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LSU vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -0.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: A&M 23 – LSU 22.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 3% rain / 5 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – RB Caden Durham ($5,900) We’ve been tricked before by Brian Kelly, but hopefully last week was the turning point in fully handing over the backfield to freshman Caden Durham who rushed for 101 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Arkansas. And that is at 80-85% health too, according to Brian Kelly as there’s still some lingering effects from the foot injury. FWIW – there is no “lock” play on the LSU side as A&M is well-rounded defensively against both the run and pass. Three running backs have scored at least 16 fantasy points vs. the Aggies this season, but none have hit 20 fantasy points.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($3,800) When Kaleb Jackson is out-rushing you, that is a problem. Brian Kelly’s glowing comments this week about Durham lead us to believe that this backfield has been turned over.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,800) Too cheap for a player that is second on the team in targets, tied for first in receptions and quite literally does not come off the field. There is not a game this season in which Taylor has played fewer than 98% of the team’s offensive snaps. A&M could not defend Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin earlier in the year, allowing 28 fantasy points in that matchup.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($7,700) CJ Daniels is officially questionable for tonight. The last time Daniels did not play was against Ole Miss in Week 7. Lacy had a season-high 13 targets with over 100 yards receiving in that game. Just sayin. WR Aaron Anderson ($5,100) failed to surpass 60 yards in a game for the first time all year last weekend.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,800) Projection doesn’t meet the pricing this week for Nuss facing this tough A&M secondary. Just one QB all season has scored more than 13 fantasy points against the Aggies. The advanced metrics don’t love the A&M pass defense as much, ranking 76th in EPA and 40th in success rate.
Injury Notes – WR CJ Daniels ($4,000) Questionable for Saturday coming off a 10-target performance vs. Arkansas. WR Chris Hilton ($3,800) is looking like he’ll make his debut on Saturday for the first time this season, but that’s a “see it to believe it” type deal as he’s been probable for seemingly a month now.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,500) Moss might have the highest ownership on the slate for a player not named Cam Ward. Five rushing touchdowns in the last two games. I wouldn’t call Moss a must-have, though, as LSU’s ability to defend the run is their perceived strength on that side of the ball. The Tigers allow just 21 fantasy points combined to opposing backfields this season and are 33rd in rush D success rate. Good, not great play, but can’t beat that price.
Fade – WR Moose Muhammad III ($3,100) Once thought to be a starter back in September, Muhammad is essentially out of the equation at this point with just five receptions in five games. Muhammad played just one snap vs. Mississippi State in Week 8.
Bargain Bin – RB Amari Daniels ($3,800) I don’t know about you all, but every time I promote Moss and fade Daniels, the latter always has a big game. Look back to the Missouri matchup where Daniels had multiple first half touchdowns. Nine or more rushing attempts in each of the last six games.
Pivot Play – QB Conner Weigman ($5,800) LSU is only allowing 16.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks for the year, but the advanced metrics don’t like this LSU pass defense. The Tigers are 112th in pass D success rate and 98th in EPA per pass play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This is a low volume passing game that doesn’t have an alpha at wideout so realistically it is best to fade this group when the Aggies are throwing the ball just 38% of the time which is 123rd in the country. WR Noah Thomas ($3,700) leads all Aggie receivers in yards, targets and receptions. WR Cyrus Allen ($4,000) and WR Jabre Barber ($3,500) were second and third, respectively, in snaps played in Week 8.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: UM -5.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: UM 22.5 – MSU 17
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($6,800) With last week’s loss to Illinois, Michigan was eliminated from the CFP conversation and media coverage for the Wolverines has effectively shifted to recruiting and Michigan basketball – even in a rivalry week such as this. With that said, Mullings continues to be one of the few bright spots, rushing for 90 or more yards in four of the last five games.
Fade – QB(s). The Tuttle Shuttle has crashed off the side of the road at this point. Never thought I’d say this – Michigan is dead last in the B1G in passing yards per game through nine weeks. Yes, Iowa is even throwing for more yards than the Wolverines. Sherrone Moore is already on the hot seat for his butchering of the QB position this offseason.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($4,400) Unless the QB is Alex Orji on Saturday night, Loveland is absolutely in the conversation at this pricing, as he’s been targeted 11 times in each of the last two games, accounting for over 40% of the team’s target share in that span.
Pivot Play – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,500) or WR Tyler Morris ($3,400) Michigan should never head into a season with their three starting wide receivers being a pair of 3-star recruits and a transfer from Youngstown State. Just completely unacceptable from this coaching staff. We really shouldn’t consider either Morgan or Morris this week but wanted to point out that five receivers have scored 22 fantasy points this season against Michigan State, so the Spartans will allow yardage through the air. MSU is 94th in pass D success rate. The hope is that Davis Warren back under center breathes some life into the passing game to where Morgan or Morris could be relevant.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,100) Edwards will continue to share the workload with Mullings in the first half, and that’s usually when the staff decides to ride one or the other depending on who’s on a heater that day. 10-12 touches are expected Saturday night for Edwards as Michigan simply must lean more into the run game because that’s the one strength on that side of the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Velling ($3,100) Michigan’s linebackers are thumpers but cannot defend the middle of the field when teams drop back to pass. Tight ends have shredded this Michigan back seven this year, averaging 12.3 FPPG and scoring 34% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Wolverines. 10 receptions on 12 targets in the last two games for Velling.
Fade – RB Nate Carter ($4,800) Carter has been out-carried by RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams ($5,200) in three of the last four games. Still a 60-40 split in the backfield, but the UMass transfer has been the more effective of the two rushers in the last month. The Wolverines are still near the top of the conference when it comes to defending the run, ranked 13th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Marsh ($3,500) We were spot on last week with promoting Marsh as an option against an Iowa defense that gives up plenty of points to opposing receivers, as the freshman went for 100+ yards on eight receptions. Michigan is solid in the secondary, but not the dominant group that folks thought they could be in the preseason…AND Will Johnson may not even play either.
Pivot Play – WR Montorie Foster ($3,700) Foster rotates between the boundary and the slot, but would not be surprised to see the WR1 line up inside this week as Michigan has struggled defending slot receivers, for similar reasons to why we mentioned above with tight ends. Four of the five highest scoring receivers to face the Wolverines this season all played inside.
Best of the Rest – QB Aidan Chiles ($5,100) Cheap enough to consider at this salary, but the Wolverines still are doing a good job at limiting fantasy points scored by opposing QBs. Just one quarterback – Quinn Ewers – scored more than 19 fantasy points vs. Michigan this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: PSU -6.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: PSU 27.5 – UW 21
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.