Mississippi State vs. Southern Mississippi
- Point-Spread: MSU -12.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: MSU 37 – SMiss 24.5
- Weather: 77 degrees / 70% rain / 5 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Blake Shapen ($6,800) Shapen who played in just four games due to injury, but was efficient when on the field, completing 68% of his throws with eight touchdowns to just one interception, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in each start. Against Florida, we also saw a glimpse of Shapen’s running potential with 32 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts. Last season was an obvious low point, but Lebby has a strong history of producing elite fantasy quarterbacks, with the QB1 averaging 26.7 FPPG in the last eight years.
Fade – RB Fluff Bothwell ($5,900) Bothwell was an elite freshman at the G5 level last season at South Alabama, but he enters the year as the backup to RB Davon Booth ($5,800) and is $100 more expensive. He’ll get 10-12 touches on Saturday so we wouldn’t eliminate him from the queue, but Booth is the better play.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($4,900) Cheapest legitimate option on the Miss State side as the most established pass-catcher on the team with 34 receptions on 57 targets, but his touchdown equity (1) needs to improve to be a factor in college fantasy.
Pivot Play – WR Brenan Thompson ($5,200) No doubt that there’s another WR that is the top play for the Bulldogs. But don’t discount Thompson who is starting on the outside and has experience in Jeff Lebby’s system coming over from Oklahoma. Thompson also attended SEC Media Days which is a sign he’s an expected contributor in 2025.
Best of the Rest – WR Anthony Evans ($5,800) The focus this offseason was who would be starting in the profitable slot position in Lebby’s offensive scheme. The former Georgia transfer landed the starting role, and was named one of the top five breakout candidates for MSU by team beat writers. Slot receivers have thrived over the years under Lebby with the likes of Kevin Coleman, Drake Stoops and Elijah Moore.
Injury Notes – n/a
Southern Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – QB Braylon Braxton ($7,500) The only player we know for a fact has a starting job locked up with no depth chart produced by Southern Miss. Braxton finished as QB60 last season in college fantasy, but was exceptional in the month of November, averaging nearly 29 fantasy points per game. Though OC Blake Anderson is normally associated with high-powered passing attacks, he hasn’t hesitated to use his QB in the run game – just look at Justice Hansen who logged over 340 carries in three seasons with Arkansas State. Not a priority play but can’t eliminate him from the pool as a dual-threat option.
Fade – WR Elijah Metcalf ($5,700) We’re going cheap if rostering a Southern Miss receiver, so Metcalf is out for us. He does have the most experience amongst the group, coming over from Marshall as the starting slot receiver in 2024, but the entire Southern Miss WR room is essentially brand new. This could shake out several ways.
Bargain Bin – WR Bralon Brown ($3,000) Our projected WR1 for Southern Miss this season. Was a team captain in the spring game and produced 60 yards and a touchdown in that scrimmage. Brown was singled out by the beat writer for On3 as the receiver to watch this season.
Pivot Play – RB Robert Briggs ($4,200) over RB Jeffrey Pittman ($5,500) This room is too muddied to start either player realistically against an SEC opponent. Particularly when Braxton is going to figure into the rushing attack as well. We’re sticking with Pittman as RB1, but the Utah State transfer Briggs has experience in this system, coming over with Blake Anderson, and reportedly scored a 13-yard touchdown in a fall camp scrimmage.
Best of the Rest – TE Kyrin Heath ($3,900) The latest On3 article on Southern Miss also singled out Heath as a player to watch this season, with Braylon Braxton saying he has NFL potential at the TE position. Heath is a former P4 transfer coming over from Ole Miss.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland
- Point-Spread: MD -14.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: MD 38 – FAU 23.5
- Weather: 72 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – WR Easton Messer ($7,500) For those that followed theCFFSite all offseason, you know that I didn’t shut up about Messer’s fantasy outlook in the new system under head coach Zach Kittley. Remember this is the same system a few years ago that produced Bailey Zappe and Jerreth Sterns in the record-setting season at Western Kentucky. Messer is going to be a PPR monster in 2025 starting in the slot. Would prioritize him on DK rather than FD due to the scoring settings.
Fade – RBs. Kittley ran the ball a ton the last few seasons with Tahj Brooks at Texas Tech, but we feel he was influenced by the defensive-minded head coach. Kittley gets to run his own show now and will be a true Air Raid offense. No interest in the RBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Quincy Brown ($3,000) Brown has been around the Block, starting at TCU and most recently Texas State. No official depth chart from FAU, but offseason reporting suggests he’s secured one of the outside spots opposite WR JR Wilson ($4,500). With the extreme volume we expect from FAU in the passing game this season, there’s room for a few options outside of Messer to hold value. The Owls could legitimately throw 50 times on Saturday.
