Boise State vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: BSU -23
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: BSU 40 – Wyo 17
Weather: 43 degrees / 6% rain / 20 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($13,900) Whether it’s Jeanty or John Mateer for Washington State, you’re just going to have to swallow one of their salaries and live with it this week, because the options are limited on this dreadful slate of substandard offenses to choose from. Cold conditions with 20 MPH winds sounds like an Ashton Jeanty type game to me. Wyoming is 104th in EPA per run play defensively, allowing 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – WR Prince Strachan ($3,500) Austin Bolt played more snaps than Strachan did last week against San Jose State, and Boise State went to more two-tight end sets in a run-heavy script, keeping only two wide receivers on the field the majority of the time. As 23-point favorites, we could see Boise deploy a similar strategy this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Latrell Caples ($3,300) Slot receivers have cooked this Wyoming secondary, with the likes of DT Sheffield (24 fpts), Ryan Davis (19 fpts) and Jordan Napier (19 fpts). As we alluded to above, Boise State only had two wideouts on the field much of the game last week with Caples and Cam Camper playing over 60% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,000) 22-point projection at $7k is strong, but the weather conditions don’t favor the passing game here. If the winds aren’t a factor, Maddux has a favorable matchup as Wyoming is 118th in pass D success rate, 88th in EPA per pass play and giving up 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($4,700) Team leader in every receiving category, averaging 4.0 receptions on 5.8 targets per game. TE Matt Lauter ($3,600) has not been as big a receiving threat as he was back in late September but has caught three touchdowns in the last four games. Limit one Boise State pass-catcher to a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylen Sargent ($4,900) There really is no top play on the Wyoming side with no player projected to score more than 12 fantasy points according to theCFFSite projections. Sargent seems to be the preferred WR option for Kaden Anderson, with over 200 receiving yards in the last two weeks. Sargent ran the most routes of any Wyoming receiver last Friday vs. Colorado State. We also like his 21.3 YPC average and 15.9 aDOT.
Fade – RB Sam Scott and Jamari Ferrell. We’ll touch on Waylee a bit more below. But it sounds like HC Jay Sawvel knows that he needs to get his RB1 more touches this week. “We abandoned (the run with Waylee) too early, and didn’t give him enough touches,” Sawvel said. “That’s not going to be part of the plan going forward. … Harrison Waylee needs to play more, Harrison Waylee needs to touch it more, and that’s where we’re at.”
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Durr ($3,700) Get the freshman more touches. Durr only played 20% of the snaps last week vs. CSU, but still finished the game with seven targets. Remember this is a player who had double-digit receptions all the way back in April in the team’s spring game.
Pivot Play – RB Harrison Waylee ($7,900) The ultimate pivot play on the slate. After making his triumphant return in Week 10 with 170 yards with a touchdown against New Mexico, Waylee was relegated to just eight rushing attempts in the loss to Colorado State. Wyoming’s head coach gave no clear indication as to why that was the case, but easy to assume that he’s not 100% given Waylee has rarely been fully healthy during his collegiate career. Boise State is only giving up 14.6 FPPG to running backs this season, so most likely a fade, but we’ve seen slate-breaking upside from him in the past.
Best of the Rest – QB Kaden Anderson ($6,700) Don’t have much of a sample size yet to truly assess Anderson as a fantasy candidate, with a 33-point performance against New Mexico in Week 10, followed by 11 fantasy points against Colorado State. We do have enough sample size with the Boise State defense this season. The Broncos are allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks, and some fairly average ones at that with JC French, Walker Eget and Spencer Petras all scoring over 28 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($4,300) Injuries have plagued JMG all year long. Officially questionable for Saturday night. If we get confirmation that Gyllenborg is a go, he’s an option as he leads Wyoming in receptions and targets despite playing in just 7-of-10 games this season. It’s also probably not worth the risk considering Wyoming’s implied team total and relative ineptness this season on offense.
