Kansas State vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -6.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: Bay 34 – KSU 27.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($7,600) Someone got the message loud and clear, either the coaching staff or Johnson, that he needs to use his legs A LOT more for Kansas State to be successful on offense. That happened against UCF with a season-high 78 rushing yards on 13 attempts. I suspect that will continue to happen with Kansas State needing to rattle off some wins here for their season not to be further derailed. Baylor is allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and Johnson will have a healthy set of WRs to throw to on Saturday.
Fade – Backup WRs. Outside of Tibbs last week, no Kansas State wideout played more than 45% of the team’s snaps or had more than 20 receiving yards. The Wildcats went to more two tight end sets.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($3,400) Aside from the disaster that was the Army matchup, Oakley has been targeted at least four times in four of the five games played this season. His usage goes up as the secondary option behind Tibbs if Jayce Brown does not play.
Pivot Play – WR Jaron Tibbs ($3,900) Tibbs isn’t as enticing of a play now that WR Jayce Brown ($7,600) and WR Jerand Bradley ($3,700) are expected back in the lineup, but Tibbs has been productive this season with or without those two in the lineup. The Purdue transfer caught eight passes on 10 targets last week vs. UCF, and also scored double-digit fantasy points in two of the first three games this season when Brown was also in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Dylan Edwards ($7,500) That was the Dylan Edwards we expected at the start of the year, as he rushed for 166 yards on 20 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown run. Baylor is 13th among 16 teams in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground, and 97th in rush D success rate. Stacking Avery Johnson and Edwards together in a lineup is a GPP option – risky given the K-State offense has not been consistent but could pay off as the offense revolves around those two individuals.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Bryson Washington ($8,200) Dave Aranda updated Washington’s status early in the week after leaving the contest vs. Oklahoma State, stating “Bryson was with us today, going through all the things … He’s a bellcow when he’s out there doing his thing.” Sounds to me like he’s going to be full-go. Advanced stats paint a better picture of the K-State run defense, as the Wildcats are 46th in rush D success rate. High-level numbers have the Wildcats 14th among 16 teams in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – TE Michael Trigg ($6,800) Yes, Trigg is second on the team with four touchdowns, and yes, three of which have come in the last two games alone. But this salary is what the likes of Tyler Warren and Brock Bowers were listed as back in the day. Trigg isn’t that, especially with four legitimate WR options for Baylor to throw to.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Prentice ($3,700) The Alabama transfer needs more playing time. Prentice has scored a touchdown in four of his five games played, including a 73-yarder this past week against Oklahoma State. Baylor is down one rotational receiver, boosting the projections for all involved.
Pivot Play – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($5,200) From a price per projection standpoint, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for Hawkins given that both Kobe Prentice and Kole Wilson have been more productive and are cheaper. And this is not to say that Prentice and Wilson are bad options either. But Hawkins gets a boost this week with the news that Louis Brown IV will be sitting out the remainder of the season and redshirting. That leaves just Hawkins and Josh Cameron as WR options on the outside. Hawkins will have very little ownership at his salary and is a great GPP longshot option.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($9,300) Highest QB projection on the slate, though the Kansas State pass defense hasn’t been the issue this year. Just 186 yards per game given up through the air and 21.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. In argument for Robertson, Kansas State hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet of passing offenses either, with the likes of Iowa State, UCF and Army.
Injury Notes – WR Louis Brown (out – redshirting), RB Bryson Washington (questionable)
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -1.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Cin 27 – ISU 25.5
- Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Sowell ($3,200) Look who is back from the dead. If you’re not still distraught from his Week 0 goose egg, Sowell is easily the top play for the Cyclones this week at this salary after his 146-yard performance against Arizona last Saturday. HC Matt Campbell spoke to the media on Monday and stated that Sowell was the team’s best receiver in fall camp but had an injury setback that limited him early in the year.
Fade – RB Abu Sama III ($4,400) Sama does get volume in competitive matchups this season with 12 carries in three games vs. P4 opponents. The problem is that Sama is averaging just three yards per carry in those three matchups. Cincinnati is only allowing a combined 20 fantasy points per game to the RB position so far this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,300) Could go with one of the Iowa State tight ends, but neither has been as impactful as they were in the first few weeks. The Cyclones are still primary playing in 12 personnel so just two WRs are on the field most of the time, meaning Eskildsen is the only option beyond Chase Sowell. Eskildsen has been targeted at least four times in all P4 matchups this season.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($6,100) 22 or more fantasy points for Becht in four of five games this season and gets a matchup this week with the 14th ranked pass defense in the B12 in terms of yards allowed. Becht’s value goes up this season as a whole if Chase Sowell’s emergence is a thing.
