LSU vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -0.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: A&M 23 – LSU 22.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 3% rain / 5 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – RB Caden Durham ($5,900) We’ve been tricked before by Brian Kelly, but hopefully last week was the turning point in fully handing over the backfield to freshman Caden Durham who rushed for 101 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Arkansas. And that is at 80-85% health too, according to Brian Kelly as there’s still some lingering effects from the foot injury. FWIW – there is no “lock” play on the LSU side as A&M is well-rounded defensively against both the run and pass. Three running backs have scored at least 16 fantasy points vs. the Aggies this season, but none have hit 20 fantasy points.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($3,800) When Kaleb Jackson is out-rushing you, that is a problem. Brian Kelly’s glowing comments this week about Durham lead us to believe that this backfield has been turned over.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,800) Too cheap for a player that is second on the team in targets, tied for first in receptions and quite literally does not come off the field. There is not a game this season in which Taylor has played fewer than 98% of the team’s offensive snaps. A&M could not defend Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin earlier in the year, allowing 28 fantasy points in that matchup.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($7,700) CJ Daniels is officially questionable for tonight. The last time Daniels did not play was against Ole Miss in Week 7. Lacy had a season-high 13 targets with over 100 yards receiving in that game. Just sayin. WR Aaron Anderson ($5,100) failed to surpass 60 yards in a game for the first time all year last weekend.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,800) Projection doesn’t meet the pricing this week for Nuss facing this tough A&M secondary. Just one QB all season has scored more than 13 fantasy points against the Aggies. The advanced metrics don’t love the A&M pass defense as much, ranking 76th in EPA and 40th in success rate.
Injury Notes – WR CJ Daniels ($4,000) Questionable for Saturday coming off a 10-target performance vs. Arkansas. WR Chris Hilton ($3,800) is looking like he’ll make his debut on Saturday for the first time this season, but that’s a “see it to believe it” type deal as he’s been probable for seemingly a month now.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,500) Moss might have the highest ownership on the slate for a player not named Cam Ward. Five rushing touchdowns in the last two games. I wouldn’t call Moss a must-have, though, as LSU’s ability to defend the run is their perceived strength on that side of the ball. The Tigers allow just 21 fantasy points combined to opposing backfields this season and are 33rd in rush D success rate. Good, not great play, but can’t beat that price.
Fade – WR Moose Muhammad III ($3,100) Once thought to be a starter back in September, Muhammad is essentially out of the equation at this point with just five receptions in five games. Muhammad played just one snap vs. Mississippi State in Week 8.
Bargain Bin – RB Amari Daniels ($3,800) I don’t know about you all, but every time I promote Moss and fade Daniels, the latter always has a big game. Look back to the Missouri matchup where Daniels had multiple first half touchdowns. Nine or more rushing attempts in each of the last six games.
Pivot Play – QB Conner Weigman ($5,800) LSU is only allowing 16.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks for the year, but the advanced metrics don’t like this LSU pass defense. The Tigers are 112th in pass D success rate and 98th in EPA per pass play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This is a low volume passing game that doesn’t have an alpha at wideout so realistically it is best to fade this group when the Aggies are throwing the ball just 38% of the time which is 123rd in the country. WR Noah Thomas ($3,700) leads all Aggie receivers in yards, targets and receptions. WR Cyrus Allen ($4,000) and WR Jabre Barber ($3,500) were second and third, respectively, in snaps played in Week 8.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: UM -5.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: UM 22.5 – MSU 17
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($6,800) With last week’s loss to Illinois, Michigan was eliminated from the CFP conversation and media coverage for the Wolverines has effectively shifted to recruiting and Michigan basketball – even in a rivalry week such as this. With that said, Mullings continues to be one of the few bright spots, rushing for 90 or more yards in four of the last five games.
Fade – QB(s). The Tuttle Shuttle has crashed off the side of the road at this point. Never thought I’d say this – Michigan is dead last in the B1G in passing yards per game through nine weeks. Yes, Iowa is even throwing for more yards than the Wolverines. Sherrone Moore is already on the hot seat for his butchering of the QB position this offseason.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($4,400) Unless the QB is Alex Orji on Saturday night, Loveland is absolutely in the conversation at this pricing, as he’s been targeted 11 times in each of the last two games, accounting for over 40% of the team’s target share in that span.
