100) Increased usage with Dippre the last few weeks with 10 of his 13 targets coming in the last three games and 101 of his 121 yards coming in that span. Four tight ends have scored at least seven fantasy points vs. Tennessee this season and that would be enough for him to hit value at this pricing.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($4,100) Bernard is coming off his best performance of the season with 89 yards and a touchdown vs. South Carolina as the Gamecocks shaded the secondary coverage towards Williams. Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice being back boosts the depth, but this was still a condensed target share even when they were available. Bernard and Williams account for 45% of Bama’s target share.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,500) Strong 29-point projection for Milroe this week who is rarely ‘not’ and option with his playmaking ability. But this Tennessee defense has yet to allow a quarterback to score more than 12 fantasy points all season, so it doesn’t feel fiscally responsible to spend up for Milroe this week.
Injury Notes – n/a – Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law were removed from the injury report on Thursday, meaning they’re good to go.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($8,700) Not sure the Tennessee passing game is fixable at this point, so the Vols are leaning on their best offensive weapon, with 20+ carries in four of the last five games. Alabama’s run defense is good, not great. 51st in success rate, 22nd in EPA per rush play and allowed three running backs to score at least 15 fantasy points this season.
Fade – Everyone Else. I try to avoid short cutting these writeups when possible, but there’s no Tennessee option here outside of Sampson. Take your wildest guess as to which Vol receiver pops in a given week. Dont’e Thornton is the game-breaker of the group with 33% of the team’s receiving touchdowns but has been targeted just 11 times all year. Alabama’s strength defensively is in the secondary, ranking 15th in success rate, and allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 20 fantasy points all year. Don’t think Nico Iamaleava is even considerable as a contrarian play, unless your game-stacking in hopes of a shootout.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: ND -11.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: ND 30.5 – GT 19
Weather: Dome
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($8,100) Really the only trustworthy Notre Dame offensive option at this point. But how viable an option vs. Georgia Tech? The analytics don’t love the Georgia Tech secondary, ranked 114th in EPA per pass play and 86th in success rate. Quarterbacks are averaging just 20 FPPG against the Yellow Jackets, but multiple ACC QBs – Kyle McCord and Jacolby Criswell – scored over 30 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,400) None of the Notre Dame pass-catchers are all that appealing, but Thomas is the least of which in my opinion, even after scoring his first touchdown of the season last week vs. Stanford. Up until last week in a blowout situation, Thomas was playing around 25% of the team’s offensive snaps as a backup. TE Mitchell Evans ($3,800) probably shouldn’t be considered either as he was on the field mostly on third downs last week, with a Notre Dame beat writer openly questioning if he’ll ever be at full strength this season.
Bargain Bin – All other ND Receivers. They’re all sub-$4k and Georgia Tech has allowed five receivers to score over 15 fantasy points this season. Beaux Collins leads the team in all receiving categories. A third of Jaden Greathouse’s receiving production has come in the last two weeks. Those two, along with Kris Mitchell, have separated themselves from the pack a bit in terms of playing time.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($5,900) Love was out-carried 12-6 last week by backup Jadarian Price, yet still managed to outgain him by four yards while also finding the end-zone. Don’t think that is anything to worry about in regard to Love because of the blowout nature of the game. Georgia Tech is far better at defending the run vs. the pass in 2024, ranked 36th in success rate and have yet to allow a running back to score 20 fantasy points in a game.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,400) Notre Dame’s run defense is below average, and Georgia Tech may lean on their RB1 here if Haynes King is less than 100% which is likely to be the case. The Irish are 102nd in rush D success rate and are allowing 20 FPPG to opposing backfields. Back to back 100-yard performances for Haynes seems to have jumpstarted his season.
Fade – Tight Ends. HC Brent Key stated in his weekly presser that Georgia Tech has “five tight ends on the roster and seven of them are hurt.” Obviously, a bit tongue and cheek, but Tech doesn’t utilize the position heavily enough to even warrant possibly rostering an injured tight end option.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Lane ($3,300) Lane is a distant third from the top group with just 13 receptions on 18 targets but is still playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. If there aren’t any healthy tight ends on the roster, that could lead to increased usage for the receivers.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,800) or Eric Singleton ($4,600) Combined 50% of the team’s target share and four of the nine receiving touchdowns between Rutherford and Singleton. Just twice have opposing receivers scored double-digit fantasy points against Notre Dame this season, both coming in the same game with JaCorey Brooks and Caullin Lacy.