Best of the Rest – RB Carson Hansen ($6,500) Hansen has put together two solid weeks back-to-back, rushing for 100+ against Arkansas State, followed by 63 yards and two scores in the win over Arizona. The issue with the Arizona performance is that we see Hansen’s lack of explosiveness, with a long rush of just nine yards with a 3.3 YPC average. Cincinnati is as good as Arizona at defending the run too. Hansen’s projection does see a slight uptick because of his recent usage in the passing game with seven catches in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($6,800) Another quarterback that is heating up this season as a result of a developing rapport with his transfer receivers with more experience playing together. I thought this passing game was cooked after Week 1, but Sorsby has now averaging 325 yards per game over the last three weeks, while being his normal self in the run game. Iowa State has been adequate in the secondary, but it was announced on Monday one of the Cyclones starting cornerbacks is now out for the season due to injury.
Fade – n/a – Some players to lean against like Evan Pryor, or possibly Joe Royer who left last week’s matchup against Kansas with a lower-body injury but is expected to play. Still, both players are cheap enough to warrant some consideration if desperate.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Goodie ($3,600) Allen has been the most productive Cincy receiver, but Goodie is on the field most of the starters, ranked second in targets (19), receptions (13) and yards (247). WR Jeff Caldwell ($3,500) has the same number of targets as Goodie, but not nearly as productive.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,700) Allen had a season-best 11 receptions for 128 yards and two scores on 13 targets in the win over Kansas and now has five scores in his last three games. It was in the last few weeks of fall camp that Allen was trending towards WR1 status for the Bearcats, and that’s all but cemented now.
Best of the Rest – RB Tawee Walker ($5,600) Mini breakout last week for Walker with 73 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 18 rushing attempts. Has he separated from Evan Pryor as the clear RB1 moving forward? Iowa State is average against the run, ranking 51st in success rate, but only giving up around 11 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Ismail Mahdi would’ve hit 100 yards rushing, though, against the Cyclones last week had that game remained competitive. He was averaging seven yards a pop.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. North Carolina
- Point-Spread: Clem -13.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – UNC 16
- Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Adam Randall ($6,600) The transition to running back has made Adam Randall some money, now coming off a season-best 130-yard performance in the loss to Syracuse in Week 4. Somehow, Randall’s receiving numbers are better as a running back than they were at receiver too – on pace to surpass the number of receptions (39) he’s had over the last two years combined. North Carolina is a below average ACC run defense, ranking 11th in yards allowed per game on the ground and 124th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – WR Antonio Williams ($7,800) Williams was targeted nine times in his return to the field in Week 4, but every Clemson receiver had a high number of targets when the team threw the ball 60 times. Williams doesn’t make much sense here as the highest-priced Clemson wideout when they’ll spread the ball around equally to multiple receivers.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($3,300) As expected, Brown did see a diminished role with Antonio Williams back in the lineup but did convert on all three of his targets vs. Syracuse. Think of Tyler Brown as an extension of the tight end position, because Clemson doesn’t have a Jake Briningstool on the roster. Low upside, low floor play.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,000) Clemson has not lived up to the preseason hype and Klubnik is no longer a Heisman contender, nor living up to his preseason status as the projected QB1 in college fantasy football. This is still too cheap of a salary for a quarterback projected at 24 fantasy points, with the high ceiling / high floor capabilities that he provides. North Carolina is a middle of the road pass defense overall in the ACC but allowed nearly a 150.0 QB rating to both TCU and UCF this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryant Wesco ($7,300) or WR TJ Moore ($6,300) Would probably reserve myself to one Clemson receiver per lineup as we don’t suspect the Tigers will need to throw the ball 40+ times this week against a hapless North Carolina offense as multiple-touchdown favorites. Wesco has been the team’s WR1 in the first month of the season, though we saw a breakout (finally) from Moore in Week 4, catching eight passes for 92 yards on a team-high 16 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Demon June ($5,100) It’s difficult to promote playing a running back on a team this poor offensively, but June has impressed the last two weeks, rushing for a combined 198 yards on the ground with a 7.6 YPC average for the season. The Clemson defense has been adequate against the run, limiting P4 opponents to under four yards per carry and ranking 38th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Whether it’s Max Johnson or Gio Lopez on Saturday, we’ll be fading the worst passing offense in the ACC…by a WIDE margin. The Heels average 61 pass yards per game fewer than the next closest team (Virginia Tech) in the conference.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Shipp ($3,300) Team leader in every receiving category with 17 targets, 13 receptions and two touchdowns in four games played. Shipp is playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. TE Jake Johnson ($3,500) would be the secondary option in the passing game, catching three passes on four targets in each of the last two games. Perhaps we see the brotherly connection if Max Johnson gets the starting nod.