Pivot Play – QB Caden Veltkamp ($7,600) See last sentence above. Not the greatest matchup, but Veltkamp could hit value purely on volume alone. Veltkamp and Kittley go back a ways, as he recruited the QB to Western Kentucky coming out of high school. The fit should be seamless with a deep knowledge already of the system being implemented and Kittley has been quoted as saying he’s handing the reigns to Veltkamp this season. 40-50 passing attempts should be the expectation Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Asaad Waseem ($4,800) Longshot play, but Waseem has P4 experience, transferring over from Colorado, and is the secondary slot option to Messer. That’s been productive at times when this Air Raid is clicking. Malachi Corley averaged 13.2 FPPG in 2021 as the WR3 in this offensive scheme.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – RB Nolan Ray ($7,000) At running back, some view Roman Hemby’s transfer to Indiana as addition by subtraction, opening the door for Nolan Ray to take on a larger role. Ray outperformed Hemby last season in yards per carry, yards after contact and breakaway run rate. We’re not expecting much resistance against an FAU defense, and suspect Maryland will lean on the run game with a freshman starting at quarterback.
Fade – WR Kaleb Webb ($4,800) We’re really interested in just two receivers for Maryland (more on that below), so Webb is out of the conversation as the Tennessee transfer could be a backup come Saturday with some underclassmen shining in practices like Ryan Manning and Mekhai White.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryan Manning ($3,000) Similar sentiment to above with Webb – not all that interested in the WRs beyond the top two – but Manning might be the second starter on the outside. He had 100+ yards in the spring game.
Pivot Play – QB Malik Washington ($6,600) Strong projection of over 22 fantasy points for this salary, but we technically still don’t know who the starting QB will be. We assume it will be the true freshman, given he’s been the favorite all the way since spring ball as an early enrollee, but be prepared to pivot if we get a surprise on Saturday morning. Washington did miss some time during fall camp with injury.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The Terps have significant holes to fill in the receiving corps, having lost over 230 targets and 13 touchdowns with the graduation of CFF WR3 Tai Felton and Kaden Prather. Felton’s 96 receptions last season were a statistical anomaly for a WR1 under Locksley, with an average stat-line of 49-687-4 in the five years prior. Oklahoma transfer Jalil Farooq ($6,300) and slot receiver Octavian Smith Jr. ($5,800) are sure-fire starters, but after that it is a bit of a mystery. Maryland has quietly developed a reputation as a tight end pipeline, producing three top 25 CFF options in the last four years. The staff believes it upgraded with Georgia State transfer TE Dorian Fleming ($5,500) who had 49 receptions and six touchdowns last season.
Injury Notes – Keep an eye on the QB situation in pregame.
Northwestern vs. Tulane
- Point-Spread: Tul -5.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Tul 25.5 – NW 20
- Weather: 83 degrees / 80% rain / 7 mph winds
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – RB Joseph Himon ($3,800) Himon gets the nod from us as the team’s RB1 given the fact that he attended B1G Media days over Cam Porter and all the advanced analytics point to Himon simply being the better player of the two. RB1 production under OC Zach Lujan is typically good, with five 1,000-yard rushers in the last seven years, with over 230 rushing attempts in three of the last four. Neither Porter nor Himon will succeed if the Wildcats don’t fix the offensive line that ranked 128th in line yards last season. Six of last year’s top eight linemen do return, along with three transfers so there’ll at least be improved depth.
Fade – RB Cam Porter ($5,700) See above.
Bargain Bin – QB Preston Stone ($4,900) Tempting at this pricing given Stone is an experienced transfer that was once a top 30 fantasy quarterback during his days at SMU. He’s a significant improvement as a passer over the dumpster that Northwestern trotted out a year ago, and this is also a staff that gets the QB involved typically in the run game, averaging around 91 carries per season.
Pivot Play – WR Griffin Wilde ($5,200) Northwestern loses 174 targets and nearly 60% of last year’s receiving production, including wideouts A.J. Henning and Bryce Kirtz. This is traditionally a low volume passing offense, so fantasy value may be limited. If there’s a breakout candidate, it’s 6-foot-2 South Dakota State transfer Griffin Wilde, who had 1,154 yards and 12 touchdowns last season for the Jackrabbits.
Best of the Rest – n/a. It’s either Himon, Stone, Wilde or no one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – WR Omari Hayes ($4,600) The whispers coming from Tulane camp is that Hayes has emerged as the team’s top option and could rival the numbers of Mario Williams from a year ago. Williams finished with nearly 100 targets, over 1,000 yards receiving and averaged 14.3 FPPG. He’ll be in several lineups of mine.
Fade – RB Jamauri McClure ($6,000) Unless DK knows something we don’t, McClure landed on the fourth line at running back on the team depth chart. There’s a chance the redshirt freshman takes over the starting job at some point this year but not expecting that right out of the gates.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Miller ($3,100) Listed starter on the depth chart at a position that has a lot of vacated production with Alex Bauman transferring to Miami. The TE1 for Tulane last year had 20 receptions on 35 targets with seven receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – RB Maurice Turner ($5,000) All offseason the notion has been that Turner, a Louisville transfer, would be the team’s starter in Week 1. The depth chart shows as much. Tulane has four running backs that could see playing time this week, so we’re not jamming Turner into our lineups, but this has been a profitable position under offensive coordinator Joe Craddock, coaching the likes of Makhi Hughes and Kimani Vidal in the last three seasons.
