Charlotte vs. South Florida
- Point-Spread: USF -27.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: USF 31 – Char 13.5
- Weather: 81 degrees / 54% rain / 12 mph winds
Charlotte:
The Charlotte running back room is an absolute disaster and you’re not playing a quarterback in Grayson Loftis that is a non-runner on a team with the lowest implied total on the slate. That leaves just the Charlotte receivers as options, and Loftis is a functional enough passer to warrant some consideration for the wideouts. Against Rice in Week 4, the trio of WRs Javen Nicholas ($5,300), E.Jai Mason ($5,100) and Miles Burris ($3,700) combined for 24 targets. Nicholas, a former LSU transfer, has been the most consistent of the three, scoring nearly 60 fantasy points over the last three games. Mason had the monster performance three weeks ago with 47 fantasy points against Monmouth. All three are supplemental options for your lineups.
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($8,700) Hands down the top QB option on the slate. Lock it in. Charlotte is allowing around 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. QB1s are also scoring 59% above their seasonal average when facing Charlotte this season.
Fade – RB Alvon Isaac ($4,400) Isaac is the team’s second-leading rusher behind Byrum Brown, and is averaging 6.7 YPC for the season, but failed to make an impact against South Carolina State in Week 4, rushing for just 17 yards. Meanwhile, his backfield counterparts Cartevious Norton and Sam Franklin combined for 139 yards on just eight carries. It makes sense to spend down in a four-way committee and roster the cheaper options.
Bargain Bin – RB Cartevious Norton ($3,600) or RB Sam Franklin ($3,500) USF will score on Charlotte and is a double-digit favorite, so having some exposure to one running back makes sense. Franklin is an Oklahoma transfer that made his first real impact of the season, rushing for 91 yards and two scores last week. He’s a former 1,300-yard rusher back at Tennessee-Martin.
Pivot Play – WR Christian Neptune ($3,000) Neptune had just nine receiving yards in Week 4 but was targeted four times while starting in the slot. He’s played over 60% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games. In competitive matchups against Florida and Miami the two weeks prior, Neptune combined for 19 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Chas Nimrod ($6,100) or WR Keshaun Singleton ($5,500) Singleton has fallen back a little as the season’s gone along, now third behind Nimrod and Neptune in targets. That said, the duo of Nimrod and Singleton have combined now for nearly 50% of the team’s receiving production with four of USF’s seven receiving touchdowns. I wouldn’t stack the duo together this week but would prioritize having at least one in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. San Jose State
- Point-Spread: SJSU -2.5
- O/U Total: 58.5
- Implied Score: SJSU 30.5 – NM 28
- Weather: 66 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – WR Keagan Johnson ($5,700) Johnson was targeted nine times in the opener against Michigan and then suffered an injury in Week 2 that has kept him out the last two weeks. Against New Mexico State, it was the passing game that was clicking for the Lobos, with Johnson catching five passes for 117 yards and a score. So, in two full games played, Johnson has been targeted 15 times. He’s the clear WR1 for the Lobos.
Fade – RB Damon Bankston ($4,600) Good player and a former 1,000-yard rusher with Weber State last season. But his 154-yard performance against UCLA in Week 3 came when starter Scottre Humphrey was knocked out of the game with an injury. Against New Mexico State, Bankston was relegated to just nine attempts, third most behind Humphrey and D.J. McKinney. Fiscally just doesn’t make sense.
Bargain Bin – WR Shawn Miller ($3,100) or RB DJ McKinney ($3,300) Miller is New Mexico’s WR2 and third option in the passing game, playing nearly 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last two games. Had a season-high 80 receiving yards against NMSU last Saturday. McKinney was second in rushing attempts (11) last week, coming off his best performance against UCLA in Week 3 with 89 yards and a TD. As a converted receiver, McKinney is a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Layne ($7,500) Tough one to forecast here with Layne. New Mexico is a run-based offense normally but took to the air last week against New Mexico State with the ground game being limited, as Layne threw for 300+ with four touchdowns. San Jose State took a similar route defensively last week, stacking the box against Stanford, allowing the Doctor Ben Gulbranson to throw for 400+ yards. Do the Spartans deploy the same strategy to limit the New Mexico run game?
