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Boise State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: BSU -3
O/U Total: 66
Implied Score: BSU 34.5 – UNLV 31.5
Weather: Dome
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($12,000) I’m not sure there’s any amount you could tag Jeanty with on DK or FD and he not be the No. 1 player on the slate and a must-have. Won’t even dive into how good or bad UNLV is at defending the run, it doesn’t matter. Should have 100% ownership – legitimately.
Fade – QB Maddux Madsen ($6,600) Not a complete fade but would rank Madsen fifth among the six QBs available to us on this slate. The pass defenses is the weaker of the two defensive components for the Rebels, ranking 84th in EPA per pass play defensively, 75th in pass D success rate and giving up 21.2 FPPG to opposing QBs. Is Madsen good enough to take advantage of that?
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($3,800) The junior tight end has already surpassed his career stats from the prior two seasons in just six games played, now with 253 yards and three touchdowns, ranked second on the team with 24 targets. UNLV has given up its fair share of fantasy points this season to tight ends with Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden (24 fpts) and Utah State’s Broc Lane (16 fpts).
Pivot Play – WR Latrell Caples ($3,600) The debate of if you go with production or playing time. Backup slot man Chase Penry has been the more productive of the two players the last month or so, but also came when Caples was banged up. If strictly going on Week 7, Caples played 76% of the team’s snaps compared to just 12% for Penry.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($4,900) Team leader in all receiving categories, averaging six targets per game. Mountain West opponents have had their way with this secondary, with five receivers scoring 18 or more fantasy points against the Rebels. Would not discount WR Prince Strachan ($3,300) as he’s played 69% of snaps as the WR3 in the last month, with eight targets in the last two games. WR Austin Bolt ($3,900) has three touchdowns in the last two games.
Injury Notes – Backup RBs Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines are both questionable, with the former being the more likely of the two to play on Friday.
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($8,700) This Boise State secondary has been absolutely cooked by opposing wide receivers, allowing five receivers to score at least 18 fantasy points against them. In fact, of all the teams playing this weekend, Boise State has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country.
Fade – WR Jaden Bradley ($3,200) and RB Greg Burrell ($3,600) Have to go with the guys that barely played last week vs. Oregon State, because UNLV really doesn’t rotate much with its backups. Doesn’t appear that Burrell played last week, while Bradley was a distant fourth among UNLV receivers, playing just 17% of the team’s snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Casey Cain ($3,500) The Texas transfer seems to have solidified the WR3 spot in the UNLV offense, though they only run 3-wide sets less than half the time, running a lot of 12 personnel with two tight ends. Cain does have two touchdowns in the last three games, averaging 15 yards per reception.
Pivot Play – RBs. Boise State is decidedly better defending the run than the pass, allowing just 16.2 FPPG to opposing backfields. A lot of that has to do with game script as the Broncos aren’t trailing in many contests. Analytically, the Boise State run defense is just average, ranking 51st in success rate and 52nd in EPA per run play. One of RB Jai’Den Thomas ($5,800) or RB Kylin James ($4,500) will find the end-zone on Friday.
Best of the Rest – QB Hajj Malik Williams ($8,800) Top rated QB on the slate by a pretty significant margin given his running abilities and the porous Boise State pass defense. The Broncos are giving up 24 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -14.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: USC 35 – Rutg 20.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) –
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Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
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