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Charlotte vs. South Florida
- Point-Spread: USF -27.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: USF 31 – Char 13.5
- Weather: 81 degrees / 54% rain / 12 mph winds
Charlotte:
The Charlotte running back room is an absolute disaster and you’re not playing a quarterback in Grayson Loftis that is a non-runner on a team with the lowest implied total on the slate. That leaves just the Charlotte receivers as options, and Loftis is a functional enough passer to warrant some consideration for the wideouts. Against Rice in Week 4, the trio of WRs Javen Nicholas ($5,300), E.Jai Mason ($5,100) and Miles Burris ($3,700) combined for 24 targets. Nicholas, a former LSU transfer, has been the most consistent of the three, scoring nearly 60 fantasy points over the last three games. Mason had the monster performance three weeks ago with 47 fantasy points against Monmouth. All three are supplemental options for your lineups.
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($8,700) Hands down the top QB option on the slate. Lock it in. Charlotte is allowing around 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. QB1s are also scoring 59% above their seasonal average when facing Charlotte this season.
Fade – RB Alvon Isaac ($4,400) Isaac is the team’s second-leading rusher behind Byrum Brown, and is averaging 6.7 YPC for the season, but failed to make an impact against South Carolina State in Week 4, rushing for just 17 yards. Meanwhile, his backfield counterparts Cartevious Norton and Sam Franklin combined for 139 yards on just eight carries. It makes sense to spend down in a four-way committee and roster the cheaper options.
Bargain Bin – RB Cartevious Norton ($3,600) or RB Sam Franklin ($3,500) USF will score on Charlotte and is a double-digit favorite, so having some exposure to one running back makes sense. Franklin is an Oklahoma transfer that made his first real impact of the season, rushing for 91 yards and two scores last week. He’s a former 1,300-yard rusher back at Tennessee-Martin.
Pivot Play – WR Christian Neptune ($3,000) Neptune had just nine receiving yards in Week 4 but was targeted four times while starting in the slot. He’s played over 60% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games. In competitive matchups against Florida and Miami the two weeks prior, Neptune combined for 19 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Chas Nimrod ($6,100) or WR Keshaun Singleton ($5,500) Singleton has fallen back a little as the season’s gone along, now third behind Nimrod and Neptune in targets. That said, the duo of Nimrod and Singleton have combined now for nearly 50% of the team’s receiving production with four of USF’s seven receiving touchdowns. I wouldn’t stack the duo together this week but would prioritize having at least one in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. San Jose State
- Point-Spread: SJSU -2.5
- O/U Total: 58.5
- Implied Score: SJSU 30.5 – NM 28
- Weather: 66 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – WR Keagan Johnson ($5,700) Johnson was targeted nine times in the opener against Michigan and then suffered an injury in Week 2 that has kept him out the last two weeks. Against New Mexico State, it was the passing game that was clicking for the Lobos, with Johnson catching five passes for 117 yards and a score. So, in two full games played, Johnson has been targeted 15 times. He’s the clear WR1 for the Lobos.
Fade – RB Damon Bankston ($4,600) Good player and a former 1,000-yard rusher with Weber State last season. But his 154-yard performance against UCLA in Week 3 came when starter Scottre Humphrey was knocked out of the game with an injury. Against New Mexico State, Bankston was relegated to just nine attempts, third most behind Humphrey and D.J. McKinney. Fiscally just doesn’t make sense.
Bargain Bin – WR Shawn Miller ($3,100) or RB DJ McKinney ($3,300) Miller is New Mexico’s WR2 and third option in the passing game, playing nearly 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last two games. Had a season-high 80 receiving yards against NMSU last Saturday. McKinney was second in rushing attempts (11) last week, coming off his best performance against UCLA in Week 3 with 89 yards and a TD. As a converted receiver, McKinney is a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Layne ($7,500) Tough one to forecast here with Layne. New Mexico is a run-based offense normally but took to the air last week against New Mexico State with the ground game being limited, as Layne threw for 300+ with four touchdowns. San Jose State took a similar route defensively last week, stacking the box against Stanford, allowing the Doctor Ben Gulbranson to throw for 400+ yards. Do the Spartans deploy the same strategy to limit the New Mexico run game?
Best of the Rest – TE Dorian Thomas ($6,000) San Jose State has struggled with tight ends this season, allowing 14.7 FPPG to the position. Jack Endries caught two touchdowns against the Spartans, while Stanford’s Sam Roush also found the end-zone last week. Thomas is still a factor in the New Mexico passing game, ranked first in every receiving category. RB Scottre Humphrey ($6,300) could decide who wins the slate. Does San Jose State stack the box, as they did against Stanford, limiting Micah Ford to just 12 yards on seven attempts? Or do we see the version of Humphrey that ran for 141 and two scores against Idaho State? New Mexico State hasn’t been overly effective running the football in 2025, ranked 89th in success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