Pivot Play – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,500) or WR Tyler Morris ($3,400) Michigan should never head into a season with their three starting wide receivers being a pair of 3-star recruits and a transfer from Youngstown State. Just completely unacceptable from this coaching staff. We really shouldn’t consider either Morgan or Morris this week but wanted to point out that five receivers have scored 22 fantasy points this season against Michigan State, so the Spartans will allow yardage through the air. MSU is 94th in pass D success rate. The hope is that Davis Warren back under center breathes some life into the passing game to where Morgan or Morris could be relevant.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,100) Edwards will continue to share the workload with Mullings in the first half, and that’s usually when the staff decides to ride one or the other depending on who’s on a heater that day. 10-12 touches are expected Saturday night for Edwards as Michigan simply must lean more into the run game because that’s the one strength on that side of the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Velling ($3,100) Michigan’s linebackers are thumpers but cannot defend the middle of the field when teams drop back to pass. Tight ends have shredded this Michigan back seven this year, averaging 12.3 FPPG and scoring 34% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Wolverines. 10 receptions on 12 targets in the last two games for Velling.
Fade – RB Nate Carter ($4,800) Carter has been out-carried by RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams ($5,200) in three of the last four games. Still a 60-40 split in the backfield, but the UMass transfer has been the more effective of the two rushers in the last month. The Wolverines are still near the top of the conference when it comes to defending the run, ranked 13th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Marsh ($3,500) We were spot on last week with promoting Marsh as an option against an Iowa defense that gives up plenty of points to opposing receivers, as the freshman went for 100+ yards on eight receptions. Michigan is solid in the secondary, but not the dominant group that folks thought they could be in the preseason…AND Will Johnson may not even play either.
Pivot Play – WR Montorie Foster ($3,700) Foster rotates between the boundary and the slot, but would not be surprised to see the WR1 line up inside this week as Michigan has struggled defending slot receivers, for similar reasons to why we mentioned above with tight ends. Four of the five highest scoring receivers to face the Wolverines this season all played inside.
Best of the Rest – QB Aidan Chiles ($5,100) Cheap enough to consider at this salary, but the Wolverines still are doing a good job at limiting fantasy points scored by opposing QBs. Just one quarterback – Quinn Ewers – scored more than 19 fantasy points vs. Michigan this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: PSU -6.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: PSU 27.5 – UW 21
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – TE Tyler Warren ($6,700) We’ve officially entered Brock Bowers territory for Warren after his 250-yard performance two weeks ago vs. USC. Rarified air that a tight end hits the 30% target share threshold for a team, but Warren has almost double the amount of targets as the next closest Penn State pass-catcher. Add in that Penn State has used Warren as a wildcat QB at times this year too, and there’s multiple avenues to which Warren can hit value.
Fade – WR Omari Evans ($3,700) Evans is better than Julian Fleming, but the snap counts indicate the coaching staff has more trust in the Ohio State transfer. Evans played just 22% of the contest vs. USC.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,000) Wallace is second on the team in targets (28), receptions (17) and receiving yards. You have to think Wisconsin’s defense will shade coverages towards Warren which could open up opportunities for some of the other playmakers. Just two receivers have scored more than 17 fantasy points vs. Wisconsin this season.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($7,400) Legitimate fantasy QB options are few and far to come by on this slate, so Allar and his 22-point projection must be in play. Don’t love the matchup, though, where Wisconsin is allowing just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, and the Badgers are 9th nationally in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RBs. The Wisconsin defense has put the clamps down on opposing running backs since the opening week where Western Michigan’s Jalen Buckley scored 22 fantasy points. No running back facing the Badgers has scored more than 15 fantasy points since. In total, Wisconsin is allowing just 16 fantasy points combined to opposing backfields in 2024. No consideration to stacking the Penn State backfield in this scenario – you have to choose between Kaytron Allen or Nick Singleton.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Tawee Walker ($6,100) Penn State has not been as dominant defending the run in 2024 as they’ve been in year’s past, ranked 50th in success rate and allowing 22 FPPG to opposing backfields. Walker has been one of the best fantasy backs in the country since Chez Mellusi quit on the season, with eight rushing touchdowns in the last four games and over 300 rushing yards in the previous two weeks. 20+ carries incoming for Walker.