Best of the Rest – QB Jake Retzlaff ($5,500) Ignore the depth chart here. The BYU transfer will start in Week 1 with fellow QB Brendan Sullivan dealing with an injury. This is a run-based offense, but last year’s starter Darian Mensah did score more than 20 fantasy points in seven games a year ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Tennessee
- Point-Spread: Tenn -14
- O/U Total: 51
- Implied Score: Tenn 32.5 – Syra 18.5
- Weather: Dome
Syracuse
Top Play(s) – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($5,700) Our projected top receiver for the Cuse in 2025 after ending the season with two 100-yard performances in the last three games, while also averaging 17.8 yards per catch. There’s plenty of vacated production left over from last season with two 900-yard receivers no longer on the roster. In four years as a play-caller at the collegiate level, OC Jeff Nixon has produced four 100-target receivers. Gill is our prediction to be next in line.
Fade – RB Yasin Willis ($6,100) We like the long-term outlook for Willis who should garner a significant portion of the workload that LeQuint Allen had a year ago…but not this week. Tennessee holds the edge in the trenches and we don’t like the prop number that came out for Willis this week, with opening lines at 37.5 rush yards. Don’t expect TE Dan Villari ($4,400) match the 100 targets vacated by Oronde Gadsden either – they are not the same player.
Bargain Bin – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($4,300) There’s over 200 vacated targets from last season, and we don’t expect as much tight end involvement as we saw last year with Gadsden. Meaning…we could see three fantasy-relevant receivers in this offense in 2025. JRS was predicted to be the WR1 by the Syracuse beat reporter who appeared on the Summer School podcast with Bud Elliott, fwiw.
Pivot Play – WR Johntay Cook ($5,400) Cook is supremely talented as a former 4-star Texas recruit, but is now at his third school in the last nine months. If there’s a coach that can reel in a player like Cook mentally, it should be Fran Brown. There’s a non-zero chance that Cook winds up as the team’s WR1 in 2025, starting in the slot where Trebor Pena played a year ago.
Best of the Rest – QB Steve Angeli ($6,000) The projection says fade the Notre Dame transfer this week, but could hit value based on volume, with Syracuse ranking in the top 10 last season in pass rate at nearly 60%.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,400) Dylan Sampson was a statistical anomaly for this system, accumulating 258 carries and 44% of the backfield volume share. In the six years prior to last, Heupel’s RB1 averages just 138 attempts per season. So, if rostering Bishop, go into Saturday knowing he’s unlikely to see 20 touches. But he’s the RB1 in what should be a really good running game for the Vols. Also, the Tennessee passing attack might be putrid this season, so expect Tennessee to lean into the ground game.
Fade – RB Star Thomas ($5,000) The Duke transfer was one of the most inefficient running backs in the country last season, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and 2.89 yards after contact. Thomas was relevant last year based on pure volume, getting 212 carries. He may not get half that this season as the Vol’s likely RB3.
Bargain Bin – TE Miles Kitselman ($4,800) The cheapest we’d go among any Tennessee players. The senior tight end has been bitten by the injury bug this offseason but is expected to play Saturday. Kitselman is showing up on NFL Draft watch lists and could serve as a steadying presence in the passing game with all the youth at receiver.
Pivot Play – RB Peyton Lewis ($5,000) In the previous six seasons prior to last with Dylan Sampson, the RB2 under Josh Heupel has averaged 672 yards and six touchdowns per season, at around 11 touches per game. That’s the expectation for Lewis this season as the primary backup to Bishop.
Best of the Rest – WRs The Vols’ WR room is high on recruiting pedigree, but short on depth and experience. Sophomore Mike Matthews and former Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell will be counted on to lead the group as the only receivers on the roster to catch more than three passes last season. QB Joey Aguilar ($6,400) brings nearly 7,000 career passing yards and 56 touchdowns to Knoxville. Solely because of the system, Aguilar is potentially viable, with Heupel’s QB1s averaging 26.5 FPPG over the last decade. The questions marks with the WR room, though, give us a lot of pause.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: OSU 25 – Tex 22.5
- Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($4,500) This will be a better game to watch, rather than for fantasy purposes. If selecting a Texas player, we’re rolling with the cheapest option in Moore Jr. The latest report from the 247Sports Texas site is that Moore and fellow starter WR Ryan Wingo ($6,500) are expected to dominate the target share in the passing game, particularly with Emmett Mosley being limited in practices.
