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Tennessee vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -10.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UGA 29.5 – UT 19
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 0 mph winds
Tennessee:
This will be a tremendous game to watch featuring two SEC teams likely to make the College Football Playoff and potentially win the National Title this year. And yet…we have almost zero interest in this game from a fantasy and DFS perspective. QB Nico Iamaleava ($5,300) was questionable heading into Friday before it was confirmed that he’ll start Saturday night. A 13-point projection doesn’t warrant consideration. RB Dylan Sampson ($8,500) is not 100% healthy either, and Georgia has yet to allow a running back to score more than 18 fantasy points this season. Sampson would need to hit at least 20 fantasy points to hit value.
We all know the situation at receiver for the Vols. If you were to select a Tennessee wideout, WR Bru McCoy ($3,600) would get the nod as his best performances have come in the Vols’ most important games this season. 92 yards in Week 4 on the road at Oklahoma when the Sooners were undefeated, and then 6-80-0 against Alabama in Week 8. McCoy seems to be Iamaleava’s security blanket. One off-the-radar position that could either hit or bust – tight end. Tennessee’s beat writer predicted that TE Holden Staes ($3,100) would score a touchdown this week. Staes and counterpart TE Miles Kitselman ($3,500) led the Vols in offensive snaps played last week against Mississippi State.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Nate Frazier ($3,400) Fairly straight-forward here with Frazier. Trevor Etienne is out, as is Georgia’s RB3 and RB4, and will have a former walk-on as the primary backup. 15-20 touches is a lock for Frazier and that is everything you can ask for from a player listed at $3.4k, even if it’s against a defense that is No. 1 in rush D success rate and No. 3 in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($7,300) I saw it openly asked by a few reputable personalities on Twitter last week if Georgia should make a QB change after throwing for just 186 yards with one interception and five sacks against Ole Miss. Tennessee is statistically better at defending the run but are giving up just 10.4 FPPG this season to opposing QBs. Not one quarterback has scored more than 12 fantasy points against Tennessee ALL YEAR. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($3,300) Luckie should play a bigger role in the passing offense with a pass-catching back like Etienne out of the lineup. Luckie is fifth on the team in targets (21) and receptions (15), while tied for second on the team with three receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – n/a.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Aside from Frazier, one of the Georgia receivers would be the next best play on the Georgia side, as the top three of Dom Lovett, Arian Smith and Dillon Bell all play over 60% of the team’s snaps, and we don’t expect Georgia to have a ton of running room against this Tennessee defense. Four of the top five wide receiver performances against Tennessee this season have been boundary receivers, meaning we’ll look to either Bell or Smith if choosing one UGA wideout. That would align this week as Lovett, Georgia’s starting slot receiver, is playing fewer snaps the last two games than both Smith and Bell.
Injury Notes – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,100) Confirmed out.
Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Oreg -14
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: Oreg 33 – UW 19
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($4,400) and / or WR Traeshon Holden ($3,500) We don’t expect Tez Johnson to play Saturday, and these salaries are insanely low for Oregon’s top two receivers (sans Johnson). Stewart was the main beneficiary last week with seven targets and a touchdown vs. Maryland. Holden had a quiet night but moved into the coveted slot position replacing Johnson.
Fade – RB Jordan James ($8,000) James finished last week with 29 yards on just seven carries which were both the lowest marks of the season. HC Dan Lanning said after the game that, “I’m not exactly sure where he’s at. I think he could have gone back in, but we’re being pretty conscientious of where he was at.” James has been less than 100% since the Purdue game, and we’re not anticipating a heavy workload until the conference championship game or even the College Football Playoff.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,300) or WR Justius Lowe ($3,000) These prices make no sense. Ferguson had a season-high 12 targets last week against Maryland. Lowe could be Oregon’s WR1 in 2025 and has now played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games. Five tight ends have scored at least nine fantasy points this season against Wisconsin, so Ferguson is one of the better bargains on the slate.
Pivot Play – RB Noah Whittington ($3,500) If James remains limited, Whittington could function again as the team’s RB1, as he rushed for a season-high 77 yards on 13 carries last week against the Terps. His 56% of snaps played were also Whittington’s highest mark for the season. Wisconsin’s run defense is the “weakness” of the unit, ranked 73rd in rush D success rate and 112th in EPA per run play defensively.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,200) There’s enough bargain plays on the night slate to where you can muster up the coin the pay for Gabriel at QB. You know what you’re going to get from Gabriel, even without his WR1, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. Just not sure this game will go back and forth enough to where Gabriel will be able to score 30+ points against a good secondary.
Injury Notes – WR Tez Johnson ($7,400) We’re not expecting to see Tez Johnson until at least the B1G championship game.
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 12 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.