Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
Kansas State vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -6.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: Bay 34 – KSU 27.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($7,600) Someone got the message loud and clear, either the coaching staff or Johnson, that he needs to use his legs A LOT more for Kansas State to be successful on offense. That happened against UCF with a season-high 78 rushing yards on 13 attempts. I suspect that will continue to happen with Kansas State needing to rattle off some wins here for their season not to be further derailed. Baylor is allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and Johnson will have a healthy set of WRs to throw to on Saturday.
Fade – Backup WRs. Outside of Tibbs last week, no Kansas State wideout played more than 45% of the team’s snaps or had more than 20 receiving yards. The Wildcats went to more two tight end sets.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($3,400) Aside from the disaster that was the Army matchup, Oakley has been targeted at least four times in four of the five games played this season. His usage goes up as the secondary option behind Tibbs if Jayce Brown does not play.
Pivot Play – WR Jaron Tibbs ($3,900) Tibbs isn’t as enticing of a play now that WR Jayce Brown ($7,600) and WR Jerand Bradley ($3,700) are expected back in the lineup, but Tibbs has been productive this season with or without those two in the lineup. The Purdue transfer caught eight passes on 10 targets last week vs. UCF, and also scored double-digit fantasy points in two of the first three games this season when Brown was also in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Dylan Edwards ($7,500) That was the Dylan Edwards we expected at the start of the year, as he rushed for 166 yards on 20 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown run. Baylor is 13th among 16 teams in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground, and 97th in rush D success rate. Stacking Avery Johnson and Edwards together in a lineup is a GPP option – risky given the K-State offense has not been consistent but could pay off as the offense revolves around those two individuals.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Bryson Washington ($8,200) Dave Aranda updated Washington’s status early in the week after leaving the contest vs. Oklahoma State, stating “Bryson was with us today, going through all the things … He’s a bellcow when he’s out there doing his thing.” Sounds to me like he’s going to be full-go. Advanced stats paint a better picture of the K-State run defense, as the Wildcats are 46th in rush D success rate. High-level numbers have the Wildcats 14th among 16 teams in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – TE Michael Trigg ($6,800) Yes, Trigg is second on the team with four touchdowns, and yes, three of which have come in the last two games alone. But this salary is what the likes of Tyler Warren and Brock Bowers were listed as back in the day. Trigg isn’t that, especially with four legitimate WR options for Baylor to throw to.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Prentice ($3,700) The Alabama transfer needs more playing time. Prentice has scored a touchdown in four of his five games played, including a 73-yarder this past week against Oklahoma State. Baylor is down one rotational receiver, boosting the projections for all involved.
Pivot Play – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($5,200) From a price per projection standpoint, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for Hawkins given that both Kobe Prentice and Kole Wilson have been more productive and are cheaper. And this is not to say that Prentice and Wilson are bad options either. But Hawkins gets a boost this week with the news that Louis Brown IV will be sitting out the remainder of the season and redshirting. That leaves just Hawkins and Josh Cameron as WR options on the outside. Hawkins will have very little ownership at his salary and is a great GPP longshot option.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($9,300) Highest QB projection on the slate, though the Kansas State pass defense hasn’t been the issue this year. Just 186 yards per game given up through the air and 21.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. In argument for Robertson, Kansas State hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet of passing offenses either, with the likes of Iowa State, UCF and Army.
Injury Notes – WR Louis Brown (out – redshirting), RB Bryson Washington (questionable)
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -1.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Cin 27 – ISU 25.5
- Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Sowell ($3,200) Look who is back from the dead. If you’re not still distraught from his Week 0 goose egg, Sowell is easily the top play for the Cyclones this week at this salary after his 146-yard performance against Arizona last Saturday. HC Matt Campbell spoke to the media on Monday and stated that Sowell was the team’s best receiver in fall camp but had an injury setback that limited him early in the year.
Fade – RB Abu Sama III ($4,400) Sama does get volume in competitive matchups this season with 12 carries in three games vs. P4 opponents. The problem is that Sama is averaging just three yards per carry in those three matchups. Cincinnati is only allowing a combined 20 fantasy points per game to the RB position so far this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,300) Could go with one of the Iowa State tight ends, but neither has been as impactful as they were in the first few weeks. The Cyclones are still primary playing in 12 personnel so just two WRs are on the field most of the time, meaning Eskildsen is the only option beyond Chase Sowell. Eskildsen has been targeted at least four times in all P4 matchups this season.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($6,100) 22 or more fantasy points for Becht in four of five games this season and gets a matchup this week with the 14th ranked pass defense in the B12 in terms of yards allowed. Becht’s value goes up this season as a whole if Chase Sowell’s emergence is a thing.