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($4,800) In fairness to Locke, he’s played better since that disastrous performance on the road against USC a few weeks back, but this isn’t the matchup to consider him. Penn State is allowing just 9.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and have yet to allow a QB to score more than 17 fantasy points all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony II ($3,200) Just 13 receptions for Anthony this season, but he’s Wisconsin’s top big-play threat, averaging over 24 yards per reception and four targets in each of the last four games. Leads all Badger receivers in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($4,000) Pauling has looked like his old self the last two weeks since returning from injury with nine receptions on 14 targets against Rutgers and Northwestern.
Best of the Rest – RB Darrion Dupree ($3,200) Wisconsin dominated it’s last two opponents, so the freshman Dupree has gotten extended run the past two games with double-digit rushing attempts. If not for DFS purposes, a name to watch for as a potential Tawee Walker successor in 2025.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -2.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UK 23 – Aub 20.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($5,200) Nothing I love more than writing up a game preview between two mid SEC teams with below average offenses. KLS has been Auburn’s most consistent offensive performer, leading the Tigers by averaging 3.7 receptions on 5.7 targets per game with 6 of the team’s 17 receiving touchdowns.
Fade – QB Payton Thorne ($6,500) For as bad as the Kentucky offense is, the defense continues to play at a relatively high level, particularly against the pass where the Wildcats have yet to allow an opposing QB to score more than 20 fantasy points in a game all year. Every week that Auburn continues to lose there is the off chance that Thorne could get replaced in the starting lineup again, which would crush your DFS lineups so not even worth the risk at this point.
Bargain Bin – WR Cam Coleman ($3,500) The volume isn’t there for the 5-star freshman, now with just four targets in the last two weeks, but Coleman is a big-play waiting to happen if and when he catches the football. 25.9 yards per catch with a 20.3 aDOT, and we only need one big play to pay off this salary. Kentucky allowed 37 yards per reception last week vs. the Gators.
Pivot Play – RB Jarquez Hunter ($4,900) The dam broke last week for the Kentucky run D as they looked defeated at Florida, allowing 40+ fantasy points and five rushing touchdowns to a freshman running back making his first career start. Never know what you’re going to get from Hunter with how inconsistent the Auburn offense is, but he continues to see double-digit carries on a weekly basis.
Best of the Rest – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,300) or WR Robert Lewis ($3,400) Based strictly on playing time, there was separation in playing time last week vs. Missouri. Both Lewis and Fairweather played over 57% of the team’s snaps and combined for 11 targets. Next closest wideout – Malcolm Simmons – played just 23% of the game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Dane Key ($5,000) Far and away the team’s best offensive player this season, averaging 8.7 targets and 5.0 receptions per game with 39% of the team’s target share.
Fade – QB Brock Vandagriff ($4,700) If Kentucky decides to move on from Mark Stoops after this season, we all know the reason. The inability to find a competent quarterback for much of his tenure with the Wildcats will be his eventual downfall. Kentucky fans are already discussing trying to poach Jon Sumrall and QB Darian Mensah away from Tulane this offseason.
Bargain Bin – RB Jamarion Wilcox ($3,300) Wilcox will get the start on Saturday with Chip Trayanum and Demie Sumo both on the shelf with injuries. The Auburn run defense is very average, allowing 25 FPPG to opposing backfields and 58th in rush D success rate. The Wildcats will also mix in freshman Jason Patterson who got some hype this offseason but expect 10+ touches for Wilcox on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Barion Brown ($4,000) Brown is second on the team in receptions (22), targets (30) and receiving yards, while third in routes run and leads the Wildcats with three receiving touchdowns. With Kentucky down two running backs, perhaps we see Brown in the backfield more on Saturday as he does have 10 rushing attempts.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Haven’t watched a Kentucky game since about Week 2. This offense is a bore and not relevant to anyone that plays college fantasy football.
Injury Notes – RBs Demie Sumo and Chip Trayanum are OUT.
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -9.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KSU 32.5 – KU 23
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,500) Under normal circumstances we’d likely limit our exposure to Neal this week against a borderline elite Kansas State run defense that is 6th in success rate, 11th in EPA per run play and gives up just 20 FPPG to opposing backfields. But…check out the injury note below. Hishaw potentially being unavailable Saturday changes Neal’s outlook because Kansas doesn’t really give anyone carries beyond those two.
