Louisville vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: UL -6.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: UL 30 – BC 23.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR JaCorey Brooks ($7,300) Team leader in every receiving category with 8 of Louisville’s 18 receiving touchdowns for the year. Just twice this season has Brooks not found the end-zone in a game, and both times that happened he still went over 80 yards receiving so the floor is very high. Four wide receivers have scored 18 or more fantasy points against Boston College this season.
Fade – RB Don Chaney Jr. ($3,700) Isaac Brown dominated the backfield market share the week prior vs. Virginia but the freshman was limited to just nine carries in the loss to Miami (more on why later). Assuming we get back to that this week, Chaney does not appeal to us at this price, and we’d really like to see the other talented freshman Duke Watson get run ahead of Chaney.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Bell ($3,900) Strong two-game stretch from Bell here the last few weeks with a combined 130 receiving yards on 10 targets. Production isn’t the same as Brooks, obviously, but Bell is second in routes run and playing around 86% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,200) Brown had just nine carries against Miami for a few reasons. (1) Brown got banged up at one point, though did return to the field. (2) The freshman had a crucial fumble, and (3) game script as Louisville was trailing much of the contest. Haven’t found any injury updates so we’re proceeding under the impression Brown’s g2g. Boston College is better at defending the run than they showed a week ago, ranking 22nd in success rate, but are also coming off a game in which they allowed 50+ fantasy points to Bhayshul Tuten.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($8,100) BC is average defending the pass in 2024, ranked 70th in success rate, 32nd in EPA per pass defensively and 4th in the ACC in yards allowed through the air. The Eagles haven’t given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing QBs, allowing 17.9 FPPG with just two QBs scoring more than 20 fantasy points all year. WR Caullin Lacy ($4,600) has 50 or more receiving yards in three of the four games since returning from injury, playing around 70% of the team’s snaps. Louisville doesn’t rotate much at all at receiver. TE Mark Redman ($3,400) will see his playing time increase with Jamari Johnson now out for the season. Caught his third touchdown of the year vs. Miami with a season-high five targets. Three tight ends have scored nine or more fantasy points this year vs. BC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,900) Last week looked a bit more like the Castellanos of 2023, rushing for 58 yards on 20 attempts, though had two costly lost fumbles in the loss to Virginia Tech. Just a 19-point projection this week for Castellanos, but this Louisville team gives up a TON of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 28 FPPG to be exact with five QBs scoring at least 23 fantasy points against the Cardinals.
Fade – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,000) Ward only has the highest projection among the BC running backs for us because he can catch some passes out of the backfield. BC split the backfield up three-ways last week, with Ward playing the lowest number of snaps of the three. RB Turbo Richard ($3,700) has seemingly taken over the RB2 job now over Ward, rushing for 50+ yards in each of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – RB Kye Robichaux ($4,400) To close the loop on the BC backfield, it appears to be a three-way split as the trio had 9, 9 and 7 carries, respectively. In terms of playing time, Robichaux was on the field the most vs. Virginia Tech, playing 46% of the snaps. Probably want to avoid a full-fledged committee, but Robichaux seems to have the slight upper hand still, and Louisville is below average against the run, ranking 79th in success rate. TE Kamari Morales ($3,400) has strung together two solid weeks of 10 receptions on 10 targets. Multiple ACC tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points vs. Louisville already.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($5,500) Team leader in all receiving categories aside from touchdowns, playing over 90% of the team’s snaps. Strong volume uptick the last month or so with 35 of his 49 targets coming in the previous four games. Four wide receivers have scored at least 18 fantasy points vs. Louisville.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaedn Skeete ($3,700) Second on the team in targets (30), receptions (18) and routes run. WR Reed Harris ($3,600) is a wide receiver / tight end hybrid that doesn’t see many looks – just 13 targets – but is leading the team with a 44.4 YPC average and two touchdowns. Harris could pay off his salary with one catch.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: BSU -3
O/U Total: 66
Implied Score: BSU 34.5 – UNLV 31.5
Weather: Dome
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($12,000) I’m not sure there’s any amount you could tag Jeanty with on DK or FD and he not be the No. 1 player on the slate and a must-have. Won’t even dive into how good or bad UNLV is at defending the run, it doesn’t matter. Should have 100% ownership – legitimately.
Fade – QB Maddux Madsen ($6,600) Not a complete fade but would rank Madsen fifth among the six QBs available to us on this slate. The pass defenses is the weaker of the two defensive components for the Rebels, ranking 84th in EPA per pass play defensively, 75th in pass D success rate and giving up 21.2 FPPG to opposing QBs. Is Madsen good enough to take advantage of that?
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($3,800) The junior tight end has already surpassed his career stats from the prior two seasons in just six games played, now with 253 yards and three touchdowns, ranked second on the team with 24 targets. UNLV has given up its fair share of fantasy points this season to tight ends with Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden (24 fpts) and Utah State’s Broc Lane (16 fpts).