Injury Notes – QB Gio Lopez (questionable)
Illinois vs. Purdue
- Point-Spread: Illini – 8.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: Illini 32 – Pur 23.5
- Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Hank Beatty ($5,400) The most consistent fantasy option for the Illini this season, now leading the team with 27 receptions on 32 targets, nearly double the amount of catches as the next closest Illinois receiver (though the gap is closing). 17 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season for Beatty.
Fade – RB Aidan Laughery ($4,300) Laughery seeing the least number of carries among Illinois running backs against USC makes sense given it was his first game back from injury. But it’s also possible Laughery is now the third option in the backfield after how Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine have performed in his absence. Fewer than four yards a carry in each of his last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR Collin Dixon ($3,300) We’re starting to see a true rotation form with the Illini receivers, and one will no longer be in the mix with Malik Elzy announcing he’s entering the portal. Dixon is starting to emerge as the secondary option to Beatty, now with 176 yards receiving over the last two games. Dixon might be the better play over Beatty because of the price difference. WR Hudson Clement ($3,200) doesn’t have the production to warrant playing him, but is the team leader in routes run and is on the field over 80% of the time in each of the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($8,300) Was hoping that Altmyer would be in the $6k range that he’s normally been throughout his career, but tough pill to swallow at $8.3k with just a 22-point projection. Purdue doesn’t grade out well defensively against the pass but are giving up just 16 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks for the year.
Best of the Rest – RB Kaden Feagin ($6,300) Purdue has not been good defending the run, particularly of late, giving up 77 yards and a TD to Waymond Jordan and most recently 157 yards and two scores to Jeremiyah Love. Double digit rushing attempts for Feagin in every game that wasn’t a blowout loss for Illinois this season, which shouldn’t be a blowout loss against Purdue.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Michael Jackson III ($3,600) Hee hee. Jackson continues to be underpriced for a player that has surpassed 70 receiving yards in all but one game this season. That came against Southern Illinois where Purdue simply did not need to throw the ball.
Fade – RB Devin Mockobee ($5,400) Very kind of the Illinois defensive coordinator to call Mockobee a “freak” and a running back that will be playing on Sundays. I disagree. We’ve seen the true Devin Mockobee the last several weeks, averaging well below four yards a carry with his volume of rushing attempts steadily declining.
Bargain Bin – WR Nitro Tuggle ($3,100) Tuggle hasn’t been as productive as Jackson, though he does lead the team in touchdowns (3) and is also No. 1 on the team in routes run. Tuggle has been on the field over 90% of the game in each of the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Ryan Browne ($6,600) Eventually I think we’re going to be considering Browne as a weekly starter in college fantasy DFS once Purdue has things up and running under Barry Odom. While Browne has been inconsistent, he’s performing well from a fantasy lens, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season. And the last time he faced this same Illini defense, Browne had 40 fantasy points, including 118 yards on the ground. His running abilities keep him in play every week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
- Point-Spread: UM -16.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: UM 29.5 – Wis 13
- Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – TE Lance Mason ($3,300) Mason now leads the team in targets (20), receptions (14), yards and touchdowns, scoring double-digit fantasy points in two of four games to start the year. This is a good matchup for the Missouri State transfer against a Michigan defense that struggles to defend tight ends, as the linebackers are not good in coverage. Nebraska’s Luke Lindenmeyer caught seven passes against the Wolverines in Week 4.
Fade – QBs. Billy Edwards is questionable. Danny O’Neil couldn’t hack it at San Diego State, so not sure why the coaching staff thought they could revitalize him in the B1G. It may come down to third-stringer Hunter Simmons – not great for what is already one of the country’s worst passing offenses.
Bargain Bin – WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,400) The middle of the field in coverage is where Michigan struggles the most, so tight ends and slot receivers tend to put up numbers, just as we saw against Nebraska with Jacory Barney nabbing a pair of touchdowns. Kekahuna also starts in the slot, coming off a season-best 77 yards and five receptions on eight targets vs. Maryland.
Pivot Play – RB Darrion Dupree ($4,500) If Dilin Jones is out, Dupree will get the start on Saturday. The sophomore back rushed for 52 yards on 14 attempts vs. Maryland in Week 4, though has failed to average more than four yards a carry against P4 opponents. Michigan is fourth in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground, so Dupree certainly isn’t an option if Jones is available, and barely an option if Jones is out.
