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UCLA vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -4.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UW 25.5 – UCLA 21
Weather: 45 degrees / 52% rain / 2 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB T.J. Harden ($5,500) I was unable to watch the game last week due to being forced into attending a country concert. When I woke up Saturday morning, my jaw hit the floor when I saw that Harden rushed for 120 yards on 25 attempts against a very good Iowa run defense. Can we ride the hot hand for another week? Washington’s run defense is the weakness of the unit, ranked 97th in EPA per run play, 87th in rush D success rate and giving up around 24 FPPG to opposing backfields. Kudos to UCLA and Harden for picking the pieces up this season after a rough first two months.
Fade – QB Ethan Garbers ($6,700) A 22-point projection at this salary would normally keep Garbers in the pool of options for us. But we have two high-end options from the North Texas – UNT matchup, and this Washington secondary is still one of the best in the country, ranked 7th in pass D success rate and allowing just 13.6 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Logan Loya ($4,300) Loya has rebounded from his early-season injury, now first on the team among wideouts in targets (30), with four receiving touchdowns in the last six games. Even with UCLA’s resurgent run game last week, Loya managed a season-high seven targets. Two of the three receivers to score the most fantasy points against Washington this season play in the slot, where Loya resides 71% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Keegan Jones ($4,300) Jones’ versatility was on display last week with 38 yards rushing on seven attempts as the RB2 behind Harden, while also was targeted five times with four receptions. Recall back in the summer when Jones was previously committed to UConn as a wide receiver, but ultimately decided to renege that commitment.
Best of the Rest – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($4,500) The true freshman looks like a potential WR1 for the Bruins in 2025 with 141 of his 245 receiving yards this season coming in the last three games. Gilmer ran the most routes of any UCLA receiver last week vs. Iowa.
Injury Notes – WR Rico Flores ($4,800) Has not played since Week 5 vs. Oregon and may be preserving his redshirt at this point, having only participated in four games. TE Moliki Matavao ($3,600) would be the one to monitor for Friday as he was ruled out last week, and didn’t appear close to playing as he was on the sidelines in sweats during warmups. Matavao still leads the team in targets (37) this season.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,600) Here was a surprise that doesn’t apply to DFS at all – HC Jedd Fisch stated this week that Coleman was leaning towards coming back in 2025 for his senior year. But also could be noteworthy that we should still expect a full dosage of carries for Coleman on Friday and not trying to preserve his health just yet for the next level. UCLA run defense is 105th nationally in rush D success rate, but also held Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson to one of his lowest outputs of the season.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($7,200) Would rather play Ethan Garbers over Rogers at a lower cost and nearly double his projection. In fairness to Rogers, I’d be very surprised to see Demond Williams on the field this week as it’s Washington’s last chance to gain bowl eligibility, having to travel to Oregon next week.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($4,100) Latu was shut out of the box score for the first time this season, targeted just once in the loss to Penn State. Could see a decrease in ownership for that reason, but Latu did play his normal allotment of snaps last Saturday, on the field 92% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Denzel Boston ($7,700) Lowest output of the season for Boston last week vs. Penn State, targeted just three times with minimal yardage. The redshirt freshman still accounts for 60% of the team’s receiving touchdowns in 2024, and UCLA is a prime matchup as the Bruins are giving up around 42 fantasy points per game to opposing WR rooms. Five wide receivers have scored at least 19 fantasy points against UCLA this season, including last week where an Iowa receiver (yes you read that correctly) scored 20 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Giles Jackson ($6,000) Everything written above about Boston applies to Jackson as well, who is second on the team in targets (75), first in receptions (60) and second in routes run. WR Jeremiah Hunter ($4,100) is still in play, ranked fourth in targets (37) but he’s splitting snaps weekly now with Rashid Williams.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Ariz -1.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Ariz 23.5 – Hou 22
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 12 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.