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Kansas State vs. Arizona
- Point-Spread: KSU -1.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: KSU 28 – Ari 26.5
- Weather: 91 degrees / 4% rain / 11 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayce Brown ($6,600) Second-best receiver on the slate behind Sarratt that I’d try to fit in most lineups. Team leader in targets (29) and receptions (19), and Brown’s value is boosted now with WR2 Jerand Bradley out for a few weeks due to injury. Kansas State’s inability to run the football effectively has forced the Wildcats to throw more than usual, resulting in boosted production for the receivers.
Fade – RB Joe Jackson ($4,000) Kansas State needs Dylan Edwards back in the worst say. The Wildcats are 108th in rush success rate, and Jackson seems on the verge of losing his starting gig to other options.
Bargain Bin – WR Adonis Moise ($3,000) Moise was the Jerand Bradley replacement in Week 2 following the injury, playing 51% of the snaps with two targets vs. Army. TE Garrett Oakley ($4,500) likely sees an enhanced role in the passing game down a starting receiver. Oakley is fourth in targets (10).
Pivot Play – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,900) I don’t hate the idea of stacking Brown and Tibbs together in the same lineup or playing Tibbs solo. The Purdue transfer was the team’s most effective receiver against Army with 5-61-1 on six targets and isn’t far behind Jayce Brown in most receiving categories. Kansas State is averaging about four more pass attempts per game than they did in 2024.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($7,600) The pass defense has been excellent for Arizona, ranked 6th in success rate and giving up just 4.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. A conference matchup on the road for a struggling team doesn’t feel like a spot you’d want to roster Johnson as your QB, but this offense is forced to rely on him with no semblance of a running game right now.
Injury Notes – RB Dylan Edwards (probable), WR Jerand Bradley (out)
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – RB Quincy Craig ($3,500) Kedrick Reescano’s health status will be one of the big storylines to monitor for the slate. HC Brent Brennan didn’t have an update as of 9/8 and haven’t seen anything after that. RB Ismail Mahdi ($4,800) still has the higher projection for us, but strictly because we’ve seen what he can do at the collegiate level, rushing for over 2,200 yards the last two seasons at Texas State. But against Weber State, it was actually Craig that got the start and has nearly double the amount of rushing yards than Mahdi for the season. The Wildcats are 94th in rush yards allowed per game defensively, but that stat is a tad misleading. Each of K-State’s first three opponents averaged less than four yards a carry.
Fade – WR Kris Hutson ($6,100) Hutson did start in Week 2 vs. Weber State but played just 12 offensive snaps and caught two passes. It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever to spend up for an Arizona receiver if the staff is playing 9-10 (yes that many) receivers each week.
Bargain Bin – See Top Play above.
Pivot Play – WR Javin Whatley ($5,000) or WR Chris Hunter ($5,100) I have no shame in admitting I don’t have a clue what to do with Arizona receivers. 11 different receivers saw playing time against Weber State. So, in that situation we tend to lean on recency bias, and what you did for me lately. After barely playing in Week 1, Hunter was on the field for 70% of snaps in Week 2, finishing with a couple or receptions. Whatley had the breakout with 168 yards and two scores on five receptions.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($7,100) Fifita is probably the fifth option behind the top group at QB, but he’s literally the one Arizona player on offense that we know is going to have the ball in his hands. We cannot say the same about any other offensive position. Fifita has taken to the new offensive system, throwing for 534 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games played. Meanwhile, K-State’s defense is giving up 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in three games.
Injury Notes – RB Kedrick Reescano (questionable), TE Keyan Burnett (questionable)
New Mexico vs. UCLA
- Point-Spread: UCLA -16.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: UCLA 35 – NM 18.5
- Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – TE Dorian Thomas ($5,700) The former Arizona transfer has double the number of targets (20) and receptions (15) as the next closest Lobo pass-catcher. And we’ve seen Thomas get it done against P4 competition already, hauling in 10 passes on 13 targets and two touchdowns vs. Michigan in the opener. There shouldn’t be any hesitation to roster Thomas just because this is against a P4 defense.
Fade – QB Jack Layne ($5,000) There’s four options at QB on the slate – Iamaleava, Angeli, Mendoza and Johnson. Layne is a non-runner with just a 12-point projection this week. The matchup isn’t the worst, though, as UCLA has allowed 29 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through two games. He’s a distant option compared to that top group of QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Buckley ($3,900) or WR Zhaiel Smith ($3,000) Not much production to speak of when it comes to these two players – seven combined receptions on 16 targets. But they’re on the field a bunch, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps. Smith is eliminated from contention if Keagan Johnson is available.
Pivot Play – RB Scottre Humphrey ($6,400) It’s clear that Humphrey will be the focal point of the New Mexico offense in 2025 (along with Thomas), as he rushed for 141 yards and two scores on 18 attempts vs. Idaho State last week. UCLA’s run defense has been leaky in the early going too, ranked 128th in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Keagan Johnson ($6,200) The projected WR1 from Kansas State has dealt with multiple injuries of late, missing portions of fall camp and then did not play in the second half against Idaho State due to an injury. We’ll be watching his status in pregame.
Injury Notes – WR Keagan Johnson (Out)
UCLA:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
