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UNLV vs. Wyoming
- Point-Spread: UNLV -3.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: UNLV 27.5 – Wyo 24
- Weather: 52 degrees / 76% rain / 13 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaden Bradley ($5,000) Bradley has maintained his status as UNLV’s WR1, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season. His 27 targets are more than double the number of the next closest UNLV receiver. WRs have found success this season against this Wyoming secondary, namely Colorado’s Omarion Miller (6-88-1) and Utah’s Ryan Davis (10-91-0).
Fade – WR JoJo Earle ($4,100) The former Alabama and TCU transfer continues to start for the Rebels, but his playing time has fluctuated this season, and his impacts have been minimal, with just one performance of more than 20 yards receiving. Against Miami (Ohio) in Week 4, there were four UNLV receivers who were on the field more than Earle, three of which have a cheaper salary.
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Omerie ($4,000) Omerie has been active the last two games, catching a touchdown in Week 2 vs. UCLA, followed by 69 yards on six targets in the win over Miami (Ohio). WR DaeDae Reynolds ($3,100) was also targeted six times in Week 4. Low-cost, but low-priority options for the Rebels as Jaden Bradley is the clear-cut WR1.
Pivot Play – RB Keyvone Lee ($5,000) Jai’Den Thomas popped up on the Thursday injury report, listed as questionable for Saturday night’s matchup. Lee, a former Mississippi State and Penn State transfer, has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games, and would get the start if Thomas were to be out or limited. Wyoming is 10th in the MWC in yards allowed per game on the ground, and 103rd nationally in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,400) A 23-point projection at this salary puts Colandrea in play as an option and could shoulder a bigger load as a runner if Jai’Den Thomas does not play. The one concern would be the weather, where the temps could drop as low as 35 degrees at night with possible rain. Colandrea is used to UNLV’s indoor stadium and 90-degree temperatures with the Rebels. We could see a lower scoring affair on Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Jai’Den Thomas (questionable)
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Durr Jr. ($4,800) When’s the last time Wyoming of all teams has a legitimate target hog? Tanner Gentry back in 2016? The sophomore wideout has 32% of the team’s target share and 40% of Wyoming’s receiving yards this season, finding the end-zone in three of four games. UNLV is poor on the back end, allowing 275 YPG through the air which is 124th in the country.
Fade – QB Kaden Anderson ($6,400) $7.4k is the lowest we’re willing to spend at the quarterback position on this slate, and we’ll find value elsewhere. Anderson has failed to throw more than 200 yards passing in three of four games this season.
Bargain Bin – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($4,300) JMG remains questionable, but the tea leaves are pointing to the star tight end returning for Saturday’s contest. With no legitimate WR2 option emerging behind Chris Durr, Gyllenborg will be the second read in the passing game for the Cowboys.
Pivot Play – RB Samuel “Tote” Harris ($6,400) The Cowboys look like they may have found the future at running back in the freshman Harris who rushed for 123 yards on 18 attempts in the loss to Colorado. That’s now three straight games where Harris has averaged over six yards per attempt. UNLV is 113th in rush D success rate this season, allowing 5.44 YPC. It’s arguable that Harris is Wyoming’s top play and not Durr.
Injury Notes – TE John Michael Gyllenborg (questionable)
Texas Tech vs. Houston
- Point-Spread: TT -12.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: TT 31.5 – Hou 19
- Weather: 85 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($6,300) or RB J’Koby Williams ($6,100) Dickey isn’t the most explosive running back but continues to find the end-zone with six rushing touchdowns in four games, accounting for at least one score in every game. Williams has seen double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last two games and has been explosive as a pass-catcher with over 180 yards in the last two games. Houston is 84th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($7,900) Would rather spend up a few hundred bucks to roster Jalon Daniels or one of the top-end quarterbacks than Morton who only projects for 19 fantasy points. Houston is second in the B12 in yards allowed per game through the air and giving up just 12.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,200) or WR Coy Eakin ($4,300) Douglas hasn’t been the WR1 some anticipated him to be, but is on the field a ton, playing 97% of the snaps last time out vs. Utah. Eakin was quiet against the Utes but caught a touchdown in each of the first three games to start the year. It’s a game of roulette trying to guess which Tech receiver will pop in a given week, but these salaries are too cheap. I’d mix both in multiple lineups.
Pivot Play – WR Reggie Virgil ($5,400) Numbers aren’t that dissimilar from the two receivers listed above, but Virgil is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4) and second behind Caleb Douglas on the team in routes run. He’ll see less ownership than the other two because of pricing.
Best of the Rest – TE Terrance Carter Jr. ($5,400) Carter is an option, but not a priority. Tied for team lead in touchdowns (4), but Houston is only giving up 4.0 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,600) Figuring Houston will have to throw the ball more than expected on Saturday, Koziol figures to see plenty of action, leading the team in receptions (23), targets (27) and touchdowns (2). Texas Tech has struggled to defend the tight end position so far, allowing 13.2 FPPG to the position.
Fade – RB Dean Connors ($7,200) Texas Tech is the No. 1 run defense in the B12, allowing just 56 yards per game on the ground, which is also second-best in the entire country. Connors is seeing heavier volume with injuries at running back for the Cougars, but the only time he averaged more than 4.0 YPC was in Week 2 against Rice. If Connors is in the winning lineup, it’s because he’ll get thrown a bunch of passes as a receiver, but because he’s churning yards out on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Amare Thomas ($3,300) Don’t see many paths to Houston finding much success on the ground this week, and Thomas is coming off a season-best performance with 104 yards and six catches on nine targets vs. Oregon State. Thomas is underpriced here.
Pivot Play – WR Stephon Johnson ($4,000) Not sure why Johnson is priced above Amare Thomas, but he’s the third option in the passing game beyond Thomas and Tanner Koziol. Johnson is third on the team in targets (17) and first in routes run. Johnson, Thomas and Koziol account for 82% of the team’s receiving production.
Best of the Rest – QB Conner Weigman ($7,000) 20-point projection at $7k is playable, but not overly intriguing given he’s facing one of the best defenses in the entire country. Tech is giving up just 13.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
- Point-Spread: A&M -13.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: A&M 34.5 – MSU 21
- Weather: 86 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