Washington State vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -12.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 34.5 – OSU 22
Weather: 48 degrees / 69% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($11,400) Tough pill to swallow from a salary standpoint, but Mateer is the No. 1 projected player in all of college fantasy football this week and is QB1 in CFF currently, averaging over 40 FPPG. Oregon State is below average against the pass, ranked 112th in EPA per pass play, 93rd in pass D success rate and giving up 22.7 FPPG. We’ll check in on the weather in the pregame as precipitation is expected. QBs are scoring 27% more than their seasonal average when facing the Beavers this season.
Fade – WR Josh Meredith ($4,400) Carlos Hernandez’ return to the lineup has really diminished Meredith’s role in the offense, now the second slot receiver behind Kris Hutson. Meredith is down to playing just 33.6% of the team’s snaps over the last four games with under 50 receiving yards in each of the last six weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,700) Hernandez was arguably Wazzu’s best receiver this offseason prior to his injury, consistently showing up in practice reports as a top performer. Since his return, Hernandez now has at least four receptions in each of the last four games with three touchdowns in that span. The last two weeks, Hernandez is played over 87% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Wayshawn Parker ($5,700) Unsure as to why the equal split in carries last week between Parker and Leo Pulalasi, but there is no injury tag for Parker. Unless we get some sort of clarification either way, we still favor the freshman here who had just rushed for 149 yards and two scores the week prior against Utah State. Oregon State is atrocious defending the run, ranked 128th in rush D success rate and 127th in EPA per run play.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Williams ($7,700) or WR Kris Hutson ($5,400) Definitely side with Williams of the two options, as the senior wideout has three receiving touchdowns in EACH of the last two games. Mountain West WR1s have feasted on this secondary, all of which play outside as does Williams, with Tory Horton (30 fpts), Nick Nash (28 fpts) and Ricky White (24 fpts).
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Hankerson ($7,600) You’re stacking the box if you’re Washington State to force whichever Oregon State quarterback gets the start to beat you. Hankerson was limited to just six rushing attempts last week as Air Force jumped all over Oregon State early in the game and forced the Beavers out of their comfort zone. Washington State does not stop the run well, ranked 110th in rush D success rate and 128th in EPA per run play, but this Oregon State offense is trending downwards to a point that Hankerson gets game-scripted out of relevancy.
Fade – QBs. Is it Ben Gulbranson? It is Gevani McCoy? Will third-string Gabarri Johnson see the field again, just as he did in the blowout loss to Air Force last week? You get the point why this is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Jermaine Terry ($3,200) Playing time is way up for Terry since Oregon State’s bye week, playing 92.4% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last six games. Three Mountain West tight ends have scored at least 11 or more fantasy points against the Cougars this season.
Pivot Play – WR Trent Walker ($5,200) Four of the last five games Walker has accounted for over 30% of Oregon State’s weekly target share as the Beavers really don’t throw to anyone else. Wide receiver rooms are averaging over 46 fantasy points weekly against Wazzu this season. Just need some semblance of consistency from the quarterback position, and Walker is a fine play.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Noga ($3,200) Noga has run the second most routes on the team behind Walker in the last five games, including a 94-yard performance back in Week 7 vs. Nevada. Noga is on the field around 74% of the time in that five-game stretch.
Injury Notes – QB Ben Gulbranson has yet to be cleared for Saturday. Strong likelihood we see two Oregon State QBs on Saturday regardless of Gulbranson’s status.
Baylor vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Bayl -8.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Bayl 29.5 – Hou 21
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($3,500) Several wildly mis-priced players on this slate, Hawkins being one of them, now with 50 or more receiving yards in four of his last six games. Hawkins is now tied for the team lead in receptions (34), is second in routes behind only Josh Cameron, and has played over 70% of the team’s snaps in each of the last four games. Could be debated that Hawkins is the best point per dollar value on the Baylor side.