Best of the Rest – WR Vinny Anthony ($3,100) Cheap price to pay, even with Wisconsin struggling to throw the football, for a starting receiver that has caught at least three passes in three of four games to start the year. Anthony can break a long touchdown at a moment’s notice and is Wisconsin’s top deep threat, with a 13.4 YPC average and 14.5 aDOT.
Injury Notes – RB Dilin Jones (questionable), QB Billy Edwards (questionable)
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Haynes ($8,000) Wisconsin does rank atop the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground, limiting all four of their opponents to under 75 total yards in all four games. That said, the Badgers also faced teams from the MAC, Sun Belt, a Jam Miller-less Alabama team and Maryland who is last in the conference in rushing. Michigan is second. Big Difference. Haynes is an option every week.
Fade – WR Channing Goodwin ($3,300) Have absolutely no idea why Channing Goodwin continues to be priced above WR Donaven McCulley ($3,200), especially considering there’s a good chance Goodwin is benched coming off his worst performance of the season vs. Nebraska that included a drop and just one reception on six targets. McCulley remains Michigan’s WR1.
Bargain Bin – TE Marlin Klein ($3,100) Doesn’t sound as though Hogan Hansen will be an option this week as he’s dealing with a new injury that isn’t associated with the other injury he had in fall camp. Klein hasn’t had the same impact the last two games as he did in the opener vs. New Mexico but will be the lone starter this week at tight end and had a full two weeks now to recover from the ankle injury he had in Week 2. Also…why is third-stringer Zack Marshall $4.7k?
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Underwood ($6,900) We’ve already seen one freshman quarterback dominate the Badgers this season with Maryland’s Malik Washington scoring 23 points two weeks ago in the rout of Wisconsin. The coaching staff finally unleashing Underwood’s running abilities in the last two weeks puts him in play as an option, with 175 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in that stretch.
Best of the Rest – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,300) Michigan hasn’t rotated much at receiver, though that could change with Goodwin, but Morgan’s standing as the top slot option remains intact…for better or worse. RB Jordan Marshall ($4,900) will continue to see 8-12 touches per game, which will happen again Saturday with Michigan as heavy favorites.
Injury Notes – TE Hogan Hansen (questionable)
Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
- Point-Spread: Ari – 20.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Ari 38.5 – Ok St 18
- Weather: 90 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trent Howland ($3,800) Rodney Fields got the start, and was impressive with his limited reps, averaging nearly eight yards a carry with a heck of a diving 47-yard reception in the second quarter. But for whatever reason, he gave way to Trent Howland who finished the day with 84 yards and two scores on 16 attempts. This backfield feels like it could go a number of different ways, but recency bias suggests Howland is the guy with the new staff in charge. Arizona is 4th in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground and 43rd in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Zane Flores ($5,900) In a better matchup last week at home with Baylor, Flores still only mustered 11 fantasy points. Now Flores is on the road against a secondary that is 18th in success rate per drop back and giving up just 13.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Gavin Freeman ($3,100) Very limited upside with Freeman (or any Oklahoma State WR) but the former Oklahoma transfer does lead the team in receptions (13) and three or more catches in three of the four games played. The limited upside comes from a 9.1 YPC average and 5.5 aDOT.
Pivot Play – RB Rodney Fields ($4,200) Fields may have fallen down the depth chart to RB2 behind Howland, but his utilization in the passing game keeps him in the mix as a potential option. 11 receptions on 13 targets in the last two games alone, including a beautiful 47-yard diving catch vs. Baylor where he lined up outside like a WR.
Best of the Rest – WR Shamar Rigby ($3,100) or WR Terrill Davis ($3,400) Prefer Rigby to Davis based on last week’s performances with the former Purdue transfer leading the team with 84 yards and five catches on eight targets. We did see a bit of separation among the OSU receivers with both Rigby and Davis playing over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Limit one Oklahoma State WR per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – RB Ismail Mahdi ($6,100) Mahdi was running exceptionally well for Arizona last week against a better run defense in Iowa State, averaging nearly seven yards a carry, but only received 13 attempts as the game got out of hand. Assuming Arizona can handle being a three-touchdown favorite, Mahdi is one of the top plays on the slate, facing the worst run defense in the Big 12.
Fade – WR Chris Hunter ($5,600) Hunter might be on the verge of losing his starting spot unless he pulls it together. Just 10 catches on 21 targets with a team-high four drops. He’s struggling with his hands and struggling to get open consistently – the two things you need to do to be a receiver.
