Tulane vs. North Texas
Point-Spread: Tul -7.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: Tul 37 – UNT 29.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,400) Kudos to DraftKings for the inclusion of this matchup on the Main Slate as there are several appealing fantasy options for what hopefully is a high-scoring contest. North Texas struggles to defend both the run and pass, but RBs have feasted on this defense, including a 50-burger from Memphis’ Mario Anderson last week. Expect Tulane to lean on the RB1 here to keep UNT off the field on offense. Hughes is arguably the top play of the slate.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($3,800) Backup RBs are irrelevant to us when Makhi Hughes is healthy, and DK has the salaries flipped here because Arnold Barnes is the RB2, not Clayton-Johnson.
Bargain Bin – WR Dontae Fleming ($4,400) Fleming has run the most routes this season of any Tulane wide receiver and has led the Green Wave in receiving three times in seven games.
Pivot Play – QB Darian Mensah ($5,000) The rare occasion that I would not mind stacking both Hughes and Mensah together in the same lineup – with North Texas players as well – in the likelihood this matchup ends up as a shootout. Mensah has hit a bit of a freshman wall in the last five games, but the North Texas defense is very forgiving, allowing 28 FPPG to opposing QBs and are 117th in pass D success rate. Four quarterbacks have scored at least 23 fantasy points vs. UNT this season, three of which went for 30+.
Best of the Rest – WR Mario Williams ($6,100) Team leader in targets (42), receptions (25) and yards with a 17.6 YPC average and 15.7 aDOT. WR Yulkeith Brown ($4,200) is tied with Fleming for second on the team with 26 targets and a team-high three receiving touchdowns. Tulane runs a lot of two-tight end sets, so Brown will be the one to come off the field when they do, running just 56% of the team’s snaps. Any one of the three Tulane starting receivers are potential options.
Injury Notes – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) Did not play vs. Rice but did return to practice this week after what was thought to be a season-ending injury.
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR DT Sheffield ($7,000) We were just a year off on projecting the breakout season for DT Sheffield. The Washington State transfer has found at home at North Texas as the team’s WR1, now with 100+ yards in three of the last four games with back-to-back 14-target games. North Texas is 12th nationally in pass play percentage facing a strong run defense so 50+ passing attempts isn’t out of the question here. Sheffield will be the biggest beneficiary. The three highest scoring receivers to face Tulane this season have all played in the slot, which is where Sheffield lines up 91% of the time.
Fade – WR Landon Sides ($3,200) Sides had a breakout freshman season but was hampered by an injury at the onset of the year and has resulted in diminished playing time, only on the field about 20% of the team’s snaps. UNT does not lack for depth at wide receiver, even without Damon Ward Jr.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,100) The former Houston transfer will be the highest-owned bargain bin option on the slate, now with 26 targets in his last three games. Carnes begain the year as a rotational option but has shifted out to the boundary in the last month and is playing 68% of the team’s snaps in the last four weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($8,900) Not the best matchup for Morris this week as Tulane allows just 19 FPPG to opposing QBs and rank 8th nationally in EPA per pass play defensively. Extremely high upside, though, if the UNT offense clicks against this tough Tulane defense as Morris currently ranks 4th among all quarterbacks in college football in fantasy points scored.
Best of the Rest – Shane Porter ($3,800) The Kansas State transfer has emerged as the team’s RB1 over the last several weeks, largely due to circumstance with multiple injuries at the running back position. Volume is low, averaging just 10 attempts over the last month, but has hit 70 rushing yards in three of the last four. Tulane has the No. 4 rush D in the AAC and give up just 22.1 FPPG to opposing backfields. Multiple UNT receivers in the same lineup is a distinct possibility this week, so WRs Wyatt Young, Blair Conwright, Nick Rempert and Miles Coleman are all worth a look. That foursome combined for 24 targets vs. Memphis last week.
Injury Notes – WR Damon Ward ($4,800) Questionable due to injury, but HC Eric Ward said Ward Jr. (not related) practiced on Tuesday but wasn’t sharp due to so much time missed. Would be a huge risk to start if Ward is suited up for Saturday, but high upside has he had 230 yards on 12 receptions in the opener.
Oklahoma vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -20.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Miss 34.5 – OU 14
Weather: 69 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob Jordan ($4,200) I’m unfamiliar with the freshman walk-on receiver but the 5-foot-9 slot man provided a spark to the OU passing game last week in his first game action of the year, catching six passes for 86 yards on eight targets. Oklahoma won’t win this game, but at least Jackson Arnold gives the OU receivers a shot at being fantasy relevant.