Fade – n/a.
Bargain Bin – WR Hal Presley ($3,200) Presley has been quiet the last two weeks but was also on the injury report with an undisclosed injury which could be the cause for his lack of production. Against West Virginia in Week 12, Presley still played nearly 80% of the team’s snaps, so he could potentially be a cheaper pivot play away from Hawkins who will have much more ownership.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($7,500) There may not be a hotter fantasy running back in the country right now than Washington who’s scored 50+ fantasy points in each of the last two games. Houston does rank 34th in rush D success rate, so we’re not anticipating that streak extending to three games, but each of the last four running backs faced this season have scored at least 17 fantasy points against the Cougars.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,100) This might be a week to limit exposure with Robertson who is facing a defense that is allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. RB Dawson Pendergrass ($3,300) has found the end-zone once in each of the last three games, so don’t bypass him despite Washington’s emergence. WR Josh Cameron ($4,800) continues to be the team’s leader in all receiving categories, now with 15 targets combined in the last two games. I’d limit my lineups to just one Baylor receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Zeon Chriss ($5,200) Last week’s performance against Arizona looked like the September version of Houston, scoring just three points in a lopsided loss. QBs have been able to rack up the fantasy points against Baylor this season, particularly over this second half of the year, as teams have been in trailing positions against this red-hot Baylor offense. Opposing QBs are averaging 22 FPPG against Baylor, with four quarterbacks from the B12 scoring at least 26 fantasy points against the Bears. 60 or more rushing yards for Chriss in four of the last five games, as he’s easily the top spend-down option at the position on this slate.
Fade – RB Stacy Sneed ($3,600) Sneed made his return from injury last week, but played all of seven snaps and didn’t receive a single carry. Freshmen rule this backfield now.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephon Johnson ($3,500) or WR Joseph Manjack ($3,900) The WR duo combined for 130 receiving yards vs. Arizona last week and consistently play over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. As we alluded to above, most teams in the last two months have been in a trailing position against Baylor, so the passing game components tend to rack up some points, even if it’s in garbage time. Opposing WRs are combining to average over 43 fantasy points in their matchups with Baylor.
Pivot Play – RB Re’Shaun Sanford ($4,100) Sanford has rushed for 70+ yards in two of the last three games and was utilized heavily in the passing game against Arizona, converting on all five of his targets. Four B12 running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Baylor this season, and RBs are averaging 11.2% more than their seasonal average when facing the Bears.
Best of the Rest – TE Maliq Carr ($3,200) Carr plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps but has a combined two receiving yards in the last three games. For Houston, we’re really only interested in Chriss primarily, with Johnson, Manjack and Sanford being extreme longshots.
Injury Notes – n/a
Army vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -14.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ND 29.5 – Army 15
Weather: 46 degrees / 4% rain / 14 mph winds
Army:
This will be a game to avoid most likely on both sides as Army and Notre Dame rank No. 1 and 3, respectively, in scoring defense. While Army must do deal with the Irish’s elite pass defense, Notre Dame will be facing the uphill challenge of just having the ball on offense as the Black Knights are second nationally in time of possession. Helpful to us is that we already have a game of evidence with Notre Dame facing a triple option team, as the Irish beat Navy back in late October.
Navy’s Blake Horvath did score 22 fantasy points in the game, including 100 yards on the ground, which is coincidentally the same projection we have for QB Bryson Daily ($9,800) this week. At this price, you need 30+ from Daily to hit value, and we just don’t see that as a realistic outcome. Notre Dame is allowing just 11.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. RB Kanye Udoh ($5,900) is second on the team with 856 yards and nine touchdowns, but his best performance this season – 27 fpts against Air Force – came without Daily in the lineup. His value is minimalized because of how centric the QB run game is in this offense. RB / WR Noah Short ($4,800) likely plays a crucial offensive roll because of his versatility on that side of the ball, ranked third on the team with 439 rushing yards (10.7 YPC), but also second in targets (17) and receiving yards. Short is our favorite option on the Army side because of his pricing and multiple pathways to scoring fantasy points. WR Casey Reynolds ($3,000) is the team leader in targets, receptions and receiving yards.
