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Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: A&M -3
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: A&M 23.5 – SC 20.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 23% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($6,200) Regardless of who gets the nod at quarterback, expect a full dosage of the Aggie running game behind Moss who has scored 20 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. South Carolina hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points this season to running backs, but statistically the run defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, ranking 111th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Mike Elko has not named a starter for the week between Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman, though we do anticipate it being Reed. The ambiguity around the position combined with the low game total means we’ll just avoid the headache in having to potentially late swap a player and / or monitor the news intently. South Carolina is only allowing 12.5 FPPG this season to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – RB Amari Daniels ($3,200) Strange pricing for a player that averages around 10 touches per game, coming off a season-high 92 yards last week vs. LSU, with three straight double-digit fantasy performances. Not sure I’d stack Moss and Daniels in the same lineup together, but Daniels is a really strong pivot at this price point.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Thomas ($3,800) The A&M wide receiver room is unappealing to say the least and we expect a run-based approach on Saturday from the Aggies, especially if Reed gets the nod. Thomas leads A&M in all receiving categories with 40 targets, 343 receiving yards and three of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns. 18 of those targets came in Week’s 4-5 when Marcel Reed was the team’s QB1, I should add.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nine of the 15 passes last week by Texas A&M quarterbacks went to either Le’Veon Moss and Noah Thomas. Cyrus Allen plays a bunch, as does TE1 Tre Watson, so you could throw darts there, but our primary interest this week is with Moss, Daniels and Thomas only.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($4,500) It is inarguable that South Carolina is the least appealing P4 team for college fantasy purposes. Sanders has looked healthy the last two weeks coming back from injury with 31 carries combined vs. Oklahoma and Alabama, rushing for a touchdown in both contests. The pricing is reasonable, though A&M doesn’t give up many fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Fade – WR Jared Brown ($3,900) It was announced this week that Brown will play on Saturday for the first time since Week 6. The issue is that I think he’s since been replaced as a starter by freshman WR Mazeo Bennett ($4,000). And Bennett has already been more productive than his counterpart, ranked second on the team in targets and receptions.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Simon ($3,400) A&M has struggled to defend the tight end position this season. Florida’s Arlis Boardingham had his season-high in yards vs. the Aggies. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin scored 28 fantasy points, while LSU’s Mason Taylor also scored double-digit fantasy points. Simon is the team leader in targets and receptions.
Pivot Play – QB LaNorris Sellers ($5,100) Marginal improvements throwing the football for Sellers, completing nearly 70% of his throws the last three games and did not turn it over once vs. Oklahoma in Week 8. Sellers does get volume on the ground as well with double-digit carries in each of the last four games. Here’s one reason to potentially start Sellers this week – the last two quarterbacks the Aggies have faced have scored the most fantasy points against A&M all season long with Garrett Nussmeier and Michael Van Buren topping 20 fpts. Maybe some leaks in the A&M secondary.
Best of the Rest – WRs Gage Larvadain ($3,400) and WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,300) One max South Carolina pass-catcher in a lineup which should be a given. Larvadain and Jacobs get a mention here because they played the most vs. Oklahoma in Week 8 over 60% of the team’s snaps. Would anticipate South Carolina’s starting trio at receiver being Larvadain, Jacobs and Bennett.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -10
O/U Total: 62
Implied Score: Clem 36 – UL 26
Weather: 72 degrees / 84% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR JaCorey Brooks ($7,500) The former Alabama transfer continues to get it done on a weekly basis, now with 23 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. His usage should only increase with Caullin Lacy opting out of the season. Brooks is also not coming off the field, playing 96% of snaps in his last five games.
Fade – QB Tyler Shough ($7,500) Wouldn’t say Shough is an outright fade in GPPs but won’t have much exposure to say the least. Still to this point, just one quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Clemson this season, which came in the opener against Georgia.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,300) Thought the San Diego State transfer would have a bigger impact than he’s had to this point, but trending up the last four weeks with 14 of his 19 targets coming in that span. Clemson is allowing 11.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season. Throw TE Nate Kurisky ($3,000) into the mix as well, catching two touchdowns last week vs. Boston College.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,400) Clemson’s run defense has improved immensely over the last three weeks, holding Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia to under 90 yards rushing and a combined 2.0 yards per carry. Overall, the Tigers are still 85th in rush D success rate and 108th in EPA per run play. Will the real Clemson run D please stand up? Brown will be the best running back Clemson has faced in the last four weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($3,900) We know the drill right now with Bell. Like Brooks, he does not come off the field, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps for the season, but production doesn’t always come with that. Bell has run almost the same number of routes this season as Brooks, yet has half of the targets (32) of his counterpart. I’ve been an WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,500) detractor over the years, but he gets a stock boost with Caullin Lacy not in the picture. Converted on five of his six targets last week for 86 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Weekly Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.