Fade – RB Jovantae Barnes ($3,900) Barnes is cheap enough to at least consider, but don’t see this Oklahoma rushing attack finding any success against Walter Nolen and Co. The Rebels are No. 1 nationally in rush D success rate and allowing just 14.5 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Bauer Sharp ($3,200) Three or more receptions in each of the last five games for Sharp who needs to be a factor in the passing game with all the injuries at wideout. Ole Miss has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing four players to score at least eight fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – QB Jackson Arnold ($6,100) Best chance OU has in this matchup is either the defense plays lights out – something they haven’t done since early September – or Jackson Arnold slings the ball around 40+ times with relative success. Garrett Nussmeier, a similar QB in terms of stature and skillset, did score 25 fantasy points in his matchup with Ole Miss, but was the only QB this season to score more than 13 fantasy points vs. the Rebels.
Best of the Rest – WR J.J. Hester ($3,500) Hester saw a spike in playing time last week with 76% of the team’s offensive snaps and was targeted 10 times in the loss to South Carolina. WR Brenan Thompson ($4,200) now leads the Sooners in routes run in 2024, and ranks second on the team with 28 targets, playing 73% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – All starting OU receivers remain OUT, with Deion Burks listed as questionable. Burks was in pregame warmups last week, catching passes from Jackson Arnold, but never suited up vs. South Carolina. Might be a week or two away still. Gavin Sawchuk is doubtful to play.
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($9,600) Despite being questionable heading into the LSU matchup, Harris still wound up topping 100 yards receiving on 10 targets with a TD, continuing his tremendous season as a top five fantasy wide receiver. Harris is not listed on the injury report this week so he should be full-go.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($6,900) Won’t go as far as to say completely fade Parrish this week, but I’d limit exposure here. Lane Kiffin mentioned that Parrish was not healthy heading into the LSU matchup two weeks ago, and that was reflective of the 14-11 rushing split between him and RB Ulysses Bentley ($3,000). Parrish was not listed on the injury report this week, so maybe the bye did him some good from a health perspective, but this 50-50 timeshare might be a thing moving forward.
Bargain Bin – WR Cayden Lee ($3,700) Lineup changes for the Rebel receivers last time out as Lee started in the slot with WR Jordan Watkins ($4,200) shifting outside. The move paid off as Lee hit 100+ yards receiving with a team-high 13 targets. As a result, WR Antwane Wells Jr. ($4,200) played just 56% of the snaps and was shut out in the stat column. Just like the backfield, we’ll be paying attention to see if this was a one-week thing or a permanent move for the rest of the season.
Pivot Play – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,400) The season started strong for Prieskorn, but the TE1 has surpassed 15 receiving yards just once in the last five games. I’ll chalk that up to increased depth at the wide receiver position. That said, OU has really struggled to defend the position, allowing the last three tight ends faced to score double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,400) Don’t mind playing Dart weekly because of his high floor / high ceiling potential, but a 23-point projection at this salary doesn’t warrant much exposure. OU is giving up just 13.5 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: IU -7
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: IU 30 – UW 23
Weather: 57 degrees / 16% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,300) We won’t have much exposure to Washington this week as their salaries are a touch higher than their weekly production output and the Indiana defense is solid against both the run and pass. Coleman gets the slight nod as the Huskies top play as Indiana gives up around 21 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and can usually count on 14-15 touches per game from the RB1 if the game is competitive.
Fade – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($3,400) Notable in the snap counts that Hunter is giving way to freshman Rashid Williams in the last several weeks. Hunter was on the field over 70% of the time in the first four weeks. That has now sunk to around 50%, with Williams being rotated in more. The freshman had six targets in the loss to Iowa.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,300) The Washington TE1 is third on the team in receptions and targets, playing 91% of the team’s offensive snaps. Three tight ends have scored 10 or more fantasy points vs. Indiana this season.
Pivot Play – WR Giles Jackson ($5,400) Jackson leads all Washington receivers in receptions (47) and targets (58). Two of the three highest scoring wideouts to face Indiana this season play in the slot. Jackson plays inside 76% of the time.
Best of the Rest – WR Denzel Boston ($7,400) Just once this season has Boston failed to score a touchdown in a game for the Huskies in his redshirt freshman season. And in that one contest, Boston was still targeted 11 times, so an incredibly high floor here for the team’s WR1. QB Will Rogers ($5,600) is having a solid season for Washington with 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions, but don’t love the matchup here vs. a Hoosiers’ defense that will get after pocket passers like we saw with Dylan Raiola last week. Indiana allows just 11.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($5,500) All the guy does is run for touchdowns. Aside from the opener against Florida International, Ellison has at least one rushing touchdown in each of the last six games. Volume is low, which is why Ellison is not a must-have, averaging right around 10-11 carries per game. With a backup QB, you’d like to infer that Indiana will run the ball a bit more than normal on Saturday, particularly given that is the weakness of the U-dub defense.
Fade – n/a. There isn’t an Indiana starter or backup that’s overpriced to a point where you say they’re not an option. Just make sure you don’t have Donaven McCulley or EJ Williams in a lineup mistakenly as they both hit the portal this past week.
