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Boise State vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: BSU -23
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: BSU 40 – Wyo 17
Weather: 43 degrees / 6% rain / 20 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($13,900) Whether it’s Jeanty or John Mateer for Washington State, you’re just going to have to swallow one of their salaries and live with it this week, because the options are limited on this dreadful slate of substandard offenses to choose from. Cold conditions with 20 MPH winds sounds like an Ashton Jeanty type game to me. Wyoming is 104th in EPA per run play defensively, allowing 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – WR Prince Strachan ($3,500) Austin Bolt played more snaps than Strachan did last week against San Jose State, and Boise State went to more two-tight end sets in a run-heavy script, keeping only two wide receivers on the field the majority of the time. As 23-point favorites, we could see Boise deploy a similar strategy this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Latrell Caples ($3,300) Slot receivers have cooked this Wyoming secondary, with the likes of DT Sheffield (24 fpts), Ryan Davis (19 fpts) and Jordan Napier (19 fpts). As we alluded to above, Boise State only had two wideouts on the field much of the game last week with Caples and Cam Camper playing over 60% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,000) 22-point projection at $7k is strong, but the weather conditions don’t favor the passing game here. If the winds aren’t a factor, Maddux has a favorable matchup as Wyoming is 118th in pass D success rate, 88th in EPA per pass play and giving up 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($4,700) Team leader in every receiving category, averaging 4.0 receptions on 5.8 targets per game. TE Matt Lauter ($3,600) has not been as big a receiving threat as he was back in late September but has caught three touchdowns in the last four games. Limit one Boise State pass-catcher to a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylen Sargent ($4,900) There really is no top play on the Wyoming side with no player projected to score more than 12 fantasy points according to theCFFSite projections. Sargent seems to be the preferred WR option for Kaden Anderson, with over 200 receiving yards in the last two weeks. Sargent ran the most routes of any Wyoming receiver last Friday vs. Colorado State. We also like his 21.3 YPC average and 15.9 aDOT.
Fade – RB Sam Scott and Jamari Ferrell. We’ll touch on Waylee a bit more below. But it sounds like HC Jay Sawvel knows that he needs to get his RB1 more touches this week. “We abandoned (the run with Waylee) too early, and didn’t give him enough touches,” Sawvel said. “That’s not going to be part of the plan going forward. … Harrison Waylee needs to play more, Harrison Waylee needs to touch it more, and that’s where we’re at.”
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Durr ($3,700) Get the freshman more touches. Durr only played 20% of the snaps last week vs. CSU, but still finished the game with seven targets. Remember this is a player who had double-digit receptions all the way back in April in the team’s spring game.
Pivot Play – RB Harrison Waylee ($7,900) The ultimate pivot play on the slate. After making his triumphant return in Week 10 with 170 yards with a touchdown against New Mexico, Waylee was relegated to just eight rushing attempts in the loss to Colorado State. Wyoming’s head coach gave no clear indication as to why that was the case, but easy to assume that he’s not 100% given Waylee has rarely been fully healthy during his collegiate career. Boise State is only giving up 14.6 FPPG to running backs this season, so most likely a fade, but we’ve seen slate-breaking upside from him in the past.
Best of the Rest – QB Kaden Anderson ($6,700) Don’t have much of a sample size yet to truly assess Anderson as a fantasy candidate, with a 33-point performance against New Mexico in Week 10, followed by 11 fantasy points against Colorado State. We do have enough sample size with the Boise State defense this season. The Broncos are allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks, and some fairly average ones at that with JC French, Walker Eget and Spencer Petras all scoring over 28 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($4,300) Injuries have plagued JMG all year long. Officially questionable for Saturday night. If we get confirmation that Gyllenborg is a go, he’s an option as he leads Wyoming in receptions and targets despite playing in just 7-of-10 games this season. It’s also probably not worth the risk considering Wyoming’s implied team total and relative ineptness this season on offense.
Washington State vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -12.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 34.5 – OSU 22
Weather: 48 degrees / 69% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($11,400) Tough pill to swallow from a salary standpoint, but Mateer is the No. 1 projected player in all of college fantasy football this week and is QB1 in CFF currently, averaging over 40 FPPG. Oregon State is below average against the pass, ranked 112th in EPA per pass play, 93rd in pass D success rate and giving up 22.7 FPPG. We’ll check in on the weather in the pregame as precipitation is expected. QBs are scoring 27% more than their seasonal average when facing the Beavers this season.
Fade – WR Josh Meredith ($4,400) Carlos Hernandez’ return to the lineup has really diminished Meredith’s role in the offense, now the second slot receiver behind Kris Hutson. Meredith is down to playing just 33.6% of the team’s snaps over the last four games with under 50 receiving yards in each of the last six weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,700) Hernandez was arguably Wazzu’s best receiver this offseason prior to his injury, consistently showing up in practice reports as a top performer. Since his return, Hernandez now has at least four receptions in each of the last four games with three touchdowns in that span. The last two weeks, Hernandez is played over 87% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Wayshawn Parker ($5,700) Unsure as to why the equal split in carries last week between Parker and Leo Pulalasi, but there is no injury tag for Parker. Unless we get some sort of clarification either way, we still favor the freshman here who had just rushed for 149 yards and two scores the week prior against Utah State. Oregon State is atrocious defending the run, ranked 128th in rush D success rate and 127th in EPA per run play.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Williams ($7,700) or WR Kris Hutson ($5,400) Definitely side with Williams of the two options, as the senior wideout has three receiving touchdowns in EACH of the last two games. Mountain West WR1s have feasted on this secondary, all of which play outside as does Williams, with Tory Horton (30 fpts), Nick Nash (28 fpts) and Ricky White (24 fpts).
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Hankerson ($7,600) You’re stacking the box if you’re Washington State to force whichever Oregon State quarterback gets the start to beat you. Hankerson was limited to just six rushing attempts last week as Air Force jumped all over Oregon State early in the game and forced the Beavers out of their comfort zone. Washington State does not stop the run well, ranked 110th in rush D success rate and 128th in EPA per run play, but this Oregon State offense is trending downwards to a point that Hankerson gets game-scripted out of relevancy.
Fade – QBs. Is it Ben Gulbranson? It is Gevani McCoy? Will third-string Gabarri Johnson see the field again, just as he did in the blowout loss to Air Force last week? You get the point why this is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Jermaine Terry ($3,200) Playing time is way up for Terry since Oregon State’s bye week, playing 92.4% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last six games. Three Mountain West tight ends have scored at least 11 or more fantasy points against the Cougars this season.
Pivot Play – WR Trent Walker ($5,200) Four of the last five games Walker has accounted for over 30% of Oregon State’s weekly target share as the Beavers really don’t throw to anyone else. Wide receiver rooms are averaging over 46 fantasy points weekly against Wazzu this season. Just need some semblance of consistency from the quarterback position, and Walker is a fine play.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Noga ($3,200) Noga has run the second most routes on the team behind Walker in the last five games, including a 94-yard performance back in Week 7 vs. Nevada. Noga is on the field around 74% of the time in that five-game stretch.
Injury Notes – QB Ben Gulbranson has yet to be cleared for Saturday. Strong likelihood we see two Oregon State QBs on Saturday regardless of Gulbranson’s status.
Baylor vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Bayl -8.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Bayl 29.5 – Hou 21
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 13 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.