Best of the Rest – RB Carson Hansen ($6,500) Hansen has put together two solid weeks back-to-back, rushing for 100+ against Arkansas State, followed by 63 yards and two scores in the win over Arizona. The issue with the Arizona performance is that we see Hansen’s lack of explosiveness, with a long rush of just nine yards with a 3.3 YPC average. Cincinnati is as good as Arizona at defending the run too. Hansen’s projection does see a slight uptick because of his recent usage in the passing game with seven catches in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($6,800) Another quarterback that is heating up this season as a result of a developing rapport with his transfer receivers with more experience playing together. I thought this passing game was cooked after Week 1, but Sorsby has now averaging 325 yards per game over the last three weeks, while being his normal self in the run game. Iowa State has been adequate in the secondary, but it was announced on Monday one of the Cyclones starting cornerbacks is now out for the season due to injury.
Fade – n/a – Some players to lean against like Evan Pryor, or possibly Joe Royer who left last week’s matchup against Kansas with a lower-body injury but is expected to play. Still, both players are cheap enough to warrant some consideration if desperate.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Goodie ($3,600) Allen has been the most productive Cincy receiver, but Goodie is on the field most of the starters, ranked second in targets (19), receptions (13) and yards (247). WR Jeff Caldwell ($3,500) has the same number of targets as Goodie, but not nearly as productive.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,700) Allen had a season-best 11 receptions for 128 yards and two scores on 13 targets in the win over Kansas and now has five scores in his last three games. It was in the last few weeks of fall camp that Allen was trending towards WR1 status for the Bearcats, and that’s all but cemented now.
Best of the Rest – RB Tawee Walker ($5,600) Mini breakout last week for Walker with 73 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 18 rushing attempts. Has he separated from Evan Pryor as the clear RB1 moving forward? Iowa State is average against the run, ranking 51st in success rate, but only giving up around 11 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Ismail Mahdi would’ve hit 100 yards rushing, though, against the Cyclones last week had that game remained competitive. He was averaging seven yards a pop.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. North Carolina
- Point-Spread: Clem -13.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – UNC 16
- Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Adam Randall ($6,600) The transition to running back has made Adam Randall some money, now coming off a season-best 130-yard performance in the loss to Syracuse in Week 4. Somehow, Randall’s receiving numbers are better as a running back than they were at receiver too – on pace to surpass the number of receptions (39) he’s had over the last two years combined. North Carolina is a below average ACC run defense, ranking 11th in yards allowed per game on the ground and 124th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – WR Antonio Williams ($7,800) Williams was targeted nine times in his return to the field in Week 4, but every Clemson receiver had a high number of targets when the team threw the ball 60 times. Williams doesn’t make much sense here as the highest-priced Clemson wideout when they’ll spread the ball around equally to multiple receivers.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($3,300) As expected, Brown did see a diminished role with Antonio Williams back in the lineup but did convert on all three of his targets vs. Syracuse. Think of Tyler Brown as an extension of the tight end position, because Clemson doesn’t have a Jake Briningstool on the roster. Low upside, low floor play.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,000) Clemson has not lived up to the preseason hype and Klubnik is no longer a Heisman contender, nor living up to his preseason status as the projected QB1 in college fantasy football. This is still too cheap of a salary for a quarterback projected at 24 fantasy points, with the high ceiling / high floor capabilities that he provides. North Carolina is a middle of the road pass defense overall in the ACC but allowed nearly a 150.0 QB rating to both TCU and UCF this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryant Wesco ($7,300) or WR TJ Moore ($6,300) Would probably reserve myself to one Clemson receiver per lineup as we don’t suspect the Tigers will need to throw the ball 40+ times this week against a hapless North Carolina offense as multiple-touchdown favorites. Wesco has been the team’s WR1 in the first month of the season, though we saw a breakout (finally) from Moore in Week 4, catching eight passes for 92 yards on a team-high 16 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