Bargain Bin – RB Ty Son Lawton ($4,900) Indiana is the No. 3 rushing offense in the B1G and Washington ranks 80th in rush D success rate. Maybe not optimal to have both in a lineup, but rostering either Ellison or Lawton is a sound strategy given the successes so far of the Indiana run game. Five rushing touchdowns in the last four games for the James Madison transfer who has scored 15 or more fantasy points in every contest during that stretch.
Pivot Play – QB Tayven Jackson ($6,600) There was no drop off when Jackson came in for the injured Kurtis Rourke, completing 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and two scores in the rout of Nebraska. It was announced Sunday morning that Rourke would not play this week for the Hoosiers, resulting in Jackson getting the nod vs. Washington. No guarantee this works, but HC Curt Cignetti has turned Jordan McCloud and Todd Centeio into fantasy stars at the QB position. Surely, there’s potential to do the same with a former 4-star recruit like Jackson.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Five-man rotation at receiver, but they’re all relatively cheap for their production. Elijah Sarratt paces the group, leading the Hoosiers in targets, receptions, yards and routes run. Ohio transfer Miles Cross has come on in the last month and a half with at least five targets in four of his last five games with three receiving touchdowns. Omar Cooper Jr. splits time with Cross on the boundary, playing 55% of the team’s offensive snaps. And Texas Tech transfer Myles Price has at least three receptions in six of seven games played. You can mix and match your GPP lineups with any of the Indiana wideouts.
Injury Notes – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,100) Officially out for this week, but potential to be back on November 2nd for Indiana’s road matchup with Michigan State.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -25.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: OSU 37.5 – Neb 12
Weather: 56 degrees / 22% rain / 11 mph winds
Nebraska:
Just one player is projected to score double-digit fantasy points with the lowest implied team total on the slate. The Nebraska pass-catchers are the only group of mild interest because they’re so cheap with a likely pass-oriented game script. WR Jacory Barney Jr. ($3,200) continues to see more and more involvement in the offense with a season-high 10 targets vs. Indiana last week, while also nabbing a rushing touchdown. The connection between Dylan Raiola and TE Thomas Fidone ($3,200) seems to be growing as well, with 12 of his 20 receptions coming in the last three weeks. Indiana’s pass rush harassed Raiola last week, much like we anticipate from Ohio State, and Fidone was the safety blanket in the middle of the field.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($7,900) Aside from the unfortunate slide at the end of the Oregon game, Howard acquitted himself well, completing 80% of his passes for 300+ yards and three total touchdowns. That was on the road against a good Oregon secondary. I’ve predicted twice now that Howard would fail to score 20 fantasy points the last two weeks and he’s topped 30 fantasy points in both matchups. As high a floor as you can get with Howard who has scored at least 22 fantasy points in every game this season. (Of course, this will be the week it doesn’t happen now that I mention it).
Fade – QB Quinshon Judkins ($7,100) Hopefully this doesn’t backfire but call it a hunch that Judkins doesn’t see his normal allotment of snaps / carries this week with OSU being a heavy favorite. HC Ryan Day said on Tuesday that Judkins is feeling better than he was going into the Oregon game, but a report came out that he did undergo a minor procedure on his hand. Not expected to miss any time, but I’d imagine OSU would rather lean on the completely healthy TreVeyon Henderson instead this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,400) Tate will get listed here every week. Third option in the passing game but continues to play 80% of the team’s snaps and third most routes run among OSU receivers.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,000) The split backfield between Henderson and Judkins is disappointing for fantasy purposes but good for OSU as they’ll likely have both backs fresh and ready to unleash by the time the CFP playoff rolls around. Henderson looked explosive on that 53-yard run vs. Oregon two weeks ago. Nebraska is weaker against the run this season, ranked 75th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,100) and / or WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,900) I’d lean against stacking the two together in the same lineup, but it’s not unreasonable given that the duo account for 13 of Ohio State’s 16 receiving touchdowns this year with a combined 51% of the team’s target share. A mix of both inside and outside receivers have fared well against the Cornhuskers so no preference between the two.
Injury Notes – Just monitor Quinshon Judkins before lock in case there’s any concern he doesn’t play as much this week.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Point-Spread: ND -13
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: ND 32.5 – Navy 19.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 11% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($8,800) After the early-season struggles, Leonard seems to be finding his footing in this Mike Denbrock offense, scoring 24 or more fantasy points in each of the last five games. Navy is only allowing 17.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but have faced just one top 50 fantasy QB to date in Memphis’ Seth Henigan. Overall, quarterbacks are scoring nearly 20% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Midshipmen.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,300) Has surpassed double-digit fantasy points just once this season – in a 49-7 blowout of Stanford. Thomas has yet to play more than 50% of the offensive snaps in a game all season.
