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Tulane vs. North Texas
Point-Spread: Tul -7.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: Tul 37 – UNT 29.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,400) Kudos to DraftKings for the inclusion of this matchup on the Main Slate as there are several appealing fantasy options for what hopefully is a high-scoring contest. North Texas struggles to defend both the run and pass, but RBs have feasted on this defense, including a 50-burger from Memphis’ Mario Anderson last week. Expect Tulane to lean on the RB1 here to keep UNT off the field on offense. Hughes is arguably the top play of the slate.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($3,800) Backup RBs are irrelevant to us when Makhi Hughes is healthy, and DK has the salaries flipped here because Arnold Barnes is the RB2, not Clayton-Johnson.
Bargain Bin – WR Dontae Fleming ($4,400) Fleming has run the most routes this season of any Tulane wide receiver and has led the Green Wave in receiving three times in seven games.
Pivot Play – QB Darian Mensah ($5,000) The rare occasion that I would not mind stacking both Hughes and Mensah together in the same lineup – with North Texas players as well – in the likelihood this matchup ends up as a shootout. Mensah has hit a bit of a freshman wall in the last five games, but the North Texas defense is very forgiving, allowing 28 FPPG to opposing QBs and are 117th in pass D success rate. Four quarterbacks have scored at least 23 fantasy points vs. UNT this season, three of which went for 30+.
Best of the Rest – WR Mario Williams ($6,100) Team leader in targets (42), receptions (25) and yards with a 17.6 YPC average and 15.7 aDOT. WR Yulkeith Brown ($4,200) is tied with Fleming for second on the team with 26 targets and a team-high three receiving touchdowns. Tulane runs a lot of two-tight end sets, so Brown will be the one to come off the field when they do, running just 56% of the team’s snaps. Any one of the three Tulane starting receivers are potential options.
Injury Notes – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) Did not play vs. Rice but did return to practice this week after what was thought to be a season-ending injury.
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR DT Sheffield ($7,000) We were just a year off on projecting the breakout season for DT Sheffield. The Washington State transfer has found at home at North Texas as the team’s WR1, now with 100+ yards in three of the last four games with back-to-back 14-target games. North Texas is 12th nationally in pass play percentage facing a strong run defense so 50+ passing attempts isn’t out of the question here. Sheffield will be the biggest beneficiary. The three highest scoring receivers to face Tulane this season have all played in the slot, which is where Sheffield lines up 91% of the time.
Fade – WR Landon Sides ($3,200) Sides had a breakout freshman season but was hampered by an injury at the onset of the year and has resulted in diminished playing time, only on the field about 20% of the team’s snaps. UNT does not lack for depth at wide receiver, even without Damon Ward Jr.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,100) The former Houston transfer will be the highest-owned bargain bin option on the slate, now with 26 targets in his last three games. Carnes begain the year as a rotational option but has shifted out to the boundary in the last month and is playing 68% of the team’s snaps in the last four weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($8,900) Not the best matchup for Morris this week as Tulane allows just 19 FPPG to opposing QBs and rank 8th nationally in EPA per pass play defensively. Extremely high upside, though, if the UNT offense clicks against this tough Tulane defense as Morris currently ranks 4th among all quarterbacks in college football in fantasy points scored.
Best of the Rest – Shane Porter ($3,800) The Kansas State transfer has emerged as the team’s RB1 over the last several weeks, largely due to circumstance with multiple injuries at the running back position. Volume is low, averaging just 10 attempts over the last month, but has hit 70 rushing yards in three of the last four. Tulane has the No. 4 rush D in the AAC and give up just 22.1 FPPG to opposing backfields. Multiple UNT receivers in the same lineup is a distinct possibility this week, so WRs Wyatt Young, Blair Conwright, Nick Rempert and Miles Coleman are all worth a look. That foursome combined for 24 targets vs. Memphis last week.