Best of the Rest – TE Dorian Thomas ($6,000) San Jose State has struggled with tight ends this season, allowing 14.7 FPPG to the position. Jack Endries caught two touchdowns against the Spartans, while Stanford’s Sam Roush also found the end-zone last week. Thomas is still a factor in the New Mexico passing game, ranked first in every receiving category. RB Scottre Humphrey ($6,300) could decide who wins the slate. Does San Jose State stack the box, as they did against Stanford, limiting Micah Ford to just 12 yards on seven attempts? Or do we see the version of Humphrey that ran for 141 and two scores against Idaho State? New Mexico State hasn’t been overly effective running the football in 2025, ranked 89th in success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Danny Scudero ($7,200) Our highest projected WR in all of college football this weekend – no need to overthink it.
Fade – QB Walker Eget ($8,300) Not an outright fade, but don’t get mesmerized by the 484-yard, three-touchdown performance last week against Stanford. Eget struggled at times in his first three outings to start the year, is a non-factor in the run game and has just a 19-point projection at $8.3k. New Mexico is allowing just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks to begin the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyri Shoels ($4,700) Twice in the last three games now Shoels has caught nine passes on 11 targets. All the talk in the offseason about Leland Smith and Matthew Coleman, and it is now Shoels that is second on the team in targets (29), receptions (23) and yards (275). Scudero and Shoels are playable together in a lineup, and you don’t have to stack with Eget either.
Pivot Play – WR Leland Smith ($6,700) Smith doesn’t make much sense at this pricing, but he’s still a big-play threat (15.7 YPC) in a high-volume passing offense. Smith ranks first on the team in routes run, playing over 93% of the offensive snaps in all four games this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Jackson Canaan ($3,900) Canaan saw a season-high nine targets in the loss to Stanford last week. He’s the fourth option in the passing game, as San Jose State isn’t rotating at all at receiver. RB Floyd Chalk IV ($5,900) must find the end-zone to hit value because he doesn’t get many carries, which isn’t attractive at all as a fantasy option, though maybe his reps increase slightly with Jabari Bates now out for the season. San Jose State is tied at 134th in the country in rush rate.
Injury Notes – RB Jabari Bates (out)
West Virginia vs. BYU
- Point-Spread: BYU -18.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: BYU 33 – WVU 14.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 44% rain / 5 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Vaughn ($5,200) Vaughn is the lone option to consider for West Virginia in the passing game, accounting for 30% of the team’s receiving production and two of the three touchdowns this year. The Mountaineers have very few proven commodities on offense, but he’s one of them.
Pivot Play – QB Khalil Wilkins ($4,500) Nicco Marchiol is shut down for the season due to injury and likely transferring out after this year. Jaylen Henderson was also announced out this week due to injury, leaving the reins to redshirt freshman Khalil Wilkins who will get the start on Friday. Wilkins started the second half against Utah last week, and provided a spark to the offense, rushing for 39 yards on nine attempts while also throwing a touchdown pass. BYU is only allowing 11.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so Wilkins is still a longshot option, but he’s a dual threat at min salary.
Best of the Rest – RBs. We’ll have to monitor this one pregame, though it may not even be worth monitoring given that BYU has the No. 2 rush defense in the Big 12. RB Tye Edwards ($5,400) has not played the last two games following his three-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh in Week 3. He’s listed as probable and was in uniform last week despite not playing. Does Edwards retain his starting gig as the RB1 or give way to RB Diore Hubbard ($3,000) who ran for 61 yards and a touchdown vs. Utah. We’ll be paying close attention on Friday.
Injury Notes – RB Jahiem White (out), QB Nicco Marchiol (out), QB Jaylen Henderson (out), WR Jaden Bray (out), WR Oran Singleton (out)
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($7,200) It makes sense to spend up for LJ Martin and Lucky Sutton on this particular slate and figure it out elsewhere. The West Virginia run defense has been abysmal against offenses with a pulse, allowing exactly 242 yards on the ground in each of the last two games to Kansas and Utah.
