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West Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -5.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Cin 31 – WVU 25.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 22% rain / 6 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahiem White ($4,600) This was not the breakout sophomore campaign that some folks projected from White as he has not broken free from the committee approach in the backfield with RB CJ Donaldson ($4,100). White gets the nod because of his explosive ability, able to turn two yards into 20 in the blink of an eye but won’t see more than 15 touches in a given week. Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to running backs this season, but the Bearcats are just 109th in rush D success rate. Having one of White or Donaldson in a lineup is the best play on the West Virginia side of things.
Fade – WR Preston Fox ($3,300) The one-time starter at the beginning of the season is completely out of the WR rotation, seeing single-digit snaps in each of the last two games played.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($3,500) Third on the team in targets (33), while second in receptions (25) and routes run. Cincinnati has not allowed a tight end to score more than 6 fantasy points all season, but tight end usage isn’t prevalent much in the Big 12. Taylor is on the field nearly 80% of the team’s total snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Nicco Marchiol ($6,800) Solid performance from Marchiol in the win over Arizona last week, completing 82% of his throws for 198 yards and two scores, while adding 41 yards on the ground on 13 attempts. Marchiol is on par with Garrett Greene as far as athleticism goes, as they would run the sophomore at times even when Greene was in the lineup. Five QBs have scored at least 20 fantasy points on Cincinnati this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Seems like we have a clear pecking order at receiver among the top three with Hudson Clement, Traylon Ray and Rodney Gallagher who are on the field over 60% of the time. Clement and Ray being the priorities of the three, with six of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns. Ray has come on a bit of late with three receiving touchdowns in the last four games played. Five receivers have scored at least 22 fantasy points against Cincinnati this season, four of which play on the boundary where Clement and Ray line up.
Injury Notes – QB Garrett Greene is unlikely to play on Saturday.
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,700) I actually think our projection currently is a touch low on Henderson who leads the team in every receiving category through eight games. Part of that is due to prior performance, catching just one pass on six targets vs. Colorado last week, but that’s what tends to happen when lined up across from Travis Hunter the entire game. Three receivers have scored 29 or more fantasy points this season against the Mountaineers, including 36 fantasy points from Tet McMillan in Week 9. Henderson is a high floor / high upside play this week.
Fade – Backups. Cincinnati’s top three wideouts are playing 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps currently and Corey Kiner accounts for 60% of backfield market share.
Bargain Bin – WR Tony Johnson ($3,600) Three touchdowns in the last four games for the FAU transfer who ranks third on the team in targets (40) and tied atop the Cincinnati leaderboard with four receiving TDs. 31 of Johnson’s 40 targets this season have come in the last four games alone.
Pivot Play – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,900) Sorsby’s fantasy production seemed to dip once he suffered the ankle injury that limited his running abilities. That said, this is the second worst pass defense in the Big 12 in West Virginia, allowing 261 YPG through the air and rank 120th in pass D success rate. On paper, this is a great matchup.
Best of the Rest – RB Corey Kiner ($5,900) Shocking that Kiner has just two rushing touchdowns this season despite dominating the backfield volume share as we alluded to above. Won’t kill your lineups, rushing for 70 or more yards in all but two games this season, but there’s a cap to his upside. WR Jamoi Mayes ($3,100) is WAY too cheap for a player that has been on the field for 90% of the team’s snaps in three of the last four games. He’s definitely an option at this price. TE Joe Royer ($4,000) is second on the team in receptions (36), targets (54) and touchdowns (3). Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points vs. the Mountaineers this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -2
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: BC 27.5 – Syra 25.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – WR Trebor Pena ($6,100) In times of dysfunction, which is where the Syracuse offense is at during this stage of the season, I’d lean on the players that have been most consist throughout the year. Pena has at least five receptions in all but one game this season, averaging 8.75 targets per game.
Fade – WR Umari Hatcher ($3,600) Seems like Umari Hatcher effectively lost his starting spot last week to WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($5,300) who caught two touchdowns in the win over Virginia Tech. Unless I missed an injury, Hatcher was targeted just once and ran four routes last Saturday.
Bargain Bin – n/a. No Syracuse player under $5k is playable.
Pivot Play – RB Lequint Allen ($8,100) Unsurprisingly after Kyle McCord’s disasterous performance against Pitt, Syracuse got back to the basics and handed the ball off to their best player in Allen, who rushed for 121 yards and three scores against Virginia Tech. Allen’s performance also came when the Orange were down 17-0 at halftime so the concerns of game script shouldn’t be a factor here. BC is 24th in rush D success rate, but also allowed 52 fantasy points just two weeks ago to Va Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten. BC allowed 25 points the week prior to that to Louisville’s Isaac Brown.
Best of the Rest – TE Oronde Gadsden (5,000) This should be a plus-matchup for Gadsden facing a BC defense that is giving up 10 FPPG to opposing tight ends on the year. Gadsden was a nonce factor against Virginia Tech last week, but still played his normal allotment of snaps. I think we’re seeing the real QB Kyle McCord ($9,000) now that defenses have tape on him and this Syracuse system. BC has yet to allow a QB to score more than 25 fantasy points against them this season but do rank 95th in pass D success rate so he’s not a complete fade. I’d avoid multiple Syracuse pass-catchers in the same lineup with how McCord has played of late.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,600) Castellanos will be the popular spend-down option at the quarterback position on the slate. We know his running abilities but should be able to throw on a Syracuse defense that is allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 107th in pass D success rate.
Fade – See injury notes.
Bargain Bin – TE Kamari Morales ($3,800) The North Carolina transfer has become a more integral part of the offense the last three weeks with 13 of his 18 total receptions coming in that span, with two touchdowns in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Kye Robichaux ($4,100) or RB Treshaun Ward ($4,700) Not the ideal matchup to stack both, but each were productive in the Week 9 loss to Louisville. Robichaux is listed atop the current depth chart and has had a pair of rushing touchdowns in the last two games. Ward gets a bump when Turbo Richard is out of the lineup, leading BC with 13 attempts vs. Louisville, along with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown. Both are options, especially if Richard is out of the lineup and this doesn’t become a three-way committee.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($5,100) or WR Reed Harris ($3,300) Bond is seeing consistent targets on a week-to-week basis, with seven or more in each of the last five games. Harris seems to have taken the starting spot in the lineup ahead of Jaedn Skeete, playing 90% of the offensive snaps in Week 9. That was a season high. The volume is low with just five catches on 15 total targets but is still averaging over 44 yards per catch with a 23.3 aDOT.
Injury Notes – RB Turbo Richard ($3,500) HC Bill O’Brien said on Monday that it will go right up until game time whether Richard plays or not. Easy avoid with that scenario.
Miami vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UM -11
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: UM 37.5 – GT 26.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 28% rain / 10 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 11 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.