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Tulane vs. Navy
Point-Spread: Tul -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tul 30.5 – Navy 24
Weather: 56 degrees / 1% rain / 13 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,600) Top play on the slate. Two of the last three running backs to face Navy this season have scored over 23 fantasy points in their respective matchups. The Midshipmen are 113th in rush D success rate and 74th in EPA per run play. Hughes gets all the carries for Tulane. You do the math.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($3,300) Prime transfer candidate after this season as Clayton-Johnson has completely fallen out of the rotation. Not that Tulane uses backup running backs much with Hughes on the roster, but Arnold Barnes and Trey Cornist were getting run ahead of SCJ in the prior game.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,200) Volume is down for Bauman under Tulane’s new coaching staff, averaging just 2.4 targets per game – that number was 3.6 targets per game a year ago. Bauman is still finding the end-zone, though, with as many receiving touchdowns (5) in eight games as he did in 13 games in 2023.
Pivot Play – Tulane WRs. They’re all cheap, and Tulane doesn’t rotate at all beyond Mario Williams, Yulkeith Brown and Dontae Fleming who account for over 60% of the team’s receiving production this year. Navy is allowing a combined 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WR rooms, which average 23% more fantasy production than their seasonal average when facing the Midshipmen.
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($5,800) Mensah hit big for us the last time he was on the main slate, scoring 20 fantasy points with three passing touchdowns at $5k. Salary is up slightly, but this probably isn’t the matchup to consider the redshirt freshman as Navy will slow down the pace and limit positions. Navy is giving up just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks and are top 40 nationally in both pass D success rate and EPA per play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy:
Total team fade most likely as it appears defenses are starting to figure out this Navy offense, and QB Blake Horvath ($9,300) is both expensive, and not scoring fantasy points at the same clip he was back in September and October. Notre Dame shut this offense down. We’ll throw out the Rice performance with weather causing an 8-hour delay. Both of those make sense. Scoring just 17 fantasy points against a mediocre USF defense is exposing some of the limitations Navy has offensively. Tulane has the No. 2 scoring defense in the AAC and is also No. 2 in fewest yards allowed per game in the conference. 70% of Navy’s offensive production this season has come from either Horvath, RB/WR Eli Heidenreich ($6,500), RB Brandon Chatman ($3,300) or FB Alex Tecza ($4,500) so if interested in rostering a Midshipmen in your lineup, those are the only options. Tulane is 9th in overall defensive success rate, 8th in EPA per pass play defensively and 28th in EPA per run play. We’re not expecting a shootout.
Texas vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tex -14.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Tex 36 – Ark 21.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,100) No reason at all that the team leader in receptions and routes run should be listed at this salary. Adding fuel to the fire with this Helm suggestion, Arkansas has struggled mightily to defend tight ends this season, allowing 13.7 FPPG to the position, including 31 fantasy points two weeks ago to Ole Miss tight end Dae’Quan Wright.
Fade – RB Jerrick Gibson ($5,300) We’re estimating here that Gibson’s extended run against Florida was because the Longhorns were up 35-0 at halftime. To be fair to Gibson, he was getting first half reps along with Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner, but his 16 rushing attempts were more than he’s had in each of the last four games combined. We’re predicting that Gibson moves back to his typical RB3 role on Saturday. And even if that didn’t occur and Gibson is a mainstay, then it’ll still be a three-way split backfield against an opponent that is 7th nationally in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Golden ($3,400) I mean, I get it, Texas spreads the ball around so much that the Longhorn pass-catchers don’t provide a ton of fantasy value. But Golden hast three touchdowns in the last two games and is second on the team in receptions. Too cheap.
Pivot Play – RB Tre Wisner ($5,900) or RB Jaydon Blue ($5,500) Texas throws the football to its running backs more than any other team in the country. Last four games for Wisner – 17 receptions on 22 targets. Blue leads Texas in targets despite playing in just eight games. Arkansas doesn’t allow a ton of fantasy points to running backs, but Blue / Wisner’s ability as pass-catchers could make them valuable on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) Ewers is in the middle pocket of QB salaries that doesn’t warrant starting him this week with just a 22-point projection. The Razorbacks allow 21.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, though were recently lit up by Jaxson Dart for 500+ passing yards. Arkansas is 121st in pass D success rate this season. WR Isaiah Bond ($5,000), DeAndre Moore ($3,800) and WR Ryan Wingo ($3,100) are all in play, facing a team that is giving up 45.1 collective fantasy points per week to opposing wide receivers. Wingo played the most snaps of any Texas receiver last week against the Gators, fwiw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,900) Armstrong accounts for 30% of Arkansas’ targets with over double the amount of receiving yards than the next closest wideout on the team. Eight or more targets for Armstrong in every single game played in 2024, with a game script that will likely force Arkansas to pass.
Fade – QB Taylen Green ($8,200) Easy choice to fade. No. 1 pass defense in the country with Texas, allowing just 7.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,200) Hasz seems to have ditched the nagging injuries that were plaguing him at the onset of the season and has found hit footing the last two games with a combined 136 receiving yards and three touchdowns, converting on all nine of his targets. The best two tight ends Texas faced this year – Colston Loveland and Eli Stowers – combined for 26 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,200) Tough to depend on Jackson who is coming back after missing the last three games due to injury. That said, Texas run defense STRUGGLED against Florida, allowing over 150 yards to the Gators’ top two backs. Jackson will be extra motivated this week being from the Dallas area and facing his former team.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Sategna ($3,800) Second on the team in targets (41), receptions (29) and routes run. The only other considerable option among Arkansas pass-catchers beyond Armstrong and Hasz.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Col -10.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Col 29 – Utah 18.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 12 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.