Notre Dame:
Going to keep this one brief as well. QB Riley Leonard ($8,800) has been rolling, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in each of the last eight games. And if we’re going the Navy game comparison, Leonard had over 250 total yards and three scores in the win. But Army is a different animal defensively, allowing just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks. Upside is limited here, and there’s cheaper options at the QB spot. Army has not faced a back like RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,500) this season, but the Knights are even more dominant against the run, allowing a combined 11.3 FPPG to running backs this season. Notre Dame pass-catchers don’t interest us with leading WR Beaux Collins ($3,300) accounting for just 18% of the team’s target share. If wanting to have one in your lineup, we’d look to Collins, TE Mitchell Evans ($3,300), WR Jordan Faison ($3,200) or WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,200) who is expected to play after leaving the game early last week vs. Virginia. Not necessary at all to roster one, given how spread out the receiving production is for the Irish.
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: A&M -2.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: A&M 24.5 – Aub 22
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Amari Daniels ($3,500) I don’t think DraftKings realizes that Le’Veon Moss is out for the season yet. Sure, Daniels had just five attempts against New Mexico State in Week 12, but we’re baking in the notion that it was a blowout, and the Aggies cannot risk any further injury to Daniels with Moss being out for the remainder of the year. Regardless of how good Auburn is defensively against the run, Daniels is a must at this pricing for a player that is nearly guaranteed to see 15+ touches.
Fade – WR Moose Muhammad ($3,200) Muhammad caught a touchdown against New Mexico State and could see increased playing time potentially with Cyrus Allen now out for the season. But the senior receiver was in the doghouse prior to that in terms of playing time, on the field just 17% of the time in the prior five games.
Bargain Bin – WRs. Everyone on A&M is essentially a bargain bin option with these salaries. Noah Thomas continues to be the preferred choice among the group, leading the Aggies in targets (49) yards (390) and touchdowns (4). Despite playing in nine games, Jabre Barber leads A&M in receptions (27). In A&M’s last competitive matchup, Barber had a season-best seven catches for 80 yards and a score on 10 targets. Four of the top five receiving performances against Auburn this season have come from slot receivers, of which Barber plays inside 88% of the time.
Pivot Play – QB Marcel Reed ($6,000) Reed is a dynamic athlete outside of the pocket and Auburn has had significant issues containing dual threat quarterbacks this season. Taylen Green had 80 yards rushing. Michael Hawkins went for 69 rushing yards. The combination of Auburn playing man coverage + blitzing at a high rate will lead to open field and backs turned with the DBs if the QB decides to scramble. On the season, though, Auburn is giving up just 13.9 FPPG to quarterbacks, so Reed is not a high priority.
Best of the Rest – TE Tre Watson ($3,200) The Fresno transfer had a season-best 67 yards on six targets against New Mexico State, continuing to see more snaps than any other Aggie tight end. WR Jahdae Walker ($3,300) is probably the player benefiting the most with Cyrus Allen now out for the season, as he is solidified in one starting role on the outside.
Injury Notes – Le’Veon Moss and Cyrus Allen are out for the year.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Coleman ($3,400) Firmly on the narrative train here with Coleman in that Auburn must feed their 5-star both targets and cash if they’re to keep him on the roster in 2025. Last week was a start, as Coleman went for 100 yards and three touchdowns, converting on all eight of his targets. The freshman receiver has played north of 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three games.