Bargain Bin – WR Luke Wysong ($3,100) Wysong could see his playing time increase over the next couple weeks if the starters (Hunter) continue to be ineffective. Wysong saw his most time on the field against Iowa State last week, finishing with three catches on four targets. Rostering any Arizona receiver is a major risk each week, likely not one worth taking either.
Pivot Play – WR Kris Hutson ($5,500) Hutson returned from injury to lead the team with 67 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in the loss to Iowa State. The issue is that he seemed to reaggravate whatever prior injury that he had coming in. If you want to play Hutson, you’ll need to ensure he plays in full. WR Javin Whatley ($4,000) is the team leader in targets (24), receptions (17) and second in routes run.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($8,800) Really tough to rationalize playing Fifita here who’s been one of the more inconsistent fantasy quarterbacks over the last two seasons, especially at this price. Oklahoma State is also dead last in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed per game, and 124th in pass D success rate, so the matchup is fine. It’s the price tag that is tough to swallow.
Injury Notes – RB Kedrick Reescano (questionable)
Boise State vs. Notre Dame
- Point-Spread: ND -19.5
- O/U Total: 64.5
- Implied Score: ND 42 – BSU 22.5
- Weather: 81 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Marshall ($3,600) There’s no good option on the Boise State side this week, unfortunately. The Notre Dame secondary looked functional for the first time this season against Arkansas last week – maybe the issues from the first month of the year have been corrected. Marshall is first on the team in routes run, second in targets (19) and is the cheapest relevant receiver on the Boise State side so he gets top billing. The issue is that most of his fantasy points this season have come against lesser opponents.
Fade – RB Sire Gaines ($5,200) If playing a Boise State running back, it makes a bit more sense to spend down for RB Dylan Riley at ($4,400) as he did start the game last week vs. Appalachian State. He did not have an encore performance, rushing for just 46 yards on 16 carries, but did lead the team in rushing attempts. Gaines looked the better of the two, but this is a full-fledged committee from the looks of it. Notre Dame has been solid against the run, ranking 57th in rush D success rate. Half of the rushing yards given up to Arkansas last week came from the quarterback.
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($4,500) Not sure what the issue has been, but Lauter isn’t producing like the Top 5 fantasy tight end he was projected to be in the preseason. Still on the field plenty, ranking third on the team behind Marshall and Latrell Caples in routes run. Notre Dame has limited tight end production thus far, giving up just 6.5 FPPG to the position.
Pivot Play – WR Latrell Caples ($6,400) If Caples was priced in the range of Chris Marshall, we’d be all over him after his breakout performances the last two weeks with 80+ receiving yards in both games. That said, in every game this season so far, Notre Dame has allowed a WR to hit double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Maddux Madsen ($6,200) Madsen is coming off his best performance of the season with 321 yards and four scores vs. Appalachian State, while Notre Dame is 101st in success rate per opponent drop back. But we’ve seen this situation before when Madsen steps up in competition, he crumbles. Exhibit A – Week 1 vs. USF.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($9,800) No analysis needed here. Boise State won’t bend over the way that Arkansas did last week, but I think we’re at a player and coaching staff that will be gunning for the Doak Walker award this season. We’ve seen an uptick in volume as well this year, not having to share carries with Riley Leonard in the backfield.
Fade – RB Aneyas Williams ($3,900) Even in two blowouts the past few weeks, Williams has scored a combined nine fantasy points on just six touches. Depending on a blowout against a decent opponent is way too risky.