Fade – RB CJ Baxter ($5,900) The Texas backfield is one of the most interesting position battles in the country, specifically after Steve Sarkisian came out and said he’ll be more aggressive with Baxter as he came out of fall camp at 100% health. Do we trust Sark is telling the truth? Bad matchup against the Ohio State front, plus Baxter is likely still second fiddle behind RB Tre Wisner ($7,100) mean we’ll bypass on him for this week. Add in another wrinkle that both RB Christian Clark ($3,000) and RB Jerrick Gibson ($3,300) are also likely to see carries, and this entire backfield might be a fade for this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Parker Livingstone ($3,300) The WR3 spot for Texas probably won’t be as involved as it was a year ago, but if it is, that was around 40 receptions, 65 targets and seven touchdowns in 16 games. Livingstone is the clear starter on the outside for the time being. Offseason reports state that Livingstone led Texas in receiving touchdowns through spring and fall camps.
Pivot Play – QB Arch Manning ($9,000) I’m sure many, including me, will be anxious to have Arch in our DFS lineups simply for his upside alone as the most recognizable name in CFB. The projection just doesn’t match the salary, and we’re better off going with cheaper options at the QB position.
Best of the Rest – TE Jack Endries ($5,400) Endries, a transfer from Cal, steps into a tight end-friendly system that has now produced three consecutive top 20 fantasy finishes at the position. He profiles similarly to last year’s starter, Gunnar Helm, offering Manning a reliable target in the middle of the field.
Injury Notes – WR Emmett Mosley (Limited)
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($9,000) Similar sentiment to Texas in that we won’t have a ton of exposure here on the Ohio State side, but tough not to roll with the best receiver in college football as the top option. Ohio State better have a plan in place, though, to find ways to get Smith the ball, because this Texas secondary stifled him in the playoff matchup last year with just one reception on three targets.
Fade – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,600) Too pricey for who should be Ohio State’s RB2 this season, and would rather just spend up $200 for starter RB James Peoples ($6,800). The debate here is will either player hold much value in 2025? Last year, neither TreVeyon Henderson nor Quinshon Judkins cracked the top 50 running backs in CFF, and Peoples and Donaldson don’t match that level of talent.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,900) There’s no clear and obvious third option behind Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate entering the year. One possibility is Purdue transfer Max Klare becoming the de facto WR3, as he lined up more in the slot rather than in-line during the spring game. Tight end production is erratic under Ryan Day, but Klare has the skillset to be an outlier
Pivot Play – WR Carnell Tate ($6,800) With all of attention of the Texas secondary geared towards Smith in the playoff matchup, Tate was the beneficiary, leading the team with seven receptions on nine targets. We come into the year believing the targets will be funneled through Tate and Smith. WR3 Brandon Innis ($4,900) could be a value if he emerges as a legit third option. The WR3 for the Buckeyes has scored at least four touchdowns in six of the last eight seasons.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Sayin ($7,700) The redshirt freshman passed the eye test in the spring game, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown. The arm talent is there, but Sayin profiles closer to a Kyle McCord or an inexperienced version of CJ Stroud in that he won’t offer much as a runner, so any fantasy value will come strictly through the air. Reports coming out of fall camp, true or not, as that Sayin didn’t separate himself by much over backup Lincoln Keinholz.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ball State vs. Purdue
- Point-Spread: Purd -17.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: Purd 33.5 – Ball St 16
- Weather: 67 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Ball State:
Top Play(s) – RB Qua Ashley ($4,800) The Kennesaw State transfer popped some last year, including a 79-yard performance against Middle Tennessee and 52 yards against Liberty. Running back production under new head coach Mike Uremovich has been inconsistent, with only two 1,000-yard rushers over the last nine seasons, but this will be a run-heavy attack in the first year of his tenure. Not a priority play.
Fade – QB Kiael Kelly ($5,700) We’re looking for a bit more upside out of our QB position on a main slate than Kelly who has gone from quarterback to wide receiver and now back to quarterback for his final season in college. The one saving grace if you do decide to roster Kelly is his rushing ability, which will be featured in the new offensive scheme, as the QB1 under Uremovich has surpassed 100 carries in each of the last three years with 19 rushing touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – RB Elijah Jackson ($3,300) No depth chart for Ball State, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Jackson starts over Ashley. Jackson has the stronger pedigree coming over from a P4 school, and a redemption game of sorts as that P4 school was…Purdue.
Pivot Play – WR Eric Weatherly ($5,000) Risky to roster any Ball State receiver as Kelly has not shown in his career to be a competent thrower of the football. Weatherly, a Bucknell transfer, caught 73 passes and eight touchdowns last season. Of the five touchdowns caught in the spring showcase, two went to Weatherly.
Best of the Rest – WR Ty Robinson ($4,800) Robinson has not been healthy in two seasons, but has been very productive on the field when available. That includes last season with 44 yards and a TD vs. Western Michigan. In 2023, Robinson was targeted seven times against both Kentucky and Georgia. He can be a difference maker.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,300) Somehow, Mockobee sits ninth on Purdue’s all-time leading rushing list in program history. Impressive for a former walk-on, but clearly not many great running backs have come through West Lafayette over the years. Regardless, Mockobee seems to have RB1 duties on lockdown based on fall camp reporting and has one of the higher prop listings on the slate at 85.5 yards.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,300) The most trustworthy matchup preview found for this game suggests that the Virginia Tech transfer may not even be RB2 behind Mockobee. Better values around this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Jackson III ($3,000) The USC transfer has reportedly emerged as the team’s top WR option with a strong fall camp. None of the seven transfers Purdue brought in have much production at the collegiate level, including Jackson, so we’re hesitant to roster anyone in the group, but you’re considering a possible WR1 at $3k 100% of the time.
