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California vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: Cal -7
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: Cal 31 – WF 24
Weather: 61 degrees / 12% rain / 3 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Endries ($4,800) Endries has been one of the best fantasy tight ends in the country for the last month with multiple 100-yard performances and two touchdowns in a four-week span. 26 of his 34 targets have come in that four-game stretch, due in large part to Corey Dyches not being in the lineup. This is a dream matchup against a Wake Forest defense that is allowing 15 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Four tight ends have scored at least 17 fantasy points against Wake this season – by far the most in the country.
Fade – RB Jaivian Thomas ($5,800) Until we see or hear otherwise, we’re expecting Jaydn Ott to play on Friday, just as he did in Week 9 against Oregon State. And with the bye week to recover from any lingering injury he might have had, we’re expecting Ott to be closer or at 100%.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($3,300) Steady uptick in production from Grizzell this season who has not been the team’s WR1 like some expected. Played a season-high 66% of snaps against Oregon State, finishing with 95 yards on six targets. We won’t do a deep dive on Cal receivers because it’s not a productive exercise, as the team’s leading wideout accounts for just 13% of the total target share. Based solely on the most recent game, Grizzell, Nyziah Hunter and Mikey Matthews received the most playing time of any Cal receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,100) The ultimate pivot play because Ott is not a $7.1k player this season based on his production and limited availability in 2024. The matchup and a bye week to heal up could do wonders for Ott this week, though. If Wake does have one strength on defense, it would be stopping the run, allowing just 24.4 FPPG to opposing backfields and 59th in EPA per run play defensively.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($6,400) I’m never a huge fan of rostering Mendoza because his fantasy production can be erratic at times, but you can’t ask for a better matchup as Wake Forest is dead last in the country in pass D success rate, allowing close to 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – Make sure you do your weekly checks just to make sure Jaydn Ott is a go. Never know with him this season.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($6,900) How could the dude that dislocated his kneecap in the first half, returned for the second half, and then proceeded to have a 60-yard TD run a few weeks back not be our top play for Wake Forest? Good, not great matchup for Claiborne this week as Cal No. 3 in the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground but have also allowed four ACC running backs to score 17 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,800) Kudos to Bachmeier for not being injured or getting benched yet as we head into Week 11. Cal’s pass defense is the strength on that side of the ball, ranked 49th in EPA per pass play, and have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points against them all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Horatio Fields ($3,800) or WR Micah Mays Jr. ($3,000) or WR Deuce Alexander ($3,200) Honestly, either of the three options work and are playable this week as Wake Forest exclusively uses just four receivers with Donavon Greene out injured. Fields had scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, though that streak was snapped against Stanford. Was still targeted seven times, as was Alexander, who has been targeted at least five times in all but one game this season. Mays is a distant four option among the WF wideouts, but 24 of his 25 targets this season have come just in the last four games. All three players listed above are cheap enough to consider.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($4,700) Second on the team in targets (51), first in receptions (39) and second in routes run. Four of the five highest scoring receivers against Cal this season have played in the slot. Morin plays inside 67% of the time.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Claiborne and the Wake Forest receivers are the options.
Injury Notes – Sounds like WR Donavon Greene ($4,900) could come back at some point this season, with Dave Clawson saying, “we hope we can get him back down the stretch.” Doesn’t sound like that’ll be this week.
Rice vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -9.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Mem 31 – Rice 21.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 39% rain / 10 mph winds
Rice:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 11 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.