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Memphis vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: Mem -7.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mem 34 – UTSA 26.5
Weather: Dome
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($7,800) When he’s not spitting at defenders, Anderson is one of the best fantasy running backs in the country, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in five of eight games this season with 14 rushing touchdowns. His volume has increased significantly in the last two games with 54 rushing attempts as multiple backup RBs for Memphis have suffered season-ending injuries. Anderson is arguably the best play of the slate.
Fade – WR Jyaire Shorter ($3,300) At one point a few years ago, Shorter was considered one of the top potential fantasy wideouts during his days at North Texas. Now, Shorter averages 2.0 targets per game and around 20% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – RB Makari Bodiford ($3,000) The freshman running back has moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers suffering season-ending injuries. Bodiford rushed for 73 yards and a TD last week vs. Charlotte in a five-point win…aka meaningful snaps even as a backup.
Pivot Play – QB Seth Henigan ($7,600) I thought we’d see a better statistical season from Henigan from a fantasy standpoint given the majority of the Tigers’ offense returned from last season, particularly his top two receivers. Saturday will be a good opportunity for an offensive breakout, facing a UTSA defense that allows 29 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and is 81st in EPA per pass play defensively. Four QBs have scored at least 28 fantasy points this season when facing this UTSA defense, and that includes Cooper Legas who made his first start of the year and ECU’s Jake Garcia who was recently benched.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As expected, Roc Taylor again leads the team in targets (60), receptions (29) and receiving yards. DeMeer Blankumsee was a colossal bust early on in the year but is having a resurgence of late with touchdowns in three straight games. Koby Drake is third on the team in targets and receptions, but second in routes run, on the field as consistently as the top two wideouts. Collectively, UTSA is giving up 46 FPPG to wide receivers, so having at least one (and maybe two) Memphis wideouts in your lineups will be profitable.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) Thomas did not play vs. Charlotte last week. He’s a touchdown vulture in the red-zone that could impact both Mario Anderson and Makari Bodiford.
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Owen McCown ($6,100) McCown is arguably one of the stronger QB options on the slate, having eclipsed 23 fantasy points four times this season, including last week with 434 yards and four touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to Tulsa. Because of UTSA’s struggles to run the football, the passing volume has spiked with 40 or more attempts in each of the last four games. Memphis is allowing 22 FPPG to opposing QBs this season so we like both the floor and ceiling here for McCown.
Fade – RB Kevorian Barnes ($3,800) Remember when Barnes looked like a potential top 10 fantasy running back two years ago and the heir apparent to Sincere McCormick. Those days are long gone unfortunately as Barnes is averaging just 3.08 yards per carry this season and has been losing reps to younger options like Brandon High and Bryson Donnell.
Bargain Bin – RB Robert Henry ($4,000) Double-digit rushing attempts for Henry in each of the last four games, including a season-high 20 carries vs. Tulsa last week. Rocko Griffin is in the portal, and Kevorian Barnes will likely follow him after the season, so we’re not dealing with the full-fledged RBBC that we have in year’s past with the Roadrunners. Memphis ranks just 70th in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – TE Houston Thomas ($3,200) Thomas has emerged as the TE1 over Oscar Cardenas, now fourth on the team in targets (38) and third in receptions (20). Thomas is exactly what we look for in a fantasy tight end, playing just 42% of his snaps in-line and 51% in the slot.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This situation will be one to monitor as we’ll be in search of Devin McCuin injury updates on Saturday morning. UTSA primarily deployed two-tight end sets vs. Tulsa last week, so our focus will be on Willie McCoy and Chris Carpenter primarily among UTSA wideouts. The duo combined for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns on 20 targets last weekend.