Bargain Bin – RB Jadarian Price ($3,200) All of the talking points below pertain to Price as well with regards to the Navy run defense. We’ve seen an uptick in production the last two games from Price with over 170 yards rushing and a touchdown. The caveat is that both contests were double-digit wins for the Irish. If this game against Navy is close, does Notre Dame still mix in carries for Price? This is a double-digit point spread, fwiw.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,100) Navy is 118th in rush D success rate and 98th in EPA per run play defensively. Fully expect the Irish to ground and pound on Saturday with Love and Leonard in the run game. Difficult not to have a higher floor than what Love provides, having found the end-zone in every single game this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Mitchell Evans ($3,800) Just when I counted you out, you brought me right back in. Evans played 75% of the snaps last week vs. Georgia Tech with a season-high four receptions on five targets. Still minimal yardage, but…progress! One Notre Dame writer openly expressed the thought that Evans wouldn’t be a factor for the rest of the year. Navy allows a combined 38 FPPG to opposing WRs this season so potentially Beaux Collins, Kris Mitchell or Jaden Greathouse may be an option. Absolutely do not put two Notre Dame wideouts in the same lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy:
Top Play(s) – QB Blake Horvath ($8,400) The Navy offense is far more diversified in 2024 but the core principles remain the same – keep the ball on the ground behind the team’s leader in quarterback Blake Horvath who is currently QB9 in college fantasy football, averaging 35 FPPG on DK. Expect this game to be played in a phone booth, though, as Navy may struggle throwing the ball for the first time all year facing a secondary that is 4th nationally in pass D success rate. Horvath will likely run it 20 times on Saturday.
Fade – TE Cody Howard ($3,300) Tight end usage hasn’t increased much with the new offensive coordinator, with just three receptions on five targets. Howard would need to catch a touchdown to hit value, and he’s got just one on the year.
Bargain Bin – RB / WR Brandon Chapman ($3,400) Second on the team in receptions (9), targets (11) and touchdowns (3), while also third on the team in carries with 170 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC.
Pivot Play – RB / WR Eli Heidenreich ($6,100) Heidenreich is a running back by trade, but the team’s leading receiver by a wide margin with nearly 50% of the Navy’s total receiving production and five of the 11 receiving touchdowns. The difference between Navy this year and last has been explosive plays in the passing game. Listen to these stats: In 2023, Navy had 14 pass plays of 25 yards or more. In just six games in 2024, Navy already has 13 pass plays of 25 yards or more. If the Midshipmen pull one out of the bag on Notre Dame, expect Heidenreich to be on the receiving end.
Best of the Rest – FB Alex Tecza ($4,500) Our belief is that Navy will primarily keep the ball on the ground (obvious), particularly when facing this elite Notre Dame secondary. That means a lot of Horvath and Tecza on the ground, as the fullback has 35% of Navy’s rushing touchdowns. The Irish are just 85th in rush D success rate, so they can be had on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -14
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: Bama 35 – Mizzou 21
Weather: 80 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Marcus Carroll ($4,000) With Nate Noel showing up as doubtful on the injury report, expect Carroll to get the majority of carries on Saturday, especially with Missouri also starting a backup quarterback most likely as well. The Georgia State transfer has been adequate in stepping in for Noel, rushing for 130 yards and four scores over the last two games, now leading Missouri in rushing touchdowns in 2024. Bama is average against the run this season, allowing 23 FPPG to opposing backfields and 54th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($6,300) Pyne completed just 10 of 21 passes vs. Auburn last week in relief of Cook, and Alabama’s secondary is far superior to Auburn. If Missouri’s passing game was clicking this season, maybe we’d give Pyne a look, but the Tigers are just 10th in the SEC in yards per game despite having a primarily veteran roster.
Bargain Bin – WR Joshua Manning ($3,100) With Mookie Cooper likely out, Manning would be the receiver to step in his place on the outside. Fits the spot better as a 6-foot-2 option rather than Cooper who is less than 6-feet tall. Four targets in each of the last two games, including 68 yards and a TD vs. UMass in Week 7.
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($7,500) Burden will likely see low ownership as a result of Drew Pyne starting, but the junior receiver was still targeted 10 times last Saturday with Pyne playing a good chunk of the contest. Somehow this will be Burden’s first time facing Alabama in his career.
Best of the Rest – WR Theo Wease ($5,900) Same argument for Burden as with Wease here as he was targeted nine times last week vs. Auburn and did not leave the field, playing 97% of the team’s offensive snaps. Leads Missouri in targets and first in routes run.
Injury Notes – Walking wounded. Nate Noel is out. Brady Cook and Mookie Cooper are doubtful.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan Williams ($7,100) Jalen Milroe simply did not stop throwing the ball to Ryan Williams last week vs. Tennessee. Seems like Alabama made it a concerted effort to get the 17-year-old the football after the South Carolina game, which was the first time all season in which Williams did not find the end-zone. The efficiency was poor with just a 43% catch rate against the Vols, but 19 targets and 73 yards receiving with a touchdown is what we want to see.
