Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Toledo vs. Kentucky
- Point-Spread: UK -11.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: UK 29.5 – Tol 18
- Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,300) The Toledo players are priced to highly here to warrant much interest in a game where they’re only projected to score two touchdowns. And the betting line continues to move in favor of Kentucky. Bad vibes. Rudolph is the cheapest realistic option on a team that funneled targets to its top two receivers a year ago. Rudolph should be a 1-for-1 replacement for Jerjuan Newton who has graduated.
Fade – QB Tucker Gleason ($6,500) Gleason finished as QB23 in college fantasy, averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. While not as athletic as his predecessor Dequan Finn, Gleason proved to be an effective runner, tallying 364 rushing yards and seven touchdowns – the fourth straight year a Toledo QB has accounted for seven or more rushing scores. His projection / salary is in that middle range that we’d rather spend up or go with a cheaper option, hence we’ll fade for this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Petersen ($3,900) Holy Cross transfer Jacob Petersen caught 35 passes and six scores last season so there may not be much of a drop off at the position with Anthony Torres graduated. The TE1 position has combined for 20 touchdowns in the last three seasons, so it is incorporated in the offense.
Pivot Play – RB Chip Trayanum ($6,900) Revenge game storyline with Trayanum facing his former school. He’ll be a dramatic improvement as the RB1 that has produced high-end fantasy running backs in the past like Bryant Koback and Peny Boone. We won’t have much exposure in this matchup but will be a staple in our lineups once Toledo gets into conference play.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Vandeross ($7,000) The Rockets also return last year’s second-leading receiver in Junior Vandeross who was more like a 1B, rather than a WR2 next to Jerjuan Newton, finishing with more receptions (85) and targets (124). The top two receivers dominated the team target share last season (53%), and we expect a similar distribution in 2025 between Vandeross and Rudolph.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Seth McGowan ($3,700) One of the top plays on the slate from a pricing / projection standpoint as the New Mexico State transfer is expected to be the starting running back for the Wildcats based on an On3 report. Kentucky appears poised once again to rely on a run-heavy, ball control offense, though a backfield timeshare is potentially in the cards.
Fade – QB Zach Calzada ($5,300) Kentucky quarterbacks are generally of no interest to us. Calzada comes over from Incarnate Word after throwing 35 touchdowns last season, while also adding 332 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. There’s a chance that Cutter Boley also sees playing time on Saturday which decreases our interest further.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($4,900) The Alabama transfer should function as the WR2 in the Kentucky offense, utilized in the role of Barion Brown, so expect him to start in the slot and be not only featured in the passing game, but any gadget plays will go in Law’s direction also.
Pivot Play – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,200) The Nebraska transfer was one of the most effective short-yardage backs in college football a year ago with 614 yards on the ground with 12 touchdowns. While he’ll likely be the RB2 on Saturday, there’s a good chance he’ll find the end-zone at least once with Kentucky rotating its top two backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($5,500) The former North Texas transfer is our projected WR1 for the Wildcats and really started to come on late last year with all four of his touchdowns coming in the month of November. Maclin posted a 121-yard, two score performance against Louisville in the finale. Sign of things to come?
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Tennessee
- Point-Spread: Tenn -14
- O/U Total: 51
- Implied Score: Tenn 32.5 – Syra 18.5
- Weather: Dome
Syracuse
Top Play(s) – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($5,700) Our projected top receiver for the Cuse in 2025 after ending the season with two 100-yard performances in the last three games, while also averaging 17.8 yards per catch. There’s plenty of vacated production left over from last season with two 900-yard receivers no longer on the roster. In four years as a play-caller at the collegiate level, OC Jeff Nixon has produced four 100-target receivers. Gill is our prediction to be next in line.
Fade – RB Yasin Willis ($6,100) We like the long-term outlook for Willis who should garner a significant portion of the workload that LeQuint Allen had a year ago…but not this week. Tennessee holds the edge in the trenches and we don’t like the prop number that came out for Willis this week, with opening lines at 37.5 rush yards. Don’t expect TE Dan Villari ($4,400) match the 100 targets vacated by Oronde Gadsden either – they are not the same player.
Bargain Bin – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($4,300) There’s over 200 vacated targets from last season, and we don’t expect as much tight end involvement as we saw last year with Gadsden. Meaning…we could see three fantasy-relevant receivers in this offense in 2025. JRS was predicted to be the WR1 by the Syracuse beat reporter who appeared on the Summer School podcast with Bud Elliott, fwiw.
Pivot Play – WR Johntay Cook ($5,400) Cook is supremely talented as a former 4-star Texas recruit, but is now at his third school in the last nine months. If there’s a coach that can reel in a player like Cook mentally, it should be Fran Brown. There’s a non-zero chance that Cook winds up as the team’s WR1 in 2025, starting in the slot where Trebor Pena played a year ago.
Best of the Rest – QB Steve Angeli ($6,000) The projection says fade the Notre Dame transfer this week, but could hit value based on volume, with Syracuse ranking in the top 10 last season in pass rate at nearly 60%.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,400) Dylan Sampson was a statistical anomaly for this system, accumulating 258 carries and 44% of the backfield volume share. In the six years prior to last, Heupel’s RB1 averages just 138 attempts per season. So, if rostering Bishop, go into Saturday knowing he’s unlikely to see 20 touches. But he’s the RB1 in what should be a really good running game for the Vols. Also, the Tennessee passing attack might be putrid this season, so expect Tennessee to lean into the ground game.
Fade – RB Star Thomas ($5,000) The Duke transfer was one of the most inefficient running backs in the country last season, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and 2.89 yards after contact. Thomas was relevant last year based on pure volume, getting 212 carries. He may not get half that this season as the Vol’s likely RB3.
Bargain Bin – TE Miles Kitselman ($4,800) The cheapest we’d go among any Tennessee players. The senior tight end has been bitten by the injury bug this offseason but is expected to play Saturday. Kitselman is showing up on NFL Draft watch lists and could serve as a steadying presence in the passing game with all the youth at receiver.
Pivot Play – RB Peyton Lewis ($5,000) In the previous six seasons prior to last with Dylan Sampson, the RB2 under Josh Heupel has averaged 672 yards and six touchdowns per season, at around 11 touches per game. That’s the expectation for Lewis this season as the primary backup to Bishop.
Best of the Rest – WRs The Vols’ WR room is high on recruiting pedigree, but short on depth and experience. Sophomore Mike Matthews and former Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell will be counted on to lead the group as the only receivers on the roster to catch more than three passes last season. QB Joey Aguilar ($6,400) brings nearly 7,000 career passing yards and 56 touchdowns to Knoxville. Solely because of the system, Aguilar is potentially viable, with Heupel’s QB1s averaging 26.5 FPPG over the last decade. The questions marks with the WR room, though, give us a lot of pause.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: OSU 25 – Tex 22.5
- Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
