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Ole Miss vs. Florida
Point-Spread: Miss -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Miss 33 – UF 22.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,100) Dart is expected to have his full complement of receivers available on Saturday with Tre Harris, Antwane Wells and Jordan Watkins all probable as of Wednesday. Florida’s secondary is the strength of the defensive unit, ranked 46th in pass D success rate and giving up just 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. But we’re intrigued by Dart with all available receivers at his disposal and no clear cut RB1 in the backfield.
Fade – RB Dominique Thomas ($4,400) For starters, Thomas should not be priced ahead of RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,200). While Florida will give up chunks on the ground, we’re very tentative about rostering anyone from this group. Bentley feels like the top choice, but Matt Jones is also back this week and was ahead of Bentley on the depth chart prior to his injury. Not to mention that Logan Diggs is back practicing and could be another variable the makes this situation all the more messy.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,800) Wright has been the better receiving option of late between he and Caden Prieskorn, with 14 of his 19 receptions this season coming in the last three games. Florida is giving up 11.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($9,300) This is really for GPP only, but we’ll side with a healthy Harris as the top option for Ole Miss who was ranked in the top three among fantasy wide receivers prior to his injury.
Best of the Rest – WR Cayden Lee ($5,400) or WR Jordan Watkins ($5,700) Both are playable at their pricing, but each are downgraded with Harris’ return to the lineup. Between Week’s 1-5, prior to his injury, Harris was accounting for over 37% of Ole Miss’ target share with no other Rebel receiver being much of a factor.
Injury Notes – Monitor Tre Harris’ status in pregame to ensure he’s a go, along with the Ole Miss backfield to see if Logan Diggs might potentially suit up.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Kobi Jackson ($4,400) or RB Jadan Baugh ($4,500) Bad matchup, and we would not under any circumstance stack the two Florida running backs together in a lineup vs. this Ole Miss defense that is No. 2 nationally in rush D success rate. But, this duo has been productive over the last month with a combined 10 rushing touchdowns between the two in the last four games. Two of the last three opponents Ole Miss has faced have rushed for 130+ yards on the ground.
Fade – RB Montrell Johnson ($4,300) Johnson played just seven snaps last week vs. LSU with two carries for minimal yardage. That was just his first game back from injury, but our impression is that this backfield has been fully turned over to the two runners that will be on the roster in 2025 as the Gators build momentum towards next year.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Don’t play any Florida options priced under $4.4k.
Pivot Play – WRs Elijhah Badger ($5,100) or WR Chimere Dike ($4,400) Florida has thrown 49 passes in the last two games. 24 of those passes have gone to either Dike or Badger, and the latter didn’t even play in one of those weeks. No Florida player beyond those two has been targeted more than three times in the last two games. Four SEC receivers have scored at least 17 fantasy points this season vs. Ole Miss.
Best of the Rest – QB DJ Lagway ($5,000) You just know that there will be folks who will play Lagway this week at this pricing. Our projection strongly advises against that, as do the defensive metrics for Ole Miss, ranking 30th in pass D success rate and 15th in EPA per pass play defensively. Florida will not be able to ground and pound, though, against this Ole Miss front like they’ve done the past few weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a.
North Carolina vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: UNC -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UNC 30 – BC 26.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 32% rain / 12 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($9,600) I thought with how North Carolina’s season has played out that Hampton might shut things down a bit in preparation for the NFL next year. Not the case at all, as he’s had 30+ rushing attempts in each of the last two games, combining for over 100 fantasy points. Boston College will at least provide some resistance that Wake Forest and Florida State could not, as the Eagles are 10th in rush D success rate and 19th in EPA per run play defensively. But four ACC running backs have also scored over 23 fantasy points this season against BC, including the 50-burger from Bhayshul Tuten earlier in the year.
Fade – WR Nate McCollum ($4,500) I was going to include WR Kobe Paysour ($4,200) in this section, but he at least played 77% of the snaps last week vs. WF. McCollum’s time with North Carolina is likely coming to an end after this year, whether he tries for the next level or hits the portal again. Just two targets in the last two games and was on the field just 44% of the time.
Bargain Bin – TE John Copenhaver ($3,500) Copenhaver is likely to be one of the highest-owned bargain bin plays this week. Production isn’t great, but with Bryson Nesbit out of the lineup, Copenhaver has played over 90% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games with 14 targets in that stretch. Four tight ends have scored 11 or more fantasy points against BC this season.
Pivot Play – WR J.J. Jones ($5,800) Four touchdowns in the last four games for Jones, who isn’t seeing high volume with Omarion Hampton dominating the touches for the UNC offense, but is still getting his normal share of reps, on the field over 70% of the time. BC is giving up 39.9 fantasy points a week to opposing WR rooms, and Jones is easily the most consistent of that group for UNC.
Best of the Rest – QB Jacolby Criswell ($7,000) Would be one of the stronger leverage plays against the field as it’s tough to trust the UNC passing game with how Omarion Hampton is rolling of late. BC only gives up around 19 FPPG to quarterbacks, but the Eagles are 116th in pass D success rate and 90th in EPA per pass play defensively. If forced to throw, UNC should be able to move the ball through the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – RB Kye Robichaux ($5,600) Nearly 300 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last two games for Robichaux who is getting the bulk of the carries in the BC backfield with a few injuries to Turbo Richard and Treshaun Ward. With Thomas Castellanos no longer around, we should see the RBs getting more carries with the QB position no longer a factor in the run game.
Fade – QB Grayson James ($6,400) If you’re spending down at the QB position, there are multiple options with better projections, primarily Behren Morton with a game total near 70 and UCF’s Dylan Rizk who gets a matchup with the worst pass defense in the Big 12. BC’s passing game is below average and will be missing multiple pieces in the wide receiver room due to injuries.
Bargain Bin – TE Kamari Morales ($4,000) Three touchdowns in the last five games for Morales who has the storyline factor this week, facing his former team. Morales led all BC players last week with six targets. Boston College’s WR room is decimated with injury, so tight ends should be a bigger factor this week.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($4,900) Bond accounts for 31% of the target share and 32% of the team’s receiving production. His 46 receptions are almost triple the number of the next closest wide receiver on the roster.
Best of the Rest – WR Reed Harris ($4,200) Reed has a season-high 78 yards and four receptions on five targets last week against SMU and has played over 88% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three games. RB Jordan McDonald ($5,500) is too expensive for a backup but looks like he could be a factor in 2025, averaging over eight yards per carry this season. Even with Robichaux rolling like he is, McDonald has received double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – Turbo Richard, Jaedn Skeete and Jerand Bradley are all expected to be out.
Wake Forest vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -23.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Mia 44 – WF 20.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 13 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.