Fade – RB Justice Haynes ($4,500) Haynes did hit value at this pricing a week ago with a rushing touchdown, while also catching four passes on six targets. His YPC average continues to drop, averaging three yards per attempt over the last three games. And as we mentioned in previous writeups, RB Jam Miller ($5,100) is getting the goal-line work with a 14-6 advantage in red-zone carries this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Germie Bernard ($4,200) Again, too cheap for a player who has 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last three games. Similar to some other teams on this slate, Alabama has not found a legitimate third option at receiver, so Bernard / Williams are dominating the target share at 49%.
Pivot Play – WR Kendrick Law ($3,300) IF, and that’s a big if, a third option emerges for the Tide, Law is the likeliest candidate at this point. Came back from injury last week to play 48% of the team’s snaps with five targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,300) Weekly conundrum of if it’s beneficial for us to spend up to grab Milroe. My opinion is not this week. Missouri’s secondary is above average, ranking 14th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Unlikely that this game shoots out with all the injuries on the Missouri.
Injury Notes – n/a – Bama is really healthy on offense.
BYU vs. UCF
Point-Spread: BYU -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: BYU 29 – UCF 26.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 5% rain / 12 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($5,800) We were curious to see Martin’s workload in his second game back from injury, whether he’d split with Hinkley Ropati again like they did in Week 7 or give the sophomore the lion’s share of the carries. Turned out to be the latter, rushing for 120 yards on 20 attempts compared to just six for Ropati. UCF’s run defense is the strength of that side of the ball, allowing just 21 FPPG to opposing backfields, so we don’t view Martin as a must-play, but he’s the most trustworthy option on the BYU side.
Fade – RB Hinckley Ropati ($3,700) Ropati was an option last week given the horrid Oklahoma State run defense and the unknown of how the backfield split would be between he and LJ Martin. Not the case this week as the clear RB2, on the road, against a good run defense in UCF.
Bargain Bin – WR Keelan Marion ($4,000) In case you need a lineup filler at receiver for $4k. Last week was the first time Marion scored double-digit fantasy points this season, catching a touchdown on just two targets. Low volume receiver but has played over 70% of the team’s snaps in two of the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($8,000) I had to double check multiple sites to make sure that it was accurate, but Retzlaff has thrown for exactly 218 yards in each of the last three games. Three times in the last five games Retzlaff has scored over 30 fantasy points, and now faces the 12th ranked pass defense in the B12 in UCF that allows 250 yards per game through the air.
Best of the Rest – WR Darius Lassiter ($5,800) Lassiter has turned into a legitimate WR1 for the Cougars, now with double-digit targets in four of his last five games, with as many receiving touchdowns in that span as well. Strong matchup upcoming against a poor UCF secondary.
Injury Notes – We’ll check to see if Kody Epps is back from injury this week. He’d impact Marion’s place in the starting lineup potentially.
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,200) Even with a non-existent passing game against loaded boxes, Harvey still rushed for 196 yards and two scores on 25 attempts on the road last week vs. Iowa State. BYU’s defense is good, but the rush defense average, ranking 72nd in success rate and 106th in EPA per run play. Harvey is a good play still.
Fade – WRs Not Named Kobe Hudson. Receivers not named Kobe Hudson have combined for seven receptions for 75 yards in the last two weeks with Jacurri Brown as the starter. Can’t risk playing any of those options for a team that might throw for less than 100 yards on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,500) Probably the second-best pass-catching option on UCF outside of Hudson, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps the last two weeks. Not tight end has scored more than seven fantasy points vs. BYU this season, so rostering Pittman is a last resort.
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,200) Hudson’s 20 targets the last two games account for 49% of the team’s target share in that span. While the BYU secondary is very good, they’re prone to giving up fantasy points to receivers mostly because of their 7-0 record and opponents being in trailing positions much of the time. Five receivers have scored at least 15 fantasy points against BYU this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Jacurri Brown ($7,000) The UCF passing game is completely broken, so Brown isn’t a major priority, but his running ability makes him a fantasy asset. 51 combined fantasy points in the last two games against two pretty good defenses in Cincinnati and Iowa State.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -7
O/U Total: 67
Implied Score: TCU 37 – TT 30
Weather: 78 degrees / 7% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,800) This is likely a 25+ carry game for Brooks one would think. For starters, he hits that mark in a normal week, even last Saturday against Baylor when the Red Raiders were down double-digits. Secondly, TCU’s defense is very good against the pass, and not so good against the run, ranking 78th in success rate and 83rd in EPA per run play.