Best of the Rest – QB Haynes King ($8,600) King is closer to a fade than a play for this week. (1) Health. Brent Key said King was banged up last week and will be day-to-day. TBD on his playing status. (2) This is an elite Notre Dame secondary that is giving up just 10 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – Watch for Haynes King updates in pregame.
Michigan vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: UM -3.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UM 23.5 – Illini 20
Weather: 68 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($7,000) or Donovan Edwards ($5,300) Mullings struggled to gain traction for the first time since Week 2 vs. Texas, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry in the loss to Washington. Meanwhile, Edwards re-enacted his National Title game performance with 95 yards and a long touchdown run against the Huskies. Mullings will remain the preferred option of the two, but this staff is confident in both running backs so there’s no issue rostering either player. Low game total and tight spread means we only want one UM back in our lineups.
Fade – QB Jack Tuttle ($5,600) The Tuttle Shuttle led a scoring drive right off the bat after replacing Alex Orji in the starting lineup but was all downhill from there with multiple turnovers. Strike 1 against HC Sherrone Moore for completely fumbling the QB position this offseason.
Bargain Bin – TE Marlin Klein ($3,100) Klein might just be the second best “receiver” on the team as there is nobody among the Michigan wideouts to threaten opposing defenses. Even with Loveland back in the lineup, Klein played 71% of the snaps and was tied for second with two targets vs. Washington.
Pivot Play – WRs. If you can’t tell by the tone of this writeup, I cannot believe that this coaching staff (and some folks that cover this team) thought the wide receiver room was sufficient to make the College Football Playoff. This is a Conference USA level wide receiver room based talent. Maximium one Michigan wide receiver in a lineup, with Tyler Morris, Semaj Morgan or Kendrick Bell as the “top” options. Better off avoiding this group.
Best of the Rest – TE Colston Loveland ($4,600) This speaks more to the lack of weapons at receiver than the talent of Loveland who has 33% of the team’s total targets and a third of Michigan’s receiving yards. Loveland had 11 targets last week vs. Washington where the next closest Michigan pass-catcher had just two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Pat Bryant ($6,300) or WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,900) Not sure exactly which wide receiver will have the benefit of being guarded by Will Johnson, but we do know when Illinois drops back to pass, it’s going in two directions. Exactly 50% of the target share and eight of the 14 receiving touchdowns have gone to either Franklin or Byrant, with the ladder having a 7-1 advantage in TDs.
Fade – WR Malik Elzy ($3,500) So long as Bryant and Franklin are healthy, they’re both playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. Meaning Elzy does not have a role in the offense, targeted just once last week vs. Purdue.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh McCray ($3,800) McCray started in place of the injured Kaden Feagin last week, rushing for 78 yards and two scores on 17 attempts. He’ll be a popular play at his pricing, but not sure he’ll find the same running room against the Wolverines. Purdue is one of the worst defenses in the B1G, and McCray averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt – good, but not anything spectacular. Illinois is just 98th in EPA per rush play offensively.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,100) There aren’t many quarterbacks in the B1G playing better football than Altmyer who has a 14-1 touchdown to interception ratio and the fifth best QB rating in the conference. Just one quarterback has scored more than 20 fantasy points against Michigan this season, but Altmyer is also at a price point that he’s worth considering.
Best of the Rest – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,200) The book should be out at this point that Michigan cannot defend tight ends. Three tight ends have scored over 13 fantasy points this season against the Wolverines, two of which had over 20 points. Arkin is third on the team in receptions and targets. WRs Hank Beatty ($3,400) and WR Collin Dixon ($3,300) seem to be sharing the starting slot role. Dixon had 69 yards vs. Purdue and Beatty was targeted five times.
Injury Notes – RB Kaden Feagin ($4,900) According to HC Bret Bielema, Feagin is going to be out for a bit after hyperextending his left leg in practice. Don’t expect him on Saturday.
Colorado vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: UA -5
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: UA 30.5 – Col 25.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 17% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,300) Normally a spot reserved for Travis Hunter, but the price tag is too steep for a player coming off injury last weekend that was initially thought to be out a few games. Reports confirmed that Hunter will in fact play on Saturday, but how healthy is he truly? What we do know is that Colorado will sling the pill regardless of who is at receiver with Shedeur in the shotgun. Arizona is solid defending the pass, ranked 29th in EPA per pass play defensively and allowing 21 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Fade – RBs. Same story, different week. Colorado is third nationally in pass play percentage and don’t attempt to run the football.