Injury Notes – WR Damon Ward ($4,800) Questionable due to injury, but HC Eric Ward said Ward Jr. (not related) practiced on Tuesday but wasn’t sharp due to so much time missed. Would be a huge risk to start if Ward is suited up for Saturday, but high upside has he had 230 yards on 12 receptions in the opener.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Point-Spread: ND -13
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: ND 32.5 – Navy 19.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 11% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($8,800) After the early-season struggles, Leonard seems to be finding his footing in this Mike Denbrock offense, scoring 24 or more fantasy points in each of the last five games. Navy is only allowing 17.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but have faced just one top 50 fantasy QB to date in Memphis’ Seth Henigan. Overall, quarterbacks are scoring nearly 20% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Midshipmen.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,300) Has surpassed double-digit fantasy points just once this season – in a 49-7 blowout of Stanford. Thomas has yet to play more than 50% of the offensive snaps in a game all season.
Bargain Bin – RB Jadarian Price ($3,200) All of the talking points below pertain to Price as well with regards to the Navy run defense. We’ve seen an uptick in production the last two games from Price with over 170 yards rushing and a touchdown. The caveat is that both contests were double-digit wins for the Irish. If this game against Navy is close, does Notre Dame still mix in carries for Price? This is a double-digit point spread, fwiw.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,100) Navy is 118th in rush D success rate and 98th in EPA per run play defensively. Fully expect the Irish to ground and pound on Saturday with Love and Leonard in the run game. Difficult not to have a higher floor than what Love provides, having found the end-zone in every single game this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Mitchell Evans ($3,800) Just when I counted you out, you brought me right back in. Evans played 75% of the snaps last week vs. Georgia Tech with a season-high four receptions on five targets. Still minimal yardage, but…progress! One Notre Dame writer openly expressed the thought that Evans wouldn’t be a factor for the rest of the year. Navy allows a combined 38 FPPG to opposing WRs this season so potentially Beaux Collins, Kris Mitchell or Jaden Greathouse may be an option. Absolutely do not put two Notre Dame wideouts in the same lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy:
Top Play(s) – QB Blake Horvath ($8,400) The Navy offense is far more diversified in 2024 but the core principles remain the same – keep the ball on the ground behind the team’s leader in quarterback Blake Horvath who is currently QB9 in college fantasy football, averaging 35 FPPG on DK. Expect this game to be played in a phone booth, though, as Navy may struggle throwing the ball for the first time all year facing a secondary that is 4th nationally in pass D success rate. Horvath will likely run it 20 times on Saturday.
Fade – TE Cody Howard ($3,300) Tight end usage hasn’t increased much with the new offensive coordinator, with just three receptions on five targets. Howard would need to catch a touchdown to hit value, and he’s got just one on the year.
Bargain Bin – RB / WR Brandon Chapman ($3,400) Second on the team in receptions (9), targets (11) and touchdowns (3), while also third on the team in carries with 170 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC.
Pivot Play – RB / WR Eli Heidenreich ($6,100) Heidenreich is a running back by trade, but the team’s leading receiver by a wide margin with nearly 50% of the Navy’s total receiving production and five of the 11 receiving touchdowns. The difference between Navy this year and last has been explosive plays in the passing game. Listen to these stats: In 2023, Navy had 14 pass plays of 25 yards or more. In just six games in 2024, Navy already has 13 pass plays of 25 yards or more. If the Midshipmen pull one out of the bag on Notre Dame, expect Heidenreich to be on the receiving end.
Best of the Rest – FB Alex Tecza ($4,500) Our belief is that Navy will primarily keep the ball on the ground (obvious), particularly when facing this elite Notre Dame secondary. That means a lot of Horvath and Tecza on the ground, as the fullback has 35% of Navy’s rushing touchdowns. The Irish are just 85th in rush D success rate, so they can be had on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -14
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: Bama 35 – Mizzou 21
Weather: 80 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.