Pivot Play – QB Ryan Browne ($5,200) There’s a lot of question marks surrounding this passing game and offense in general. Browne transferred back to Purdue this offseason after a brief stint at North Carolina and won the job over Malachi Singleton. What we care about most is Browne is a capable runner, as shown last year in his 118-yard performance against Illinois in October. So, we have a dual threat in a good matchup, and cheap? Hmm.
Best of the Rest – WR Chauncey Magwood ($3,000) or WR Nitro Tuggle ($4,700) Expected starters to join Michael Jackson III in the starting lineup. Max one Purdue receiver to a lineup.
Injury Notes – TE George Burhenn (Questionable)
Toledo vs. Kentucky
- Point-Spread: UK -11.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: UK 29.5 – Tol 18
- Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,300) The Toledo players are priced to highly here to warrant much interest in a game where they’re only projected to score two touchdowns. And the betting line continues to move in favor of Kentucky. Bad vibes. Rudolph is the cheapest realistic option on a team that funneled targets to its top two receivers a year ago. Rudolph should be a 1-for-1 replacement for Jerjuan Newton who has graduated.
Fade – QB Tucker Gleason ($6,500) Gleason finished as QB23 in college fantasy, averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. While not as athletic as his predecessor Dequan Finn, Gleason proved to be an effective runner, tallying 364 rushing yards and seven touchdowns – the fourth straight year a Toledo QB has accounted for seven or more rushing scores. His projection / salary is in that middle range that we’d rather spend up or go with a cheaper option, hence we’ll fade for this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Petersen ($3,900) Holy Cross transfer Jacob Petersen caught 35 passes and six scores last season so there may not be much of a drop off at the position with Anthony Torres graduated. The TE1 position has combined for 20 touchdowns in the last three seasons, so it is incorporated in the offense.
Pivot Play – RB Chip Trayanum ($6,900) Revenge game storyline with Trayanum facing his former school. He’ll be a dramatic improvement as the RB1 that has produced high-end fantasy running backs in the past like Bryant Koback and Peny Boone. We won’t have much exposure in this matchup but will be a staple in our lineups once Toledo gets into conference play.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Vandeross ($7,000) The Rockets also return last year’s second-leading receiver in Junior Vandeross who was more like a 1B, rather than a WR2 next to Jerjuan Newton, finishing with more receptions (85) and targets (124). The top two receivers dominated the team target share last season (53%), and we expect a similar distribution in 2025 between Vandeross and Rudolph.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Seth McGowan ($3,700) One of the top plays on the slate from a pricing / projection standpoint as the New Mexico State transfer is expected to be the starting running back for the Wildcats based on an On3 report. Kentucky appears poised once again to rely on a run-heavy, ball control offense, though a backfield timeshare is potentially in the cards.
Fade – QB Zach Calzada ($5,300) Kentucky quarterbacks are generally of no interest to us. Calzada comes over from Incarnate Word after throwing 35 touchdowns last season, while also adding 332 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. There’s a chance that Cutter Boley also sees playing time on Saturday which decreases our interest further.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($4,900) The Alabama transfer should function as the WR2 in the Kentucky offense, utilized in the role of Barion Brown, so expect him to start in the slot and be not only featured in the passing game, but any gadget plays will go in Law’s direction also.
Pivot Play – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,200) The Nebraska transfer was one of the most effective short-yardage backs in college football a year ago with 614 yards on the ground with 12 touchdowns. While he’ll likely be the RB2 on Saturday, there’s a good chance he’ll find the end-zone at least once with Kentucky rotating its top two backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($5,500) The former North Texas transfer is our projected WR1 for the Wildcats and really started to come on late last year with all four of his touchdowns coming in the month of November. Maclin posted a 121-yard, two score performance against Louisville in the finale. Sign of things to come?
Injury Notes – n/a
Old Dominion vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: IU -23.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: IU 39 – ODU 15.5
- Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Old Dominion:
No official depth chart from ODU means we’re out on rostering anyone in our DFS lineups this week. Here’s our Old Dominion preview from the guide for reference for the rest of the season:
The final record does not reflect it, especially after losing three of the final four games, but Old Dominion made notable offensive strides in 2024, improving their scoring output to 28 PPG and averaged around 50 more yards of offense per game. The enthusiasm heading into 2025 is squarely centered around budding star quarterback Colton Joseph who was a top five fantasy quarterback from Week 7 onward, averaging over 35 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, fantasy managers were burned in championship week due to the lack of reporting as Joseph was a surprise scratch in Week 14. Joseph did throw 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions, but his fantasy appeal comes via his legs, rushing for 60 or more yards in every start. Assuming Joseph starts all 12 games, he’s got legitimate QB1 upside in CFF if the rushing usage continues.