Bargain Bin – WR Drelon Miller ($3,300) Miler will assume the WR5 spot in the offense now with Omarion Miller done for the year due to injury. The freshman could play a really important role if Hunter is limited or the message board rumors about Will Sheppard being in a boot are actually true. Had seven targets last week vs. Kansas State.
Pivot Play – WR LaJohntay Wester ($5,600) The only Colorado receiver that wasn’t injured in the last two games or is rumored to be injured. Wester is second in routes run, first in receiving touchdowns, with at least five targets in every game.
Best of the Rest – WR Will Sheppard ($3,900) The Vanderbilt transfer is really coming on in recent weeks with a combined 181 yards and two touchdowns, while leading all Colorado receivers in routes run in 2024. WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($4,600) is confirmed to be playing on Saturday and will assume his role as the team’s WR4.
Injury Notes – Track the pregame reports to make sure the starting receivers are suited up and looking healthy.
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($8,300) McMillan is simply the only trustworthy option on the entire Arizona offensive roster, accounting for 31% of the team’s receptions, 50% of the touchdowns and 33% of the target share. Colorado had done well prior to last week at limiting opposing receivers until Kansas State’s Jayce Brown scored 30 fantasy points in the win over the Buffs.
Fade – n/a. We’re not overly interested in anyone on the Arizona side of things as this has been one of the more disappointing teams in college fantasy, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the B12 in scoring offense. But everyone is priced appropriately to where you could consider.
Bargain Bin – TE Keyan Burnett ($3,800) Burnett is effectively functioning as WR2 next to McMillan, but Arizona doesn’t have a competent WR2 on the roster. 20 of Burnett’s 25 targets have come in the last three games alone. Colorado has done a solid job against opposing tight ends, allowing just 4.1 FPPG. I’d be curious to see if WR Reymello Murphy ($3,000) gets more run this week as well. The Old Dominion transfer made his first appearance of the season, catching all two of his targets for 38 yards.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($6,200) Colorado has been better than anticipated on the defensive end, particularly against the pass, ranked 34th in success rate defensively. Quarterbacks are averaging 19 FPPG vs. the Buffs this season, scoring around 17% more fantasy points than their seasonal average in matchups with Colorado. Fifita’s volume is also up with the lack of a running game, with over 100 passing attempts combined in the last two games.
Best of the Rest – RB Quali Conley ($6,700) Conley’s involvement in the passing game is why he’s an option at running back, now with 13 receptions over the last three games, converting on 96% of his targets. WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($3,400) has 10 targets in the last two games, finally found the end-zone last week vs. BYU and is second in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -6.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: TT 31 – Bayl 24.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 37% rain / 17 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – WR Hal Presley ($3,100) Arguably the best bargain bin option on the slate and likely to be one of the highest owned players for the entire weekend – those always work out well, don’t they? Presley has emerged as Baylor’s No. 1 option at receiver with 25 targets combined over the last two games.
Fade – RB Bryson Washington ($4,300) In a different situation or different team, I think Washington can be a productive runner. But volume is down, and the Bears are ineffective running the football, ranked 110th in success rate. Texas Tech has allowed three yards per carry in two of the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Monaray Baldwin ($3,300) or WR Ketron Jackson ($3,200) or WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($3,200) If Baylor continues to chuck it like they have the last two weeks, then every Baylor receiver is a possible option at these prices. Eight targets for Jackson, Eight targets for Hawkins and 13 targets for Baldwin in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Sawyer Robertson ($6,800) 27-point projection at this price puts Robertson squarely in play as one of the better QB options on the slate. This is now essentially an Air Raid offense, with Robertson averaging 46 passing attempts over the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Cameron ($4,600) Will likely see the lowest ownership of the Baylor wideouts due to pricing, but Cameron has been the steadiest Baylor wideout this season, ranked second in targets (27), first in touchdowns (4) and first in routes run. Three touchdowns in the last two games.