Bargain Bin – WR Malachi Fields ($3,800) One of, if not the best, sub-$4k option on the slate, accounting for 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last three games. Fields may not be Notre Dame’s WR1, but he’s solidified as a top three pass-catching option on the team. TE Eli Raridon ($4,100) is in play as well, as he rarely leaves the field, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Carr ($9,100) You can see the confidence growing with Carr, and the rapport developing with these transfer receivers with each passing week. The redshirt freshman tossed a season-high 354 yards and four touchdowns on Saturday vs. the Razorbacks. With two losses already, we know Notre Dame needs to run up these scores with the rest of their schedule to be in contention for the CFP. Good for fantasy purposes.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Faison ($4,900) Faison looks to be the team’s WR1, particularly over the last two weeks with a combined 194 receiving yards on 12 receptions. There’s a bit of separation with Faison and Fields over the other Irish receivers. RB Jadarian Price ($5,800) leads the team with six rushing touchdowns, all of which coming in the last three games. His volume is right on pace with last season, but similar to Love, he’s not competing with the quarterback for red-zone touches. WR Will Pauling ($3,300) appears to be getting more involved in the offensive game plans, particularly last week with 53 yards and a touchdown, with a season-high in snaps played.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
- Point-Spread: Bama – 9.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Bama 33 – Vand 23.5
- Weather: 83 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Vanderbilt
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($7,100) Pavia scored 27.7 fantasy points last season in his meeting with the Tide, with over 300 combined yards and two scores. Pavia also accounted for 21 rushing attempts in last season’s meeting, his second highest total of 2024. Expect Pavia’s usage both in the run and pass to be very high on Saturday. FWIW – Alabama’s pass defense has been excellent to start the year, ranked No. 1 in the SEC in yards allowed and just 11.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,800) Granted…Alexander had his best performance last season against this same Alabama team, rushing for 64 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. That would also equate to 3.0 YPC. The ceiling for Alexander is 20 fantasy points. The floor is 35 or fewer rush yards – something Alexander has done in eight of his last 12 games. If you have $4.8k salary remaining and an RB slot to fill, I get it…but upside isn’t worth the risk in my opinion.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Stowers ($3,900) He’ll be at the top of the scouting report, but that was the case last year too, and Stowers posted 113 yards receiving, converting on all six of his targets. Not a priority play given Alabama’s strength on the backend, but $3.9k is too cheap for this caliber a player.
Pivot Play – WR Richie Hoskins ($3,100) WR3 and the fourth option in the passing game, but Hoskins has seen an uptick in usage the last two weeks with nine of his 12 targets coming in that span, including 70 yards and a TD last week vs. Utah State.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Sherrill ($3,500) or WR Tre Richardson ($3,400) Limit one Vanderbilt wide receiver per lineup – this is not an Air Raid offense. Sherrill and Richardson combine for 61% of the targets that have gone to Vanderbilt receivers this season and six of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Ty Simpson ($7,300) Second-highest projection on the slate for quarterbacks, yet the 20th salary at the position. You do the math. Vanderbilt ranks just 83rd in the country in pass D success rate and allow 21.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Simpson is playing as well as any QB in the country over the last three games.
Fade – RB Jam Miller ($7,300) Need to see a bit more from Jam Miller before considering him, rushing for just 46 yards (2.9 YPC) on 16 attempts last week vs. Georgia. Vanderbilt’s run defense has been a strength, ranked third in the conference in yards allowed and 47th in success rate. There’s several RBs with better projections at a lower cost on the slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Lotzeir Brooks ($3,100) The 5-star freshman is still WR4 on the roster but has made an impact in the last three weeks with 128 receiving yards. Quotes from Isaiah Horton this week said that it’s a “scary” sight to see Brooks getting more comfortable within the offense. If Brooks made an impact against Georgia, he’ll surely get on the field this week against Vanderbilt too.
Pivot Play – RB Kevin Riley ($5,000) Riley is relegated to RB2 duties with Jam Miller back in the lineup but still accumulated 10 rushing attempts vs. Georgia last week and continues to be utilized in the passing game with 11 receptions on 11 targets in the last three games.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Ty Simpson’s projection and prop betting line are just under 300 receiving yards, so stacking multiple Bama wideouts in a lineup is possible, but unlikely given their salaries (unless its Lotzeir Brooks). Like Brooks, WR Isaiah Horton ($5,900) seems to be growing into his role within the offense after transferring in from Miami, now having scored a touchdown in three straight games. Any one of Horton, Ryan Williams or Germie Bernard are weekly options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Georgia
- Point-Spread: UGA -21.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: UGA 35 – UK 13.5
- Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Kentucky:
We want nothing to do with the Kentucky passing game, especially on the road at Georgia. It all comes down to whether RB Seth McGowan ($5,100) is playable against this UGA defense as he’s been the team’s only source of offense in 2025. The lean is towards no, as the Dawgs are giving up just 15 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, and rank 34th in rush D success rate. There aren’t many RBs in that price range that are playable at all on this slate. Would rather spend up $600 for Penn State’s Kaytron Allen if looking for an RB in that range.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($6,000) Can you name the last Georgia receiver that was a legitimate fantasy option? AJ Green maybe? Young isn’t at that level but has emerged as UGA’s top receiving target this season with 238 yards on 17 receptions, with 59 or more yards in each of the last three games.
Fade – RB Nate Frazier ($6,000) Two fumbles in three games have likely resulted in Frazier losing his starting job to RB Chauncey Bowens ($6,200). Maybe Frazier responds to dealing with adversity? That’s too big a risk at $6k in a matchup that isn’t overly favorable as Kentucky is 44th in rush D success rate. And that payoff likely won’t be great either, with Georgia likely giving carries to Bowens, Frazier, RB Josh McCray ($3,000) and Gunner Stockton.
