All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 15 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.
Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)
Point-Spread: MOH -2.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: MOH 23.5 – Ohio 21
Weather: Dome
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB Parker Navarro ($8,500) Preferred on DK over FD because of salary, but don’t love either play personally because of the Miami (Ohio) defense that is equally stingy vs. the run and pass. Just two quarterbacks this season scored over 20 fantasy points against this RedHawks defense, though it is noticeable the types of QBs that succeeded against Miami (Ohio). Riley Leonard – 143 rushing yards and two scores. Tucker Gleason – 8 rushing yards and a TD. Taisun Phommachanh – 80 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Mike Wright – 65 yards and a TD. We know what Navarro can do with his legs.
Fade – RB Rickey Hunt ($4,200) Remember when Hunt rushed for five touchdowns in last year’s bowl game? Distant memory. Just nine attempts in the last three games and we’ll dig into why rostering any RB from Ohio is a treacherous endeavor below.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Hendricks ($4,300) Why are we mentioning a player that has a grand total of 12 receiving yards in the last two games? Well, that’s somewhat understandable when your offense only threw 30 passes combined in that stretch. Assuming Ohio needs to air it out a bit more as a 2.5-point dog, Hendricks becomes more viable.
Pivot Play – WR Coleman Owen ($7,100) Receivers have found some success against this secondary with four wideouts scoring at least 21 fantasy points. Two of which came from the MAC in Ball State’s Justin Bowick (31 fpts) and WR Jerjuan Newton (26 fpts). Owen is unlikely to have much ownership at $7.1k yet has slate-busting upside as we’ve seen this season, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in three games.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Tyus ($5,600) We side closer to a fade than a play for Tyus, going against a defense that ranks third in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and is allowing just a combined 18 fantasy points to opposing backfields this season. I feel like we need 20 points from Tyus to justify his salary. The issue is that not one running back accomplished that against MOH at any point this year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami, OH:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyon Mozee ($4,500) Apples to apples, I prefer Mozee over Louisiana’s Bill Davis, but the matchup is why folks will gravitate more to the Ragin Cajun. Ohio is 12th in rush D success rate and 7th nationally in EPA per run play which is, by far, tops in the MAC conference. 100+ rushing yards for Mozee in six of the last seven games and doesn’t have to fight for carries unlike Davis as the solidified RB1 for the RedHawks.
Fade – QB Brett Gabbert ($6,000) This number has much to do with the lack of talent remaining in the MAC conference these days because of the transfer portal, but Ohio gave up just 14.3 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season. Only one QB scored more than 20 fantasy points against Ohio this year, and that was Kyle McCord.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody playable under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – Stacking Multiple Miami (Ohio) receivers in same lineup. See below.
Best of the Rest – WRs. When all three starting receivers are healthy, Miami (Ohio) only throws that trio, comprising of Javon Tracy, Reggie Virgil and Cade McDonald. Against Bowling Green in the season finale, those three had all 28 of the targets from passes thrown that game. McDonald has the lowest projection but has been peppered with targets in the last three games he’s been fully healthy, including nine catches on 12 targets vs. BG. McDonald also scored 19 fantasy points in the previous matchup with Ohio.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: ASU -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ASU 26.5 – ISU 24
Weather: Dome
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($7,500) and / or WR Jaylin Noel ($6,500) For our long-time readers this season, you know the drill by now. Two 100-target receivers for Iowa State that are playable separately or as a stack, as the duo combines for 62% of the team’s target share and 15 of the 20 receiving touchdowns. Arizona State has allowed five wide receivers to score 21 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,400) Remember back in September when Jaylon Jackson emerged as Iowa State’s RB1? The Eastern Michigan transfer has failed to surpass 20 yards rushing since Week 6.
Bargain Bin – TE Gabe Burkle ($3,000) Burkle has played nearly 80% of the team’s snaps over the last five games with 19 of his 24 targets coming in that span. A WR3 beyond Higgins and Noel potentially has emerged with WR Carson Brown ($3,400) who’s been targeted 10 times in the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Hansen ($4,000) or RB Abu Sama ($3,500) Hansen and Sama have separated themselves from Jaylon Jackson but remains a split backfield between the two. So, if wanting to roster an Iowa State RB, we would strongly advise just one and not stacking. ASU’s strength on defense is defending the run, allowing just 21 combined fantasy points per contest to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($7,600) Interesting to see that Arizona State only allowed 14.9 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season because their pass defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 99th in success rate. Becht is a safe, but limited upside play, though we like his rushing trends of late, with a combined three rushing scores in the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($10,300) Top play of the slate and a spend-up candidate on both sites as Skattebo is likely to touch the ball 30+ times. We sound like a broken record at this point discussing the Iowa State run defense, but they’re not an imposing front seven, ranked 85th in rush D success rate and 14th of 16 Big 12 teams in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – RB Kyson Brown ($3,500) So long as he’s healthy, Skattebo is getting ALL the touches on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WRs. They’re all cheap, and all should be relevant now with Jordyn Tyson out for the season. I’m hesitant to say that Xavier Guillory is a shoo-in for the WR1 role because he’s played the most offensive snaps among the wideouts. For all the attention that Tyson received from defenses, Guillory and his fellow Arizona State counterparts did very little with their opportunities. Any one of Guillory, Melquan Stovall or former Texas transfer Troy Omerie are playable at cost.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,300) Warming up to the idea of considering Leavitt solo, but also with Cam Skattebo as a potential game stack. Not having Jordyn Tyson hurts considerably, but we know that Leavitt can run – although not so much as of late. The game I cannot get out of my head is the UCF / Iowa State matchup from earlier in the year where RJ Harvey and Jacurri Brown combined for nearly 350 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Does Arizona State take a similar approach?
Best of the Rest – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,100) All hands on deck for the other Arizona State pass-catchers having to replicate the production of their injured WR1. We know Metayer is on the field a lot, playing over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Metayer is second on the team in targets (41), touchdowns (5) and fourth in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Jordyn Tyson ($7,200) Out for the season.
Georgia vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Tex 25.5 – UGA 23
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) –
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 15 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.