Fade – QB Payton Thorne ($6,900) Against non-SEC opponents, Thorne is averaging 31.2 FPPG. Against SEC opponents, that number drops to just 14.7 FPPG. If you didn’t know, Texas A&M is an SEC opponent.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,200) Tight ends usually fit into the bargain bin slot, but this suggestion is warranted for Fairweather who ranks second on the team in targets (40), third in receptions (26) and third in routes run. A&M has had difficulty defending the position this year, allowing some huge performances, most notably the last time the Aggies played an SEC opponent with Josh Simon scoring 29 fantasy points. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin did to the Aggies what he does to most opponents, also surpassing 28 fantasy points with over 100 receiving yards against A&M.
Pivot Play – RB Jarquez Hunter ($6,100) 430 of Hunter’s 1,015 rushing yards this season have come in the last three games alone. Against South Carolina back in Week 11, the Aggies allowed a season-high 39.6 fantasy points to Rocket Sanders. The Aggies are not impenetrable on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($5,300) or WR Malcolm Simmons ($3,800) KLS continues to pace the Auburn WR room with team-highs in targets (61), receptions (40), yards (761) with 33% of the Tigers’ receiving touchdowns for the season. Simmons has really popped up over the last seven games with at least three receptions in every game during that span and has a terrific 87% catch rate on 39 targets. Simmons played a season-best 63% of snaps last week vs. ULM.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Ala -13.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Ala 30.5 – OU 17
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Germie Bernard ($3,800) This is a ridiculous price for Bernard who is first on the team in routes run with 70 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games. He won’t be the 1,000-yard receiver we projected in the offseason, but Bernard is too integral a piece of the Alabama offense to be sub-$4k.
Fade – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,300) We need at least 30 fantasy points from Milroe to hit value on this slate, and he has the same projection as Avery Johnson who is $3k cheaper. For all the faults of Oklahoma this season, the pass defense has not been one of them, allowing just 14.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. Coincidentally, the only QB to score more than 20 fantasy points against the Sooners this season has been…. Payton Thorne of all people.
Bargain Bin – TE CJ Dippre ($3,100) Dippre ranks third on the team behind Williams and Bernard in most receiving categories and has a plus-matchup against an Oklahoma defense that has struggled to defend the tight end position, allowing 13.7 FPPG. Tight ends are scoring about 26% more than their seasonal average when facing the Sooners, with five SEC players scoring at least 10 fantasy points in their matchups.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Williams ($6,500) Did you guys hear that Ryan Williams is 17-years old? Never knew that before today. Did you also hear that Matthew Stafford and Clayton Kershaw went to the same high school? I digress. Williams leads the team in targets, receptions, and has 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – RBs. As has been the case most weeks, this is closer to a fade situation with Jam Miller and Justice Haynes as the Alabama run game continues to underperform outside of the QB power runs with Milroe. Oklahoma is 4th in rush D success rate nationally and 2nd in EPA per run play. The Sooners allow just a combined 17 fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Taylor Tatum ($3,700) or RB Xavier Robinson ($3,000) Only way for Oklahoma to win this game is slow the pace, create turnovers on defense and win the field position battle. Tatum and Robinson impressed vs. Missouri in Week 11, combining for 81 yards on 17 carries. Alabama’s run defense is average, allowing 23 fantasy points to opposing backfields and just 59th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Jackson Arnold ($5,900) Our focus with Arnold shifts to 2025. Does he remain on the roster or hit the portal for greener pastures? The latter is the likliest outcome in my mind. Why? Washington State’s Ben Arbuckle is now the odds-on favorite to become Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator after this season, and probably brings John Mateer over with him, if he has a say.
Bargain Bin – TE Bauer Sharp ($3,100) SEC tight ends have had a fair amount of success against Alabama this season, averaging around 9.2 FPPG. Sharp was tied for the team lead with five receptions on six targets in Week 11, playing 84% of the team’s snaps. He’s the most trusted option in the passing game at this point with so many WR injuries.