There aren’t any household names at the wide receiver position for Joseph to throw to, but one commonality amongst the group – they’re tall. Five of the seven wideouts on the roster all stand 6-foot-2 or taller. The shortest of the group, sophomore TJ Lott, is the projected starter in the slot, inheriting the 97 vacant targets left by Isiah Paige. No additions were made in the transfer portal to the running back room, so this is likely Devin Roche’s job to lose. He left a lasting impression in the season finale with 85 yards on seven attempts. With 66% of the offensive line snaps returning and a unit that ranked 26th in line yards, the run game could become a team strength.
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Fernando Mendoza ($8,200) Now entering his fourth straight season with a new starting quarterback, Curt Cignetti has developed a reputation as a QB whisperer. He’ll hand the reins in 2025 to California transfer Fernando Mendoza, a more mobile option than last year’s starter Kurtis Rourke (QB36) and is already drawing first-round NFL Draft buzz according to some media outlets. Fair to say that Mendoza will be the most talented quarterback Cignetti has ever coached.
Fade – WR Makai Jackson ($4,600) Indiana’s WR room is just as talented this year as it was in 2024. Jackson showed flashes at App State, but he’s like WR5 with the Hoosiers. Better, cheaper options at WR on the slate, and on his own team.
Bargain Bin – WR E.J. Williams ($3,000) Been a tumultuous career for the former Clemson transfer who almost shipped out again in the offseason. But sounds as though Williams will be the WR3 in this offense – a role that has accounted for at least four touchdowns in each of the last three years under Cignetti.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,500) or RB Kaelon Black ($6,200) The backfield is likely to be a committee once again in 2025, but this was a group that rushed for 37 combined touchdowns last season. Hemby will be the starter, and has experience in the B1G, while Black has been with this staff since James Madison. Those are the top two.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijah Sarratt ($7,100) or WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,500) WR1 Elijah Sarratt is one of the highest floor players in college fantasy for 2025 with nearly 200 combined targets and 16 touchdowns over the last two seasons under Cignetti. He’ll retain his role as the leading wideout, and the depth is solid behind him with Cooper who was second on the team with seven receiving touchdowns. Wouldn’t double-stack the WR room, but I’d want exposure to at least one in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nevada vs. Penn State
- Point-Spread: PSU -42.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: PSU 49.5 – Nev 7
- Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Nevada:
Lowest projected team total on the slate and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Nevada get shut out on Saturday. Hard pass here. Below is the write-up from our CFF Guide on what to expect from the Wolfpack in 2025.
Projecting the Nevada offense in 2025 is a difficult task where you have a defensive minded head coach in Jeff Choate, paired with a first-year coordinator in David Gilbertson who has not called plays at the FBS level. For those reasons alone, it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach to determine if any Nevada options emerge as viable CFF contributors during the regular season. Not to mention this is almost an entirely new core on offense that ranks 126th in returning production, losing its starting quarterback, top rusher and two leading receivers. What we do know from quotes during the spring is that this will be a run-first offense with a vertical passing element. Makes sense with a solo-threat quarterback like Chubba Purdy taking over the starting job. Choate even suggested that if Purdy had been healthy last year, he might have started over Brendon Lewis, who finished as QB22 in CFF. Nevada’s top three running backs from last season are no longer on the roster, so the RB1 job is up for grabs with Utah State transfer Herschel Turner being the frontrunner. As a freshman, Turner averaged over five yards per attempt with the Aggies. The receiver room is being rebuilt, with 118 receptions vacated by the departures of Jaden Smith and Cortez Braham, who accounted for more than half of the team’s targets. Former UTEP transfer Marcus Bellon was exceptional as the team’s third option with an 87% catch rate on 45 targets, but given questions around Purdy’s passing abilities, it’s hard to feel confident in any Nevada wideout for fantasy purposes.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – QB Drew Allar ($8,900) A sentence I never thought I’d type – Allar is the top play for Penn State. The senior quarterback had another efficient season, completing 66% of his throws with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions across 16 games. Against inferior G5 competition last year (two games), Allar combined for 56 fantasy points, five passing touchdowns and a rushing TD in both contests. With an improved WR room overall, Allar should have better numbers in 2025.
Fade – TE Luke Reynolds ($6,700) They’re pricing Reynolds like he’s Tyler Warren, and he’s not…yet. Warren had 138 targets last season. The highest target total from a TE1 in the four years prior to that was just 56. With added depth at receiver, Reynolds is likely not worth $6.7k.
Bargain Bin – RB Quinton Martin ($3,200) Looking back at last year’s bludgeoning of Kent State, Penn State’s RB3 rushed the ball nine times for 39 yards and a touchdown. In 2023, PSU’s RB3 had 59 yards on seven carries. Martin will get his chances in the second half.