Injury Notes – RB Dom Richardson ($3,500) Has not played since Week 5 due to an undisclosed injury, and Baylor RBs aren’t worth investing in as it is.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,400) 100+ rushing yards in all five games played and 20+ carries in four of five. Guaranteed volume, but we’ll also say that the Baylor defense is solid against the run, ranked No. 9 nationally in success rate and giving up just 21.1 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – Backups. RB2 Cameron Dickey has one carry in the last two games. The top three receivers for Tech all play over 70% of the offensive snaps. There’s no rotation going on in the Texas Tech lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,000) Douglas is coming off his best performance of the season with 116 yards and five receptions on nine targets. Hit or miss player based on box scores but has played nearly 80% of snaps over the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,800) For the season, Baylor is allowing just 18.8 FPPG to opposing QBs, but that number jumps to 23 fantasy points per game against B12 opponents. We called Baylor an Air Raid above, but the Red Raiders are the inventors of it, and are back to chucking it around in 2024, ranking 14th nationally at 39.8 attempts per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,500) or Coy Eakin ($4,900) We’ve already harped on the playing time among the Tech starting receivers. Five wideouts have scored 17 or more fantasy points vs. Baylor this season. Kelly is the far and away leader with 30% of the team’s receptions and a quarter of the target share. I’d look to have at least one Tech receiver in your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: USC -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: USC 31.5 – MD 25
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($7,400) Has there been a better transfer addition in the country aside from Woody Marks at USC. Cam Ward comes to mind, but Marks has been a seamless fit, rushing four 100+ yards in four of his six games played, now with 20 or more touches in each of the last three weeks. Maryland doesn’t do any one thing particularly well on offense.
Fade – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,600) The USC wide receiver situation has been the same for a year and a half now. There is no standout option, and they’ll spread targets around to 5-6 different players. The reason for Branch being listed here is his playing time is diminishing, now playing just 45% of snaps over the last two games. Wonder if we see a transfer situation brewing this offseason.
Bargain Bin – WR Makai Lemon ($3,000) Lemon was the team’s best receiver vs. Penn State with 6-73-0 on nine targets. One of several wideouts on the slate that are severely underpriced.
Pivot Play – RB Quentin Joyner ($3,700) No guarantee that Lincoln Riley will give Joyner more touches moving forward…but he needs to. 23 fantasy points last week vs. Penn State with a 75-yard touchdown run, boosting his season long average to 9.8 yards per carry. With the passing game in flux, balance is needed on offense and Marks / Joyner should be getting 30+ touches a game.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,200) Maryland allows just 18.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and ranks 74th in pass D success rate. This is a price point that we can consider Moss, but the arrow is pointing downwards on the USC passing game…maybe to a point where we might even see backup Jayden Maiava. WRs Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,300) and WR Kyron Hudson ($4,400) are consistently playing the most snaps among the USC receivers, but no receiver has more than 17% target share for the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($8,900) Second in the country in targets (78) and third in receptions (55), while likely to be playing in favorable game scripts the rest of the way as Maryland is having a dismal season that’s unlikely to reach bowl eligibility.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($5,500) If not for one busted 75-yard run against Indiana two weeks ago, Hemby would be averaging less than four yards per carry for the season. The ‘strength’ of the USC defense is the run game, ranking 76th in rush D success rate. FWIW, that strength could turn into a weakness now that USC’s top two defenders in the front seven have been lost for the season due to injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Preston Howard ($3,100) or WR Octavian Smith ($3,300) Howard had a season-high seven targets last week vs. Northwestern – which was more than he had combined all season prior to that. Smith seems to have the WR3 spot behind Felton and Prather, playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in three of the last four games.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,000) We’re getting very close to hot seat territory for Mike Locksley, who was never a good hire to begin with, as Maryland was blown out vs. Northwestern. And that was with Locksley taking over play-calling duties from OC Josh Gattis – another questionable hire. I digress. Prather’s 13 target against the Wildcats had much to do with game script, but he’s had at least four receptions in every game this season. He and Felton have combined for 128 of the 232 targets for Maryland.
Best of the Rest – QB Billy Edwards ($7,700) Last Friday vs. Northwestern was the first time all year that Edwards failed to hit 20 fantasy points in a game this season. The USC pass defense is very poor as we saw last week allowing 200+ receiving yards to a tight end. The Trojans are 120th in pass D success rate and have allowed a combined 50 fantasy points to QBs over the last two games. Volume should be high again for Edwards because Maryland cannot run the football effectively.
Injury Notes – n/a
