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Alabama vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bama -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Bama 30.5 – LSU 28
Weather: 75 degrees / 32% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Germie Bernard ($4,000) This price doesn’t make sense for Bernard. When Alabama drops back to pass, the ball usually goes in one of two directions – either to Bernard or Ryan Williams who account for 49% of the team’s target share and nine of the 13 receiving touchdowns. Bernard has 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games.
Fade – RBs. LSU’s run defense is pretty average across the board, ranked 45th in success rate and 67th in EPA per run play. I’m not sure Alabama is the team to take advantage of that, as their 80th in run play success rate offensively and 47th in yards per game on the ground. Very “un-Alabama like.” Jam Miller and Justice Haynes split carries, making this situation even less desirable.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($3,200) Alabama has not had a WR3 emerge this season beyond Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, but Law is the receiver that plays the most alongside those two, seeing 62% of the team’s snaps last time out against Missouri.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Williams ($6,800) The last time Alabama was on the road in a ranked matchup, Williams was targeted 19 times at Tennessee. Do we see a concerted effort again to get the 5-star freshman involved early and often on Saturday night? Four receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points vs. LSU this season, two of which came in the same game with Ole Miss.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,000) The 24.7-point projection for Milroe at this pricing just doesn’t make it fiscally responsible to play him as one of our QB options. The LSU defense also hasn’t given up a ton of big-time performances this year to opposing QBs, with just one player – Marcel Reed – scoring more than 23 fantasy points against the Tigers.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,200) Revenge game of sorts for Anderson, the former Alabama transfer, who now has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. We prefer this pricing and Anderson’s consistency over the other LSU receiving options this week. Just three receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Alabama this season – two of which coming in the same game vs. Georgia when they were down five touchdowns – so having an LSU wideout in your lineups is not a necessity.
Fade – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,900) Hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, but the spend-down options are much more appealing on this slate than Nussmeier, facing an Alabama defense that is 10th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. I’d much rather pair a Nico Iamaleava and Josh Hoover together at QB and S-Flex if possible. If playing Nussmeier, it is paramount to stack at least two LSU pass-catchers together in the same lineup because that means LSU threw the ball 40-45 times.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,700) Taylor is second on the team in targets (53) and receptions (39), and simply does not come off the field, playing 99.4% of LSU’s offensive snaps this season. Alabama has allowed three SEC tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – RB Caden Durham ($5,800) LSU’s run game goes hot and cold, so it’s a major risk to roster Durham this week. The Tide are 17th in EPA per run play defensively but have allowed three SEC running backs to score 20 or more fantasy points already this season. LSU must be balanced on offense to win this game tonight, so Durham will play a role. How effective is TBD.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($7,700) Here’s the issue with rostering Kyren Lacy this week. LSU’s WR1 has three 100-yard performances this season. Two of those came with CJ Daniels either OUT or severely limited. Daniels is expected to play Saturday, so I’m not sure it makes a whole lot of sense to roster Lacy at this salary.
Injury Notes – n/a. For the first time in a while, nothing of note injury-wise for LSU this week. WR CJ Daniels was upgraded to probable on Friday.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -10.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: TCU 38 – OK St 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 10% rain / 4 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($6,700) It’s record watch season this late in the year for many players like Presley who needs one catch to become the school’s all-time leader in receptions. In this lost season for Oklahoma State, it sounds like the Cowboys will try and make a concerted effort to get Presley the rock on Saturday.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($6,800) This one is quite simple. Bowman will start on Saturday but beat writers have hinted that if Oklahoma State starts slow offensively, a permanent change could be made at the QB position. TCU is solid in the secondary, allowing just 19.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 39th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ayo Shotomide-King ($3,000) Looks like ASK played 50% of the team’s snaps last week which was a season-high, catching three passes on four targets.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,200) Simply no way anyone can stomach rostering Gordon for this price no matter the matchup with how disappointing the Oklahoma State run game has been in 2024. That said, it needs to be noted that TCU is 101st in yards allowed on the ground, 99th in rush D success rate and give up around 30 FPPG to opposing backfields. So long as bowl eligibility is a possibility (one more loss will eliminate Oklahoma State), I suspect the starters will continue to play their normal amount of reps.
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) or WR Rashod Owens ($5,000) Second and third on the team in targets and routes run this season. Boundary receivers like Stribling and Owens have found the most success against the Horned Frogs, with five players scoring 17 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 11 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.