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LSU vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: LSU -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: LSU 29.5 – Ark 27
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,000) Anderson won’t break any DFS slates, but he’s the model of consistency when it comes to fantasy receivers. The former Alabama transfer has had at least 60 yards in every game in 2024. LSU spreads the ball around enough there you’re not going to get 20+ fantasy performances, but in PPR settings, Anderson is hitting double-digit fantasy points weekly.
Fade – RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,600) I don’t think there was any injury-related news last week with Jackson, so it was a healthy scratch against Ole Miss as the sophomore did not play a single snap. Hitting the portal in 3, 2, 1…
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) Disappointed that Taylor did not hit the over on his prop line with all the injuries at receiver, but this is too low a salary for a tight end averaging over seven targets per game. Arkansas has struggled to defend the position, where tight ends are averaging around 30% more than their seasonal fantasy averages when facing the Razorbacks.
Pivot Play – RB Josh Williams ($4,000) over RB Caden Durham ($5,500) We know who the better player is, that is not in question, but who is the better value? Durham held a slight edge over Williams last week vs. Ole Miss, playing 51% of snaps with 13 rushing attempts and three receptions. Is that a $1,500 difference from nine attempts, 46% snaps played and three receptions for Williams? Arkansas’ strength on defense is limiting the run, ranked 18th in success rate and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing backfields, so it’s not necessary to have either player.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,800) Safest QB on the slate, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. WR Kyren Lacy ($7,500) has not been as consistent as Anderson but has the slate-breaking ability of the LSU receivers, now with 24 targets and over 200 receiving yards in the last two games. Notable that came without WR CJ Daniels ($4,500) in the lineup and he is expected to play Saturday. Daniels was leading all LSU receivers in routes run prior to the injury.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($4,000) As has been the case all year, Hilton is questionable for Saturday.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,800) This Hog has been a target Hog for Arkansas this season, hitting double-digit targets in all five games played with three 100-yard rushing performances. Three receivers have scored at least 19 fantasy points against LSU this season, two of which coming last week.
Fade – WR Tyrone Broden ($3,800) Somehow Broden is still getting over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps despite converting on just 29% of his targets. Let’s reiterate that. Broden has 31 targets this season. He’s caught nine passes.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,500) Much of the focus is on Armstrong and rightfully so, but Sategna seems to be coming on of late with a breakout performance forthcoming. 70+ receiving yards in three of the last five games, with a combined 14 targets in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,800) The Utah transfer has accounted for one rushing touchdown in all six games and has seen increased usage in the passing game with six of his 11 targets coming in the last two games. With Rodney Hill declared out, the only depth behind Jackson this week is a true freshman. Three running backs have scored 18 or more fantasy points against LSU this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($7,200) Won’t rule out Taylen Green this week with a 21.6-point projection at $7.2k, but he’s been questionable this week with a bone bruise on his leg. That’s notable given the lack of rushing production the last two weeks with a combined 1 yard on 22 attempts. And Green isn’t all that attractive of a fantasy prospect if he can’t run.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -13.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ISU 32 – UCF 18.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,500) Please don’t feel the need to have any UCF players in your lineups this week. Hudson gets top billing because of his reasonable price tag, and potential connection with Brown at quarterback with a 7-114-1 on a season-high 13 targets last week.
Fade – WR2. Now we know why Gus Malzahn brought in three transfer receivers over the offseason – none of which have done much of anything to this point. Ja’Varrius Johnson and Trent Whittemore played over 68% of the snaps last week vs. Cincinnati and combined for a whopping 14 receiving yards on four targets. Brutal.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,000) You think a player is trending in the right direction and then serves up a goose egg platter the next week. Pittman is second on the team in targets and had three straight games of at least three receptions prior to the Cincinnati game where he was held out of the box score. Some Big 12 tight ends have found success against Iowa State this season with Michael Trigg (18 fpts) and Kole Taylor (11 fpts).
Pivot Play – QB Jacurri Brown ($8,000) The former Miami transfer was the better of the two QBs that played for UCF on Saturday, but this QB situation does not appear to be settled just yet after scoring 13 points in the loss to Cincinnati as the Knights are on a 3-game skid. Brown’s rushing ability is most intriguing, with 110 yards on 13 attempts. Iowa State is a bad matchup, allowing just 12.2 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Best of the Rest – RB RJ Harvey ($9,400) You’re seeing the impacts of what poor QB play can have on one of the best fantasy running backs in the country. Steady decline in production for Harvey the last few weeks, averaging just five yards a carry in the last three games and failing to hit the century mark in that span. Harvey isn’t a total fade because the Iowa State run defense is just average. 7th in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game on the ground and 88th in success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) –
Georgia vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: Tex 31 – UGA 26
Weather: 82 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($5,600) Etienne’s prop line started out this week in the 70s and has dropped about 8 yards since open, signaling the confidence in Georgia’s ability to run the ball on Texas tonight. That said, Etienne’s involvement in the passing game is really boosting his projection this week with 12 receptions on 12 targets in the last two games combined. Impressive stuff.
Fade –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 8 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.