Fade – RB Cameron Dickey ($3,300) A grand total of five rushing attempts in the last three games for Texas Tech running backs not named Tahj Brooks. The days of a workhorse College Fantasy running back are still alive in 2024.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,500) Major spike in production for the former Florida transfer the last two weeks with a combined 14 receptions on 19 targets, while finding the end-zone three times last Saturday vs. Baylor – two of which coming in the first half while the game was somewhat in reach.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,400) This is a good TCU secondary, ranking 29th in EPA per pass and 17th in pass D success rate. That said, the Frogs are allowing 21 FPPG to opposing QBs – 22.6% above their seasonal average when facing TCU – and these are two of the pass-happiest teams in the country, both averaging over 40 attempts per game. There’s going to be a lot of plays run in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,800) Kelly remains the team leader in targets (70), receptions (54) and routes run. WR Coy Eakin ($4,100) leads the Red Raiders with five receiving touchdowns, though his production is very hit or miss this season, with just 32 combined receiving yards in the last two games. Eakin is second in routes run, playing over 70% of the offensive snaps each week. Stacking two Tech receivers together is possible, but probably not with Brooks in the same lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($8,500) Good matchup for Hoover this week with one of the highest game totals on the slate. Tech struggles to defend the pass, allowing 27 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and rank 109th in pass D success rate. The only downside to Hoover right now is something we’ll cover in the pivot play section below, that could continue into this week which would take Hoover off the field for a few snaps.
Fade – RB Cam Cook ($5,700) Sounds like Cook will be replaced as RB1 potentially this week with HC Sonny Dykes stating that RB Trent Battle ($4,000) is “the closest to securing the RB1 due to size and experience.” In his first game action of the season, Battle rumbled for 45 yards on eight carries, while Cook finished with just 13 yards on nine attempts vs. Utah.
Bargain Bin – WR JP Richardson ($3,800) Second on the team in routes run, third in targets (43) and third in receptions (32). The appealing part to Richardson vs. a Savion Williams or Eric McAlister is that he’s not splitting snaps with anyone in the slot. Williams and McAlister play in the same spot.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($5,100) The TCU – Utah game was well past my bedtime last Saturday, so I did not get to see much / any of the game. But I woke up to a surprise, seeing that Savion Williams had seven rushing attempts for 71 yards by taking direct snaps in the wildcat formation. Unsure of if this will be a constant moving forward, but certainly adds value to a top three wideout on the TCU roster.
Best of the Rest – WR Jack Bech ($8,000) Last week was the first time since early September that Bech hadn’t found the end-zone. Team leader in all receiving categories. The three highest scoring receivers to face Texas Tech this season all play outside on the boundary with Josh Cameron, Tet McMillan and Xzavier Henderson all hitting 23 fantasy points in their matchups with the Red Raiders. Bech plays the same position as those three.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -21.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Oreg 38 – Illini 16.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 75% rain / 6 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Josh McCray ($4,000) You’ll probably have an uneasy feeling putting McCray into your lineups vs. Oregon as a three-TD underdog. Which is understandable. But 33 carries in the last two games in place of the injured Kaden Feagin, and Oregon’s run defense is somewhat suspect. The Ducks allow 23 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 102nd in EPA per rush play defensively. Not great.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($5,700) Credit Altmyer for having one heck of a season so far, with a 15-1 touchdown to interception ratio and the 6th best passer rating in the B1G. This is just not a great matchup as Oregon’s strength is the secondary, allowing just 11.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Ohio State’s Will Howard is the only QB this season to score more than 13 fantasy points against the Ducks.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,200) Two double-digit fantasy point performances in the last month for Arkin, who was on the field for 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in the win over Michigan on Saturday. Tight ends are averaging 8.3 FPPG against Oregon this season.
Pivot Play – WR Pat Bryant ($6,400) or WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,400) We’ve hammered this point home ad nauseum but continues to be the case as Bryant / Franklin combine for 8 of the team’s 15 receiving touchdowns, with 52% of the team’s targets. We’re into Week 9 and a third reliable option in the Illinois passing game has yet to emerge.
Best of the Rest – n/a. McCray, Franklin and Bryant are the only options to consider on the Illini side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan James ($7,800) There was some concern here this week because James did not play much in the second half of the win over Purdue last Friday, but all indications are that it was more about preservation than any kind of sustained injury. The Illinois run defense is below average, ranking 114th in rush D success rate and 70th in EPA per run play.
Fade – n/a. All Oregon players are priced appropriately but check the injury section for a player to likely avoid.
Bargain Bin – WR Traeshon Holden ($3,800) HC Dan Lanning didn’t say much on Holden’s status this week outside of “he’s available.” Listening to an Oregon podcast, both took the quotes from Lanning as Holden will play the entirety of the game this week against the Illini after not seeing the field vs. Purdue as a result of the spitting incident. Holden was the team’s second most productive receiver leading up to the Ohio State game.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($4,200) Don’t understand this pricing for Stewart after his resurgence the last two weeks with over 230 receiving yards and 11 catches. Will be very interested to see how Saturday plays out with Holden back in the lineup. Was Stewart’s production in these last two games a result of Holden simply not being on the field? Or is the first-round college fantasy draft pick here to stay?