Fade – WR Trevor Wilson ($3,200) Kansas does not rotate much at all at receiver with Grimm, Arnold and Skinner all playing over 70% of the offensive snaps for the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Quentin Skinner ($3,400) Three touchdowns in Skinner’s last two games as Kansas has started to find its footing with the passing game. In Week’s 1-5, the Jayhawks were averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt. That number has jumped to 10.1 over the last two weeks, which benefits Skinner.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($6,000) Starting to warm up to the idea of Jalon Daniels being in the SuperFlex as my second QB option alongside Cam Ward. If there’s a weakness to the K-State defense, it is in the secondary where the Wildcats are 66th in EPA per pass play defensively and 59th in success rate. In fact, four of the last six opponents facing K-State have thrown for at least 250 yards.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Grimm ($6,000) or WR Lawrence Arnold ($4,300) Gimm leads the team, averaging 7.0 targets per game and a team-high four receiving touchdowns. Arnold is third in all receiving categories. The KU receivers should challenge this K-State secondary that allows on average 48 FPPG to opposing WR corps. Five wideouts have scored at least 19 fantasy points against the Wildcats this season, so I’m looking to have at least one KU receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($3,800) Sounds like this will be a game-time decision that we will not know until two hours before kickoff. Hishaw is officially questionable.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($7,400) Kansas actually hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points this season to opposing running backs, but the analytical numbers don’t paint a pretty picture for the Jayhawks run D. Kansas is 116th in rush D success rate and 124th in EPA per run play. Bad sign facing the No. 2 rushing offense in the Big 12 and a running back in DJ Giddens who is 9th nationally in yards per game on the ground.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($3,100) Remember when Cephas was a viable fantasy option back at Kent State a few years back? Yea, he should’ve stayed there. Just four receptions in seven games played, with his playing time diminishing.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($3,000) 153 of Jackson’s 167 receiving yards have come in the last three games alone. Jackson has played 54% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last four weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Avery Johnson ($7,500) Johnson projects very well this week as his stock is rising with his performances of late, averaging 260 YPG through the air with eight touchdowns and just two INTs in his last three games. KU is allowing around 22 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayce Brown ($4,500) Team leader in targets (39), receptions (25) and receiving touchdowns (3), with nearly 30% of Kansas State’s receiving yards. WR Keagan Johnson ($3,500) is second on the team in targets (20), playing 68% of the team’s offensive snaps which is first among Kansas State wideouts. RB Dylan Edwards ($3,800) is always an option with his usage both in the run and pass game, tied for third on the team in targets (19) and third in rushing attempts.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. Duke
Point-Spread: SMU -12
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: SMU 30 – Duke 18
Weather: 65 degrees / 6% rain / 6 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,500) Jennings is really settling in as QB1 for SMU, with 28 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. Two of which have been dead bodies in Florida State and Stanford, but this SMU offense has been clicking the last three weeks. The lone hesitancy is that Duke’s pass defense is legit on paper, ranking 7th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.3 FPPG to opposing QBs. The counterargument is that Duke hasn’t faced anyone of significance to rack up those strong defensive numbers.
Fade – RB Brashard Smith ($7,600) College fantasy at its finest last week with Smith being suspended for the first half vs. Stanford, unannounced, due to not showing up to class per HC Rhett Lashlee. Doesn’t sound like a long-term deal and we’re expecting him to start in an important ACC matchup. Duke ranks 31st in rush D success rate but are allowing RBs to score around 15% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Blue Devils. The issue is that since RB LJ Johnson’s (4,000) from injury, SMU looks to be back to a committee approach. The former A&M transfer has three touchdowns in the last two games now, with RB Roderick Daniels ($3,100) also in the mix with 16 attempts in the previous two games and is designated as a WR on DraftKings. Don’t think the price makes sense here for Smith if SMU is back to a split backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,000) Longshot here, but I really liked Hibner back at Michigan where he transferred from this offseason. Targeted just once last week vs. Stanford, but Hibner played 70% of the team’s snaps and will take on a much larger role moving this week now that RJ Maryland has been shut down for the year due to injury.