Fade – WR Parker Kingston ($5,900) BYU is 100th in pass play percentage this season, and that probably doesn’t improve drastically (or at all) as a near three-touchdown favorite. Kingston has caught five passes in each of the last two games, but there just better / cheaper options at the position with the South Florida tandem or Keagan Johnson.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($4,000) or WR Cody Hagen ($3,400) Ryan has been extremely efficient this season, converting on 12 of his 14 targets, with 36 or more receiving yards in every game this season. Hagen is the nominal WR3 but doesn’t have much production to show for it. His playing time has increased with JoJo Phillips out of the lineup. Would anticipate another run-heavy approach from BYU on Friday, so we’re not extremely interested in BYU pass-catchers.
Pivot Play – QB Bear Bachmeier ($7,900) Bachmeier can be played with or without LJ Martin, particularly if he’s going to run the ball like he did a week ago against Colorado with 97 yards on 17 attempts. That was also the first game this season where the freshman QB did not find the end-zone with his legs. West Virginia is giving up 26 FPPG this season to quarterbacks, which is the most of any defense on this slate.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Roberts ($6,500) BYU’s undisputed WR1 with 234 receiving yards on 26 targets and half (3) of the team’s receiving touchdowns. After a quiet opener, Roberts is heating up with five receptions in each of his last three games.
Injury Notes – WR JoJo Phillips (out), RB Sione Moa (out)
Colorado State vs. San Diego State
- Point-Spread: SDSU -5.5
- O/U Total: 40.5
- Implied Score: SDSU 23 – CSU 17.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tommy Maher ($5,600) First thoughts when looking at this game is I don’t get paid enough to analyze this game. Remember the days when a San Diego State vs. Colorado State matchup would be fun? The Air Raid offenses for CSU with Tory Horton or Preston Williams vs. a topflight running game for SDSU with the likes of Donnel Pumphrey or Ronnie Hillman. Those days are gone. Maher has been the team’s most consistent offensive player in the last two games, combining for nine receptions on 13 targets.
Fade – QB Jackson Brousseau ($6,800) You’re not playing a quarterback on the 131st ranked scoring offense on a four or five-game slate. That said, we’ll be paying attention to how Brousseau performs Friday to see if he’ll be a possibility down the road on another slate. Brousseau stepped into the starting lineup last week and threw for 188 yards vs. Washington State, while adding 52 yards on the ground. ***The most notable news to come out this week for CSU is that pass game coordinator Matt Mumme (Air Raid disciple) will now be calling the plays. Do we see CSU be more pass happy?
Bargain Bin – TE Rocky Beers ($3,200) First team All-name team tight end Rocky Beers has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps the last two games with Jaxxon Warren out due to injury. He was a non-factor vs. Washington State in Week 5 but did have 4-38-1 against UTSA in Week 4.
Pivot Play – WR Armani Winfield ($3,800) Winfield was a popular play last week with a similar salary but ruined those lineups with just one reception on three targets. We can’t dismiss the two weeks prior, though, converting on all 10 of his combined targets in Week’s 2 and 4, while seeing over 70% of the offensive snaps played. Similar to Maher, maybe there’s a boost with the CSU receivers this week with a different play-caller.
Best of the Rest – RBs. The CSU backfield is reminiscent of what we saw back in the Nevada days under Jay Norvell. RB1 Jalen Dupree averaging around 13 carries a game, with RB2 Lloyd Avant spelling him for 8-10 touches. Aka…no bell cow. San Diego State is allowing a combined 12.3 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and are 21st overall in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Injury Notes – TE Jaxxon Warren (out)
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lucky Sutton ($6,800) There’s more WR options on the slate versus RB options, so Sutton gets top billing for the Aztecs. The matchup is fine – Colorado State is 11th in the Mountain West in yards allowed per game on the ground, but 52nd in rush D success rate, so it’s not necessarily a pushover either. Sutton has a strong projection of 90 rush yards in the matchup and sports books are listing him close to 100 yards on the ground.