Pivot Play – WR Jacob Jordan ($3,100) Deion Burks being out again means Jordan steps into the starting slot position where he thrived for a three-week span, catching 15 passes on 18 targets with a touchdown. Played just one snap against Missouri, but that was with Burks in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR J.J. Hester ($3,300) and WR Brenan Thompson ($4,100) We’d strongly advise to fade the entire Oklahoma passing game. If Jackson Arnold gets off to a slow start again this week, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Michael Hawkins getting on the field at some point, and we know how that experiment went. Thompson and Hester will start outside, barring a Jalil Farooq return (unlikely), and those two played over 67% of the snaps vs. Missouri two weeks ago.
Injury Notes – WR Deion Burks is ruled out. RB Jovantae Barnes will be a game-time decision as he is questionable. WR Jalil Farooq is also questionable for return after the bye week. Team totals and matchups don’t suggest we should risk playing questionable players.
Iowa State vs. Utah
Point-Spread: ISU -7
O/U Total: 42
Implied Score: ISU 24.5 – Utah 17.5
Weather: 50 degrees / 42% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($7,300) or WR Jaylin Noel ($7,000) Ya’ll already know the drill here if you’ve read our writeups this season. 62% of Iowa State’s total target share and 12 of the 17 receiving touchdowns. This low of a game total, though, suggests we do not stack the two together in the same lineup. Four of the five highest scoring receivers to face Utah this season have been boundary receivers, which favors Higgins in this situation.
Fade – RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,300) At one point, Jackson was Iowa State’s RB1. That is a distant memory now as the EMU transfer played just 16% of the snaps last week with just a single carry. He’s out of the rotation.
Bargain Bin – TEs. It’s evident that the Iowa State coaching staff is done looking for a third receiver behind Higgins and Noel. Tight end usage was up against Cincinnati last week with Gabe Burkle and Stevo Klotz (what a name) combining for 105 receiving yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.
Pivot Play – RB Abu Sama ($3,500) Maybe the Abu Sama dream is not dead just yet for those that drafted him in CFF and dynasty leagues. Double-digit carries and 50+ rushing yards in three of the last five games for Sama. We’re tentative though to roster any running back facing Utah this season as the Utes have allowed just one running back to score more than 14 fantasy points all year. Sama > Carson Hansen.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($7,500) We like that the volume is up for the Iowa State in the passing game, averaging 39 pass attempts over the last four weeks. Becht has also scored 24 or more fantasy points in three of those four contests. We just don’t see the value here with Avery Johnson, for example, having a much higher projection at a lower cost. Utah is giving up just 16.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Micah Bernard ($6,200) By default choice here because…who else? Bernard was clearly hampered by injury last week, rushing for just 20 yards on 11 attempts, but was an integral part of the passing game with six receptions on eight targets. We’ve said this on multiple occasions now, but the high-level numbers for the Iowa Stat run defense are better than what the advanced metrics indicate, as the Cyclones are just 112th in rush D success rate and 91st in EPA per run play.
Fade – QB Isaac Wilson ($6,500) Wilson is a prime transfer candidate after this season and wouldn’t be surprised if he moved to his older brother’s former stomping grounds at BYU. Even though Wilson crushed his passing prop last week, you saw the struggles with the Utah passing game without key pieces like Brant Kuithe and multiple starting receivers. Iowa State is giving up just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and are 29th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,100) The former UCLA transfer did his best Brant Kuithe impersonation last week, playing 59% of the snaps, catching four passes for 78 yards on six targets. Tight end utilization for the Utes doesn’t change regardless of who the starter is.