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,300) Purdue was the first opponent to hold Gabriel under 20 fantasy points this season. Not saying much with that, though, as Gabriel did not play in the fourth quarter because of the 35-0 blowout. That said, Illinois has done well in limiting fantasy points to opposing QBs, allowing just 14.7 FPPG. WR Tez Johnson ($7,200) continues to be Gabriel’s favorite target, with at least seven receptions in each of the last five games. Truly can’t go wrong with either player.
Injury Notes – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,500) Ferguson was seen at practice this week but is likely questionable for this matchup and can see the Ducks preserving him for later on in the season in a game where they’re favored by three touchdowns. TE Kenyon Sadiq ($3,200) split reps with Patrick Herbert but was the favored option of the top in the passing game with four targets.
Maryland vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -4
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Minn 25 – MD 21
Weather: 52 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($8,800) Not breaking any news here. Felton is second nationally behind only Nick Nash in targets and receptions, with double-digit targets in five of the last six games. The only game Felton didn’t hit at least 10 targets was vs. Indiana when he didn’t play in the second half.
Fade – QB Billy Edwards ($7,700) There’s a larger pool of quarterbacks available to us on the Main Slate so we can be picky about who we’re interested in selecting. You love the volume with Edwards, with 40 or more passing attempts in four of the last five games, including 50+ in each of the last two weeks. But do we really think a Maryland – Minnesota contest is going to be a shootout? The Gophers allow just eight (yes, 8.0) FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Minnesota is in the top five nationally in EPA per pass play defensively.
Bargain Bin – WR Octavian Smith ($4,500) Smith’s playing time has spiked in the last two weeks, playing 84% of the offensive snaps with a season-high 10 targets last week vs. USC. Seems to be firmly established now as the WR3.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,200) Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last five games for Prather who has seen increased volume in the last two weeks with a combined 23 targets. Two things working in favor of Prather moving forward. (1) Maryland can’t run the football, and (2) centralized target between he and Felton who combine for 53% of the team’s total targets. Stacking multiple Maryland WRs in the same lineup, without Edwards, is a viable strategy.
Best of the Rest – RB Roman Hemby ($5,300) Hemby teeters on the edge of completely irrelevant after rushing for just 12 yards on four carries vs. USC as the Terps are 15th in the B1G in rushing. But Minnesota is very average defending the run and Hemby’s usage in the passing game (six receptions on six targets last week) keeps him in the pool.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($8,000) Maryland is equally average defending the run and the pass, so Minnesota should be able to move the ball effectively on Saturday. And even if Taylor cannot get any traction like he did vs. UCLA in Week 7, averaging just 1.9 YPC, his effectiveness coming out of the backfield has been one of the bigger surprises in college fantasy this season. Did not expect Taylor to be a 60+ target running back in the offseason. Taylor is similarly appealing to a dual-threat QB in that there’s multiple pathways for him to hit value.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($4,500) Major has surpassed double-digit fantasy points just once since Darius Taylor returned from injury, and that was against an inferior opponent in Rhode Island.
Bargain Bin – QB Max Brosmer ($5,000) Starting a Minnesota QB on a main slate can ruin your Saturday pretty quickly. But the New Hampshire transfer has attempted at least 37 passes in three of the last four games. So, we like the passing volume. In four B1G games this season, Maryland has allowed three of the quarterbacks to hit 20 fantasy points. If Brosmer hits that mark, he easily hits value.
Pivot Play – WR Daniel Jackson ($4,500) If you don’t want to play Brosmer, and I get why you wouldn’t, you should absolutely consider Jackson who leads the Gophers in every receiving category aside from touchdowns. Of the teams playing this weekend, Maryland has given up the fifth most fantasy points this season to opposing WRs.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijah Spencer ($3,800) For the same reasons to consider Jackson above. Spencer is second on the team among wide receivers in targets and receptions. WR Le’Meke Brockington ($3,500) to my surprise plays 80% of the team’s snaps with little production to show for it. Third in routes run, averaging close to 16 YPC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State vs. California
Point-Spread: Cal -10
O/U Total: 49
Implied Score: Cal 29.5 – OSU 19.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Hankerson ($7,700) Don’t expect Jam Griffin to be back anytime soon, so this’ll again be the Anthony Hankerson show with 20+ carries in three of the last four games. California’s rush defense is the weakness of that side of the ball, ranked 93rd in rush D success rate and 80th in EPA per run play.