Bargain Bin – WR London Humphreys ($3,300) Georgia receivers provide several examples of the success stories and cautionary tales of the transfer portal. Zachariah Branch is thriving this season in his first year with the team. Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas has not cracked the starting rotation despite being the Aggies’ WR1 just a year ago. Humphreys was a non-factor last season after transferring in from Vanderbilt but is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (2). Humphreys played more than both Thomas and Dillon Bell against Alabama.
Pivot Play – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,200) The pass defense for Kentucky is below average for SEC standards, ranked 82nd in success rate, 14th in the conference in yards allowed per game and dead last in yards per attempt allowed. Stockton is also averaging over 120 yards passing yards per game more away from home this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,800 Branch and Colbie Young have separated themselves from the pack a bit, accounting for 50% of the team’s receiving yards. Branch is tops on the team in targets (21) and has had at least three receptions in all four games this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Florida
- Point-Spread: Tex – 4.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: Tex 23.5 – UF 19
- Weather: 81 degrees / 47% rain / 18 mph winds
Texas:
It feels accurate to say that currently Texas simply doesn’t have many (any) fantasy relevant players this season on offense. There’s very little interest on the Texas side, much ado with the impending weather and the return of several starters coming back from injury. We’re not playing Arch Manning in 18 MPH winds and possible rain. There are QBs with higher projections and lower salaries that are better options. Tre Wisner hasn’t played since Week 1. If you think Christian Clark or Jerrick Gibson might be an option, consider the fact that Florida is allowing just 111 yards per game on the ground and 11th nationally in rush D success rate. Who does Arch Manning favor in the passing game now that BOTH DeAndre Moore Jr. and Emmett Mosley are back from injury?
Injury Notes – RB CJ Baxter (doubtful)
Florida:
Top Play(s) – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,100) Hansen rarely leaves the field, playing nearly 100% of the offensive snaps for Florida in the last three games, and is third on the team in targets (20) and tied for second in receptions (15). You’re not spending any significant capital on Florida players this week, but Hansen makes sense at near min-pricing.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($6,400) If you’re creating 100 lineups for Saturday in GPPs, none of them should include DJ Lagway. After tossing 5 interceptions vs. LSU in Week 3, Lagway threw for a career low 61 yards against Miami. The Longhorns are 21st in pass D success rate and giving up just 8.5 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – RB Duke Clark ($3,000) The true freshman is expected to assume the RB2 role behind Jadan Baugh on Saturday with both Ja’Kobi Jackson and Treyaun Webb out due to injury. Unlikely, but maybe Florida has the secret sauce to gaining yards on the ground against these Longhorns like they did a year ago with over 200+ rushing yards vs. Texas last season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Several reasons why we should probably fade all Florida receivers. (1) DJ Lagway stinks. (2) Texas’ secondary does not. (3) This is the healthiest the Florida WR room has been all season, likely getting back Aidan Mizell and 5-star freshman Dallas Wilson, both of whom are likely to challenge for playing time. Targets could be distributed several different ways on Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out), RB Treyaun Webb (out)
Virginia vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: Lou -6.5
- O/U Total: 62.5
- Implied Score: Lou 34.5 – UVA 28
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Mari Taylor ($6,900) There aren’t any great options on the UVA side, but Taylor gets top billing as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in four of five games this season, including a season-best 27 rushing attempts in the win over Florida State. Louisville ranks in the top half of the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground, but haven’t been a dominant group by any stretch, allowing 190 rushing yards in Week 4 to Bowling Green. Even a Desmond Reid-less Pittsburgh team found some success on the ground last week. FWIW – Virginia will be without its starting center this week who was in a boot vs. Louisville.
Fade – RB Xavier Brown ($4,700) Brown’s a solid player, but his playing time has fluctuated this season, seeing around 8-10 touches per game. That was exacerbated last week with J’Mari Taylor’s 27 rushing attempts. Might we see UVA lean more into Taylor as the clear RB1 moving forward? Either way, this isn’t the matchup for a backup running back, as Louisville is 18th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahmal Edrine ($3,500) or TE Dakota Twitty ($3,100) Edrine has been the last productive of UVA’s three starting receivers but has caught at least two passes in every game this season and is second on the team in routes run behind Trell Harris. Twitty, the converted WR turned TE, saw a season-high seven targets vs. Florida State last week.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($6,700) Louisville is tops in the ACC in yards allowed per game through the air, but the opponents faced must be taken into context, having faced Eastern Kentucky, James Madison and Bowling Green. The Cardinals forced Eli Holstein into three turnovers, so this is still a really solid secondary, but did allow 23 fantasy points to the Pitt quarterback. Morris hitting that number is viable.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Ross ($4,400) or WR Trell Harris ($4,400) Probably wouldn’t stack UVA receivers together given the Louisville secondary, but Virginia doesn’t rotate much at receiver so Ross, Harris and Edrine are all options. Harris leads UVA in touchdowns (3) and routes run, while Ross is tops in receptions (24) and targets (35).