Pivot Play – RB Nick Singleton ($8,800) or RB Kaytron Allen ($7,600) Expectations are even higher this season, thanks to the large number of returning pieces. That starts with the most surprising decision(s) with both Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen opting to return after combining for over 2,200 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. While Allen received the majority of carries, Singleton was the better fantasy option of the two, due in large part to his expanded role in the passing game, catching 41 passes on 53 targets. The expectation again is that this will be a 55-45 split; a strategy aimed at keeping both backs fresh for another potential playoff run.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Transfers Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC) should see an uptick in production with all-world tight end Tyler Warren no longer around. But also worth noting that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has not produced a top 100 college fantasy wideout in the past six seasons. Low upside, low floor plays.
Injury Notes – n/a
Marshall vs. Georgia
- Point-Spread: UGA -38.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: UGA 47 – Marsh 8.5
- Weather: 78 degrees / 38% rain / 5 mph winds
Marshall:
Just one player projected over double-digit fantasy points for Marshall in what should be a lopsided affair. Here’s out writeup from the CFF guide from what to expect in 2025.
Stepping in is first-year head coach Tony Gibson, a longtime defensive coordinator with previous stops at West Virginia and NC State. As a defensive-mind coach, the more important addition to us is offensive coordinator Rod Smith, who arrives after three years at Jacksonville State. A product of the Rich Rodriguez coaching tree, we have a general sense as to what Marshall will run offensively in 2025. Expect a ground-heavy attack, first and foremost, running the ball around 63% of the time. Unfortunately, the projected depth charts at both quarterback and running back are littered with former P4 transfers that make it incredibly difficult to pinpoint any CFF options. Carlos Del Rio Wilson (Syracuse) was the first quarterback on the field in the spring game and threw for 113 yards through the air with another 21 yards on the ground. His comparison is closer to that of a Zion Webb than Tyler Huff if projecting for 2025. Historically, Smith’s system doesn’t feature a true bell-cow running back – Tre Stewart being the exception last year – with the RB1 averaging just 141 carries per season. Transfers Justin Williams-Thomas (California), Tony Mathis Jr. (Houston) and Joshon Barbie (McNeese State) will all be in the mix. As for the wide receiver position, there’s little reason to look there for CFF value. No wideout in a Rod Smith offense has cracked the top 100 at the position since 2015.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,500) Predicting the Georgia offense is as painful as going to the dentist. When you think one thing is going to happen, it’s usually the opposite. Looking back to last year, Georgia typically uses these mismatches to get the passing game going. Four passing touchdowns vs. UMass. Five passing touchdowns against Tennessee Tech. With a new starter in Stockton, plus better weapons at receiver, look for Stockton to have a big day throwing the ball against an inferior opponent.
Fade – WR Dillon Bell ($5,300) Drops plagued Bell last season in a disappointing year and now looks to be the WR4 with the reinforcements that UGA brought in at receiver.
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Thomas ($4,300) The Texas A&M transfer should start at one of the outside spots or be a rotational piece with Dillon Bell at the very least, so might as well take the salary savings. Thomas is a big-bodied option at 6-foot-5, 205 pounds that led Texas A&M in touchdowns (8) and targets (72) last season.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Frazier ($7,700) Clear-cut RB1 for Georgia entering this year but likely doesn’t see the workload that is worth the cost with all of the injuries the UGA suffered a year ago at the RB position. Expect a 55 / 45 split between Frazier and RB Josh McCray ($6,700).
Best of the Rest – WR Colbie Young ($5,600) or WR Zachariah Branch ($6,900) The reporting this entire offseason has been centered around the WR improvements, and the group being significantly better than year’s past. While that may be the case, you absolutely do not have to pair Stockton with any UGA receiver. Last season’s top target, Arian Smith, finished as WR135 in college fantasy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Temple vs. Massachusetts
- Point-Spread: Tem -2.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Tem 27.5 – UMass 25.5
- Weather: 71 degrees / 5% rain / 9 mph winds
Temple:
Top Play(s) – RB Jay Ducker ($6,000) Ducker followed new head coach KC Keeler over from Sam Houston and was an absolute workhorse in the spring game with 21 rushing attempts and four receptions. Could be a sign of his workload moving forward? Keeler commented on the offense in the spring, stating “we have to run the football, that’s who we’ll be.”
Fade – QB Evan Simon ($4,600) Normally we might consider a starting QB facing UMass at $4.6k. The issue is that we might see Evan Simon and Oregon State transfer Gevani McCoy as it doesn’t appear a true starter has been decided.
Bargain Bin – TE Ryder Kusch ($3,800) Kusch was atop the practice reports all through spring ball and was a standout in the final scrimmage of camp with 55 yards on four receptions. The freshman is expected to be an immediate contributor.
Pivot Play – RB Terrez Worthy ($3,800) Temple’s new offensive coordinator is Tyler Walker, who comes over after a one-year stint as the OC with Montana State. Why is that important? Well, in that one year, he helped produce not one, but two 1,000-yard rushers as Montana State ran the ball 68% of the time. Ducker will be the RB1 but would imagine Worthy getting some run as the secondary option.