Injury Notes – WR Devin McCuin ($5,000) McCuin did not play vs. Tulsa last week, and you won’t find much injury reporting for UTSA prior to gameday.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Miss -7.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Miss 30.5 – Ark 23
Weather: 59 degrees / 58% rain / 11 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,300) Dart is playing well this season, despite not living up to his lofty preseason fantasy expectations with just 18 total touchdowns – 14 of which came in the month of September. Yardage numbers are good – averaging 336 YPG through the air – but tough to score fantasy points when you’re handing the ball off to a 300-pound defensive linemen once you get inside the five-yard line. I like Dart as a sneaky play this week as Arkansas has the offense to keep up with Ole Miss, and the Razorbacks are 99th in pass D success rate this season.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($6,700) Parrish has found the end-zone is six of the eight games played this season, but don’t like the downward trend he’s on, averaging fewer than four yards per carry in each of the last three games. Neither of those three opponents are good at stopping the run either. Go back and look at Parrish’s game logs over the last two seasons, and you’ll see a similar trend of his production declining. There are better RB options at a cheaper price on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,300) Prieskorn had his best game of the season vs. Oklahoma last Saturday with 71 yards and a touchdown on six targets. As is the case with several Ole Miss pass-catchers this week, their viability strengthens if Tre Harris does not play. Arkansas is allowing 10.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,000) Wells seemingly lost his starting spot in Week 7 vs. LSU but he’s needed in the Ole Miss WR room if Tre Harris is out. The Rebels did not rotate AT ALL at receiver vs. Oklahoma last week with Wells, Cayden Lee and Jordan Watkins being the only Ole Miss wideouts to touch a blade of grass on offensive possessions.
Best of the Rest – WR Cayden Lee ($3,900) or WR Jordan Watkins ($4,000) Would have both Watkins and Lee ahead of Wells in my list of preferred Ole Miss receivers, combining for over 100 yards on 10 targets last Saturday. Slot receivers have dominated this Arkansas secondary this year – Brennan Presley and Kevin Coleman combined for 60 fantasy points in their matchup with the Razorbacks. That’d favor Lee here.
Injury Notes – WR Tre Harris ($9,500) Harris was trending towards playing last week vs. Oklahoma…and then he didn’t. Officially questionable for this week again. On his Rebel Talk radio stint, HC Lane Kiffin obviously did not give up any details, saying about Harris, “I hope he plays.”
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,600) Last week was the first time all season that Armstrong was not targeted 10 times in a game. That’ll likely change this week with a game script likely dictating Arkansas needing to throw the ball more on Saturday. Just once has Armstrong failed to have more than 70 receiving yards in a game all year, and his 30.2% target share is among the highest in the nation.
Fade – WR Tyrone Broden ($3,400) You’d be hard pressed to find a receiver that is less efficient than Broden, who somehow still plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. On 38 targets, Broden has caught just 14 passes, totaling a 36% catch rate with five drops. Yikes.
Bargain Bin – RB Braylen Russell ($3,500) Future is bright at the running back position in the SEC as we’ve seen over the last several weeks (more on Jadan Baugh later). Russell had a career day vs. Mississippi State last week in place of the injured Ja’Quinden Jackson, rushing for 175 yards on just 16 attempts. The pricing here keeps Russell in play as an option, but this is a whole different animal with the Ole Miss rush defense that allows just 76 yards per game on the ground and 15.6 FPPG to opposing backfields. It should be noted that Ole Miss has fallen from No. 1 to No. 4 nationally in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – TE Luke Hasz ($3,300) Hasz has not met expectations this season as a sophomore with just 14 receptions in eight games thus far. As a freshman, Hasz had 16 catches in just five games played. Was last week a turning point, though, with 59 yards and two touchdowns in the win over MSU? Hasz has a real shot to stack two good weeks in a row, taking on an Ole Miss defense that allows 12.5 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Oklahoma’s Bauer Sharp scored a season-best 16 fantasy points last week vs. the Rebels.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) Green is trending up as a passer of late, completing 73% of his throws with six touchdowns and just two interceptions in the last three games. And his lower-body injury seems to have subsided, rushing for 79 yards vs. Mississippi State. If Arkansas is winning on Saturday, Green has to have a monster performance. WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,000) is second on the team in targets (38), second in receptions (27) and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,200) Will not play on Saturday. Going under on Jackson’s season-long rushing props looking profitable right now.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: OSU -4
O/U Total: 47
Implied Score: OSU 25.5 – PSU 21.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.