Pivot Play – WR Latrell Caples ($3,600) The debate of if you go with production or playing time. Backup slot man Chase Penry has been the more productive of the two players the last month or so, but also came when Caples was banged up. If strictly going on Week 7, Caples played 76% of the team’s snaps compared to just 12% for Penry.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($4,900) Team leader in all receiving categories, averaging six targets per game. Mountain West opponents have had their way with this secondary, with five receivers scoring 18 or more fantasy points against the Rebels. Would not discount WR Prince Strachan ($3,300) as he’s played 69% of snaps as the WR3 in the last month, with eight targets in the last two games. WR Austin Bolt ($3,900) has three touchdowns in the last two games.
Injury Notes – Backup RBs Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines are both questionable, with the former being the more likely of the two to play on Friday.
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($8,700) This Boise State secondary has been absolutely cooked by opposing wide receivers, allowing five receivers to score at least 18 fantasy points against them. In fact, of all the teams playing this weekend, Boise State has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country.
Fade – WR Jaden Bradley ($3,200) and RB Greg Burrell ($3,600) Have to go with the guys that barely played last week vs. Oregon State, because UNLV really doesn’t rotate much with its backups. Doesn’t appear that Burrell played last week, while Bradley was a distant fourth among UNLV receivers, playing just 17% of the team’s snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Casey Cain ($3,500) The Texas transfer seems to have solidified the WR3 spot in the UNLV offense, though they only run 3-wide sets less than half the time, running a lot of 12 personnel with two tight ends. Cain does have two touchdowns in the last three games, averaging 15 yards per reception.
Pivot Play – RBs. Boise State is decidedly better defending the run than the pass, allowing just 16.2 FPPG to opposing backfields. A lot of that has to do with game script as the Broncos aren’t trailing in many contests. Analytically, the Boise State run defense is just average, ranking 51st in success rate and 52nd in EPA per run play. One of RB Jai’Den Thomas ($5,800) or RB Kylin James ($4,500) will find the end-zone on Friday.
Best of the Rest – QB Hajj Malik Williams ($8,800) Top rated QB on the slate by a pretty significant margin given his running abilities and the porous Boise State pass defense. The Broncos are giving up 24 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -14.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: USC 35 – Rutg 20.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,800) Monangai got a late ‘questionable’ tag on Saturday morning last week, which made me take him out of at least one of my College Fantasy league lineups. And of course, that questionable designation didn’t mean a thing as Monangai rumbled for 106 yards on 19 rushing attempts in the loss to UCLA. So long as he’s healthy, Rutgers RB1 is always the top play.
Fade – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,000) As per usual. Even in a game where Rutgers scored 30+ points, the Greek Rifle managed just 19 fantasy points for the day. USC is ranked 120th in pass D success rate, so they haven’t improved that significantly on that side of the ball in 2024, but the Trojans are only allowing 16.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR KJ Duff ($3,700) or WR Ben Black ($3,200) I wouldn’t say this is a lost season for Rutgers, but the Knights are going nowhere fast, hitting rock bottom in a home loss to UCLA. When that happens, might as well get your freshman involved like Duff and Black who have combined for 25 targets in the last three weeks. More passes to go around now with TE Kenny Fletcher lost for the year.
Pivot Play – TE Dymere Miller ($4,000) Team leader in targets, receptions, yards and routes run in 2024. USC allowed three different Maryland receivers last week to score over 20 fantasy points against them.
Best of the Rest – WR Christian Dremel ($3,100) Dremel returned from injury vs. UCLA, playing 60% of the team’s offensive snaps which was second behind only Miller. Dremel was Rutgers’ best wide receiver a year ago with 36 receptions and three touchdowns.
Injury Notes – TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,300) Out for the season.
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($8,000) In short, the Rutgers run defense stinks. 119th in success rate. 35.8 FPPG allowed to opposing backfields. Running backs are averaging 30.2% above their seasonal average when facing Rutgers.
Fade – TE Kade Eldridge ($3,200) Admittedly cheating here because there isn’t a high-priced fade option to choose from, unless you’re done with Miller Moss at this point. Eldridge is back to being a non-factor with TE Lake McRee ($3,400) back in the starting lineup, playing 60% of snaps last week with four targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Makai Lemon ($4,000) Lemon continues to be the team’s best wide receiver the last two games with 14 receptions on 17 targets.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,200) You’ll either play the highly-owned Woody Marks or pivot to Moss – don’t think you stack the two together in any lineup. Rutgers is equally as bad at defending the pass in 2024, ranked 92nd in success rate and 54th in EPA per play. For as bad as this season is going for USC, Moss isn’t one of the primary issues.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Choose your fighter between Kyron Hudson, Duce Robinson, Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch as their values are all relatively the same at this point with USC back to its 5–6-man rotation. Both boundary and slot receivers have given this Rutgers defense equal trouble, so no ability to distinguish a pecking order there. Lemon is by far the best option of the bunch.
Injury Notes – n/a