Best of the Rest – WRs If Temple runs it 68% of the time as we alluded to above, then the best course of action is roster nobody here. Probably the wisest move too as we’re unsure of the pecking order between projected starters JoJo Bermudez, Kajiya Hollowayne and Colin Chase. Chase has the most experience of the three as an FCS transfer, finishing last season with 633 yards and six touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Massachusetts:
Top Play(s) – Rocko Griffin ($5,500) Mike Bajakian, who spent four years as Northwestern’s OC between 2020-23, and most recently as an assistant with Utah this past season, was hired as the new offensive coordinator for the Minutemen. The position that has yielded the best results under Bajakian at the collegiate level has undoubtedly been running back, overseeing the likes of AJ Dillon and Evan Hull who each produced top 30 fantasy seasons. Former Vanderbilt and UTSA transfer Rocko Griffin is the projected RB1 and will be the most valuable component of the UMass offense.
Fade – Everyone else.
Alabama vs. Florida State
- Point-Spread: Bama -14.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Bama 32.5 – FSU 18
- Weather: 81 degrees / 79% rain / 5 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan Williams ($9,100) If spending up at receiver this week…Ryan Williams >>> Jeremiah Smith. The clear WR1 in an offense that should produce better passing numbers now that Jalen Milroe is off to the NFL. Last season was just the second time in nine years that Kalen DeBoer’s WR1 did not hit 100 targets in a season. Williams will get 100 targets this year.
Fade – TE Josh Cuevas ($4,400) Passing game will be centered around the top three receivers, and maybe even a fourth receiver in Rico Scott. Don’t expect tight ends to see much involvement in the passing game this year.
Bargain Bin – RB Daniel Hill ($4,000) We know that Jam Miller will not play in this game after suffering an injury in fall camp. RB Richard Young ($5,800) is likely to get the first carry on Saturday, but there’s likely going to be a rotation of backs to fill in for Miller’s absence. We do know that Hill is a favorite of OC Ryan Grubb, stating that the sophomore back has “stuck out as much as anyone this spring” back in April.
Pivot Play – QB Ty Simpson ($8,000) Simpson was the favorite coming out of the spring to win the QB1 job and secured the role with a strong fall camp. Tough to see Simpson failing with the trio of receivers at his disposal and we know there will be an uptick in passing volume now that he’s the starter. DeBoer has a strong reputation for QB development, with each of his QB1s averaging over 26 FPPG in the last five seasons. Solid play at his price in GPP and cash games.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Horton ($6,600) and WR Germie Bernard ($6,200) We’ve seen several times where DeBoer’s offensive system has supported two or even three fantasy-relevant wide receivers – remember Washington with Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk? Bernard has the experience, already serving as the WR2 last season, but Horton grabbed the offseason headlines in practices after transferring over from Miami. Would not stack Alabama receivers this week, but either would be a strong pivot from Ryan Williams if you went that way.
Injury Notes – RB Jam Miller (OUT)
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,200) Not sure I’d want to be Castellanos heading into the matchup with how much trash talk he was doing in the summer about Alabama leading up to this contest. But he’s the best option we got here, as a dual threat in an offensive system under Gus Malzahn that loves to utilize his quarterback in the run game. While last year’s KJ Jefferson experiment flopped with UCF, four of Malzahn’s last five QBs have averaged at least 21 fantasy points per game.
Fade – RBs. (1) Can Florida State run on Alabama? (2) Who is going to get the lion’s share of the carries? Malzahn prefers a workhorse as we saw last year with RJ Harvey but might take a few weeks to get there. We’re going to see all of Roydell Williams, Gavin Sawchuk and stud freshman Ousmane Kromah get some run on Saturday. Likely with minimal success too.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,500) UCF transfer tight end Randy Pittman follows Malzahn to Tallahassee and is a multi-dimensional player ala Jaheim Bell a few years ago. Pittman was targeted 51 times a year ago with UCF for 416 yards and two scores.
Pivot Play – WR Duce Robinson ($5,200) Both our projection and Castellanos’ prop markets have him throwing fewer than 200 yards on Saturday, so we’re not giddy about rostering any FSU receivers. Robinson is the clear WR1, though, and fits the mold of Johnny Wilson architype as a bigger-bodied receiver that thrived at FSU under head coach Mike Norvell.
Best of the Rest – WR Squirrel White ($4,300) or WR Jayvan Boggs ($3,800) Reading up on FSU material, there seems to be confidence in the top three receivers, which features Robinson, White and the true freshman Boggs. Outside of that, a lot of unproven depth that has dealt with mounting injuries in fall camp. Probably don’t see a lot of rotation at receiver in Week 1 with the starters garnering most of the snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Seth McGowan, Kentucky
- QB Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
- RB Nolan Ray, Maryland
- QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Kewan Lacy, Mississippi
- QB Jayden Maiava, USC
- RB Jordan Marshall, Michigan
- WR Anthony Evans, Mississippi State