Pivot Play – WR Dorian Singer ($4,500) Similar to Bernard, who else is left for Utah to catch passes with both Kuithe and Money Parks out for the year. Singer was tied for a team-high eight targets last Saturday, even catching a long touchdown over Travis Hunter. Singer is 14 targets away from a 100-target season in 2024, with the next closest available WR on the roster having just nine targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Zacharyus Williams ($3,000) or WR Munir McClain ($3,800) This duo started alongside Singer at receiver and combined for eight targets vs. Colorado, with each playing over 62% of the team’s snaps. Longshot dart throws.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -8.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: KSU 30.5 – Cin 22
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Tony Johnson ($3,500) Cincy has two really strong bargain bin plays this week, so we’ll split em up with Johnson as the top play with the higher projection. The former Florida Atlantic transfer has played 80% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games and has accounted for at least four receptions in five of the last six games. The Big 12 is littered with talented wide receivers, so this makes sense, but Kansas State has allowed five wideouts this season to score 22 or more fantasy points against them. Johnson might see high ownership because of this pricing, if you decide to go against popular opinion.
Fade – n/a. Everyone on Cincinnati is priced appropriately, though there isn’t one player that projects over expectation this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Joe Royer ($3,500) Down week last Saturday for Royer who had a season-low eight receiving yards against Iowa State. The former Ohio State transfer is still second on the team in receptions (42), targets (61) and touchdowns (3). The only hesitation here is why Royer only played 59% of the snaps against the Cyclones – also a season-low.
Pivot Play – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,500) Kansas State’s perceived weakness on defense is in the secondary, ranked 78th in pass D success rate and EPA per pass play. The Wildcats haven’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to QBs, but one notable observation stuck out here – dual threats have found success against this KSU defense. Sam Leavitt: 45 rushing yards. Jalon Daniels: 66 rushing yards and a TD. Zeon Chriss: 75 yards on 22 carries and a TD. Sorsby’s rushing usage is way up the last three games, including 141 yards and a score last week vs. Iowa State.
Best of the Rest – RB Corey Kiner ($5,000) Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last six games for Kiner who’s averaging nearly 20 rushing attempts in that span. Won’t break the bank with a $5k salary for such a high-floor option, but Kansas State is statistically the best run defense in the B12, ranking 3rd nationally in rush D success rate. WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,200) is probably a better investment in the prop market as opposed to in your DFS lineups with his line currently at 46.5 receiving yards. WR Jamoi Mayes ($3,100) is fourth on the team in receptions and targets, but too cheap for a player that doesn’t leave the field often, playing over 85% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($7,400) Cincinnati is a middle of the road pass defense, allowing around 231 yards per game through the air. The Bearcats are giving up 20.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but those same QBs are averaging 20% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing Cincinnati in 2024. Johnson projects well this week at a solid pricing.
Fade – The questionable WRs. See below in the injury section.
Bargain Bin – WR Tre Spivey ($3,000) and WR Dante Cephas ($3,000) We’ve ragged on Cephas plenty this year, but this duo came through in the clutch last week with the injuries to Jadon Jackson and Dante Cephas, as the two combined for eight receptions for 121 yards. You’ll have to do some injury monitoring pregame if interested in having either player in your lineup.
Pivot Play – RB DJ Giddens ($7,300) Really frustrating year for DJ Giddens’ owners as the junior running back is ninth in the country in rushing yards this season, but the only RB inside the top 10 with fewer than 11 rushing touchdowns. Cincinnati is 29th in rush D success rate and giving up just 22 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Double-digit fantasy points should be a lock for Giddens this week, but lacks upside as Kansas State has struggled to run the football with much consistency this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayce Brown ($4,200) Cincinnati has allowed some big performances this season to wide receivers, with five WR1s scoring 23 or more fantasy points against the Bearcats. With the injuries to his fellow starting WRs, Brown was targeted a season-high 11 times last week and leads KSU in all receiving categories with nearly double the amount of receiving yards as the next closest player on the roster.
Injury Notes – WR Keagan Johnson ($3,300) Johnson was a scratch last week, suffering an injury in pregame warmups. His production this season doesn’t warrant consideration if he’s questionable, but his availability does impact Tre Spivey and Dante Cephas as we indicated above. WR Jadon Jackson ($3,500) is also questionable after missing last week.