Fade – WR Taz Reddicks ($3,300) Reddicks was targeted five times vs. UNLV a week ago, but has essentially lost his starting job with Darrius Clemons back in the lineup. Went from 64% snaps play in the first four weeks to just 42% over the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Darrius Clemons ($3,800) Reddicks will still split some time with Clemons, but the former Michigan transfer has the upper hand both in playing time and targets, now with 10 catches on 15 targets in the last two games. RB Salahadin Allah ($3,500) would be a high-risk play considering he has just seven attempts in the last three games, but an article came out this week that Oregon State plans on giving the freshman more playing time to relieve Hankerson a bit of his workload. All 18 of TE Jermaine Terry’s ($3,200) targets in 2024 have come in the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Gevani McCoy ($5,200) As we mentioned above, passing volume is up for McCoy the last three weeks who has multiple 30-point fantasy performances in the last three games. Cal is better defending the pass vs. the run, allowing just 15.2 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Best of the Rest – WR Trent Walker ($4,600) Walker has been one of the most consistent receivers in college fantasy, in particular in full-point PPR formats…aka DraftKings. Double-digit fantasy points in five of seven games this season. The Oregon State offense is starting to diversify a bit more now too, throwing the ball 28, 42 and 37 times in the last three games.
Injury Notes – RB Jam Griffin is out for the foreseeable future, and not sure he will return in the regular season.
California:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Endries ($4,000) With Corey Dyches on the shelf, Endries has 17 receptions on 20 targets in the last two games and consecutive 100-yard receiving performances. Cal coverage is tough to find, so we may not even know pregame if Dyches is out or not for a third-straight game, but this is not a steep price to pay regardless of the injury situation.
Fade – QB Fernando Mendoza ($5,800) Oregon State is better defensively vs. the pass than the run this season, ranked 57th in pass D success rate and 51st in EPA per pass play. I prefer not to risk starting a QB on a main slate that has failed to score 13 fantasy points in four of six games this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jonathan Brady ($3,400) Usage is strong the last two weeks for the New Mexico State transfer with 10 receptions on 14 targets, playing 70% of the offensive snaps. Seems like Brady is settling in with his new team.
Pivot Play – RBs. Someone could come up big here with very low ownership, whether it be a healthy Jaydn Ott or Javian Thomas. HC Justin Wilcox did not confirm Ott will play Saturday, but definitely hinted that he’ll be good to go as he’s practiced this week. Thomas has been a capable replacement, rushing for 70+ yards in each of the last two games with three touchdowns. The Beavers are dead last in the country in rush D success rate and EPA per run play, so whoever gets the bulk of the carries here will find running room.
Best of the Rest – WRs Cal’s WR1 is their tight end so we’re not heavily interested in any receivers for the Bears. Nyziah Hunter leads all wideouts in targets and receptions with 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Trond Grizzell has been targeted at least four times in each of the last five games.
Injury Notes – A lot to dissect here. Jaydn Ott and Tobias Merriweather returned to practice this week. The workload is unknown. RB Kadarius Calloway, who did not play vs. NC State, is available. Corey Dyches is questionable, and WRs Mason Starling and Kyion Grayes are doubtful.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Tex -17.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Tex 35.5 – Vandy 18
Weather: 69 degrees / 8% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($4,800) Wisner did show up on the Wednesday injury report but is listed as probable so he should be a go for Saturday. Wisner has fully taken over the RB1 role in the Texas offense with Jaydon Blue relegated to third-down, pass-catching duties. The evidence? 15 rushing attempts for Wisner vs. Georgia. Zero rushing attempts for Blue.
Fade – RB Jaydon Blue ($5,800) See above. And while Blue is a good pass-catching back, he won’t be getting nine targets like he did a week ago vs. UGA as a 18.5-point favorite this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,300) Fourth on the team in targets with an insane 94% catch rate while playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps and leads all Longhorns in routes run. Five tight ends have scored at least 8 fantasy points against Vanderbilt this season, including 21 fantasy points from Ball State’s Tanner Koziol last week.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) Vanderbilt does nothing particularly well defensively, especially defending the pass where the Commodores are 89th in EPA per pass play and 106th in success rate. So, a 22-point projection at this price, against this defense, makes some sense. With Ewers, though, there’s several ways this could go poorly. Is he injured? Does Ewers throw an interception for the fourth time in five games? Does Arch see the field at all. Ewers will have low ownership facing a bad pass defense, but it comes with major risk.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The good news is that we’re essentially able to eliminate two players from the equation as Silas Bolden and Johntay Cook have not made the impact they were expected to in the preseason. Neither player saw the field vs. Georgia. And if Bond is limited, then we’re just looking at Matthew Golden, Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. as potential options.
Injury Notes – As of Thursday morning writing this, Isaiah Bond is the player to watch for in Saturday warmups.
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($7,200) The only way Pavia is reaching value is if he’s running the ball 20+ times on Saturday…OR Texas is deflated still from last weekend and lets the Georgia loss beat them twice. The Longhorns are still No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate, and Vandy could be without their best pass-catching option, for a team that doesn’t throw the ball all that effectively anyways.
Injury Notes – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,400) left the game vs. Ball State in the 4th quarter into the injury tent and did not return. TE Eli Stowers ($4,700), the team’s leading receiver, is also questionable as of Thursday with an undisclosed injury (possible knee). If neither player is 100% or does not play, the only Vanderbilt option of interest is Pavia.