Fade – RB Christian Washington ($4,900) Too pricy for a backup running back in a low scoring game. QB Jayden Denegal ($7,000) is a fade too at this salary, as Colorado State is only allowing 15.5 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks. There’s a reason Denegal was a fourth stringer at Michigan.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacob Bostick ($3,900) or WR Donovan Brown ($4,200) Definitely would not have more than one San Diego State receiver in a lineup with a projection of just 156 yards for Jayden Denegal, but we’re starting to see separation among the top three Aztec wideouts. Bostick, an Iowa and Texas A&M transfer, and Brown have each played over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps in every game this season. Brown, a Syracuse transfer, caught five passes on seven targets in the win over Northern Illinois last week.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Napier ($6,200) Nothing overly impressive about 6-52-0 against Northern Illinois, but Napier has now led the team in targets in the last three games with a combined 29 targets in that span. That volume can lead to productive weeks, specifically in PPR formats (DK).
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky vs. Delaware
- Point-Spread: Del -3
- O/U Total: 62
- Implied Score: Del 32.5 – WKU 29.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Maverick McIvor ($9,800) There isn’t a viable fantasy option this season for Western Kentucky outside of the quarterback position in McIvor who ranks 5th in the country in passing yards and sixth in attempts per game. McIvor makes some sense on FD given his pricing as a second QB to pair with either Brown or Minicucci. Delaware is allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season which is right in line with McIvor’s projection.
Fade – RB Marvis Parrish ($6,500) WKU running backs aren’t normally options anyways because of the volume at which the Hilltoppers throw the ball, but Parrish looks to be on the verge of losing his starting spot with the emergence of RB La’Vell Wright ($8,600) who now has four rushing TDs in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Noah Meyers ($6,500) Meyers has been featured heavily the last two weeks specifically with 149 receiving yards and a touchdown on 11 combined targets. Meyers saw his most extended action of the season in Week 5 vs. Missouri State. Through four games, Delaware is allowing 12.9 FPPG to the tight end position.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Western Kentucky doesn’t have “a guy” at receiver this year, so you can spread your exposure around to multiple options or play Maverick McIvor solo if you so choose. Moussa Barry leads the team in targets (30) but accounts for just 16% of the total target share. Matthew Henry and KD Hutchinson are tied for the team lead in touchdowns (3) and should be considered the best of the bunch.
Injury Notes – n/a
Delaware:
Top Play(s) – QB Nick Minicucci ($11,200) Minicucci continues to deliver each week since taking over the full-time starting role this season, this time with his arm more than legs, throwing for 218 yards and three scores in the win over FIU in Week 4. That’s now 27 or more fantasy points in three of four games. I don’t think it’s possible to get a winning lineup with both Byrum Brown and Minicucci on the same roster, so you’ll have to choose between the two.
Fade – WR Nick LaBoy ($7,600) No reason that LaBoy should be priced ahead of some of the other Delaware receivers. He did catch two touchdowns in Week 4 vs. FIU, but that came with the game already in hand, while also being a distant fourth among Delaware receivers, playing just 45% of snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Sean Wilson ($6,800) Wilson is a viable option if Jake Thaw is in the lineup but is in line to be the top play for Delaware if Thaw does not suit up. With Thaw out of the lineup the last two weeks, Wilson’s seen an uptick in production, targeted seven times in each of the last two games with a combined 138 receiving yards. His playing time didn’t deviate much in Week’s 1 and 2 when Thaw was in the lineup, so Wilson is playable regardless.
Pivot Play – RB Jo’Nathan Silver ($9,500) Nathan’s scored three touchdowns in the last two games, including a breakout performance against UConn in Week 3 with 179 yards and two scores. Nathan is now averaging over seven yards a carry for the season, facing a WKU defense that is second to last in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyre Duplessis ($8,400) Team leader in targets (30), receptions (20) and yards (306) which is also good for first in all of Conference USA. Duplessis’ best performances have come against Delaware’s two most competitive matchups of the season against Delaware State and Connecticut.
Injury Notes – WR Jake Thaw (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Byrum Brown, USF
- WR Danny Scudero, San Jose State
- RB LJ Martin, BYU
- RB Lucky Sutton, San Diego State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Danny Scudero, San Jose State
- WR Keagan Johnson, New Mexico
- One of QB Byrum Brown or QB Nick Minicucci
- RB LJ Martin, BYU