Pivot Play – WR Key’Shawn Smith ($3,400) The former Miami transfer seems to be surging a bit as the team’s WR1 with eight receptions on 10 targets in the last two games with a pair of touchdowns. Smith is the only SMU wideout to play over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – Remaining WRs. It’s likely that the wide receivers get more attention with leading pass-catcher RJ Maryland now done for the year. Jordan Hudson, Moochie Dixon and Jake Bailey join Key’Shawn Smith in the starting lineup. A bit of separation in terms of playing time where Dixon has played over 60% of the snaps in the last two weeks, including an 87-yard touchdown vs. Stanford, albeit his only target / reception on the day.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Star Thomas ($5,800) Strictly a volume play because Thomas continues to get fed carries, averaging 20.1 attempts per contest over the last six games. Sounds like Jaquez Moore is nearing a return, but Thomas has proven to be the best option in the Duke backfield. Just one running back has scored more than 14 fantasy points vs. SMU this season, and the Mustangs are ranked 10th in rush D success rate, so Thomas is far from a must-have in your lineups.
Fade – QB Maalik Murphy ($6,800) Doesn’t sound like Duke will be making a QB change, but maybe they should? 50% completion percentage in ACC play with just three total touchdowns, coming to a head last week with only 70 yards passing in a win over Florida State. Makes far more sense to save a few hundred bucks and roster the QB on the other side of the field.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Taylor ($3,200) Duke lost its top two tight ends to season-ending injury, so appears the 6-foot-5 sophomore Jake Taylor will be thrust into a starting role. Taylor was targeted just once vs. Florida State but played 85% of snaps. SMU is allowing around 10 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Eli Pancol ($4,700) Pancol leads the team with five touchdown receptions, with six or more targets in four of the last five games. Pancol is on the field more than any other Duke receiver the last three weeks at 86%. Sahmir Hagans and Javon Harvey have seen their play time increase as well with Jordan Moore being a relative non-factor.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($6,200) Don’t think Moore is playable at this point as he’s been a non-factor over the last month or so after suffering an injury in Week 4 vs. Connecticut. Against Florida State, Moore didn’t come on until the fourth series of the game. The injury has clearly hampered him – Moore had 23 catches in the first three games and just eight receptions in the last four. Moore has slate-winning upside but a huge risk after his performances the last month.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -20.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Mia 37.5 – FSU 17
Weather: 55 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Florida State:
A few years back at the start of the Mario Cristobal tenure, Florida State ran up the score on Miami 45-3 back in November of 2022. Sounds like the Miami coaching staff has not forgotten about that happening and will look to exact revenge against a defeated Florida State team in front of several high-profile recruits in the state. If, for some reason, your dead set on having a Florida State player in your lineups, RB Lawrance Toafili ($4,500) should get the bulk of the carries with Kam Davis suffering a 4th quarter injury last week vs. Duke.
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($10,500) Same scenario as those that played the Friday slate debating if it was worth it to play Ashton Jeanty or not. Ward is, by far, the best QB on the slate and should have 90% ownership. Eat the chalk.
Fade – RB Jordan Lyle ($3,400) No injury tag, but the true freshman has not played since Week 6, giving third string snaps away to veteran Ajay Allen.
Bargain Bin – RB Mark Fletcher ($4,400) This is effectively a 1A / 1B situation between Fletcher and Damien Martinez, and one could make the argument that Fletcher might be the “A” between the two. Double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last two games, averaging over six yards per carry, and if we believe that this game is a blowout…Fletcher will hit that mark again. FSU is 60th in EPA per run defensively and allow 172 YPG on the ground which ranks 102nd nationally.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Horton ($5,700) Horton was a popular play last week both in DFS and the prop market but failed to hit the mark with just 17 receiving yards. Horton did still find the end-zone vs. Louisville and the usage rates still suggest he’s WR2 behind Xavier Restrepo, being targeted seven times with the second most routes run. We still have Horton projected ahead of Jacolby George and Sam Brown, though all three are obviously candidates to be rostered.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,600) Restrepo is starting to find his groove, now with back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances. The senior slot man is now averaging 5.6 receptions on 7.4 targets per game. TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,400) was held out of the stat column vs. Louisville but has four touchdowns in his last six contests.
Injury Notes – n/a