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($7,100) and / or WR Caullin Lacy ($5,300) The WR duo has now combined for 50% of the team’s targets this season and 54% of the receiving production. No other Louisville player has more than eight receptions this season. Having at least one Louisville wideout in a lineup makes sense and could get creative with stacking both together given the high target share.
Fade – RBs. Promising to see that both Issac Brown and Duke Watson got 14 carries last week vs. Louisville after barely playing the week prior but doesn’t sound like either player is healthy still according to HC Jeff Brohm. In this week’s presser, Brohm commented on their statuses, stating, “That’s a concern, without question. We’ll do our part to try to get them as healthy as we can. Those guys, like a handful of others, I applaud them for playing not 100% and fighting through things.” Unfortunately, until we see either player back to their normal level of production, I don’t think we can realistically risk either player in our lineups.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaleel Skinner ($3,100) Skinner is third on the team in routes run, and is the only pass-catcher beyond Bell / Lacy that has been on the field consistently over the last several weeks. Caught a touchdown on four targets vs. Pittsburgh in Week 4.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,900) Makes more sense to play the other quarterback in this same game, as Chandler Morris is cheaper with a higher projection. Moss had his best game of the year with 339 yards and four total touchdowns, bouncing back after throwing a pick six in the first half. UVA is only giving up around 19 FPPG to quarterbacks so far this season, and the two QBs that found the most success – Thomas Castellanos and CJ Bailey – combined for three rushing touchdowns in their matchups. Moss doesn’t run like that.
Injury Notes – Pay attention to Isaac Brown and Duke Watson in pregame warmups.
Penn State vs. UCLA
- Point-Spread: PSU -25.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: PSU 37.5 – UCLA 12
- Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($8,500) and / or RB Kaytron Allen ($5,700) No deep dive analysis here. Penn State’s passing game struggles combined with being a near four-touchdown favorite means we want exposure to the Nittany Lions backfield. UCLA is 136th in rush D success rate – dead last in the country – and 18th out of 18 teams in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($8,500) Maybe Penn State uses this as a get-right game for Allar against a porous UCLA defense to alleviate some of the pressure off the senior quarterback who is facing mounting criticism for his big-game performances. Luckily, this isn’t a top 10 matchup, but Allar also hasn’t done much in non-competitive games this year, scoring fewer than 17 fantasy points in all four games this year.
Bargain Bin – WR Devonte Ross ($3,300) Ross’ playing time has been on a steady uptick since barely playing in Week 1, coming off his best performance of the year with a pair of touchdowns in the loss to Oregon. He’s the top Penn State WR option combining the production / cost factors.
Pivot Play – TE Luke Reynolds ($4,900) Reynolds certainly hasn’t been Tyler Warren but is third on the team in targets (20) and receptions (14), facing a UCLA defense that is giving up around 16 FPPG to the tight end position each week.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyron Hudson ($5,300) or WR Trebor Pena ($5,100) First and second, respectively, on the team in targets and routes run, with Pena leading Penn State in receptions (15). Yet again, another year where there is not a relevant fantasy option at receiver for the Nittany Lions as they’re spreading the ball around to 4-5 different options. Limit one Penn State WR per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Facing Penn State in a normal setting would already be an uphill battle for this UCLA offense. After a crushing loss to Oregon, I would not want to be facing the Nittany Lions this week…unless, of course, I were a team ranked in the top 10 (Hi, James Franklin). Zero interest in Nico Iamaleava against any opponent. The running game is abysmal. WR Kwazi Gilmer ($6,200) hopefully lands on a competent team in 2026 where he can let his talents shine. Too expensive this week, though. The only UCLA option is WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,000) who made his return to the field last week, catching four passes on five targets.
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Ismail Mahdi, Arizona
- QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- WR Michael Jackson III, Purdue
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- WR T.J. Moore, Clemson
- QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson
- TCU WR Joseph Manjack IV or Jordan Dwyer (if McAlister is out)
