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Florida vs. Texas A&M
- Point-Spread: A&M -7.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: A&M 27.5 – UF 20
- Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Mario Craver ($6,300) and / or WR KC Concepcion ($5,900) A&M threw 22 passes last week, 15 of which were in the direction of either Craver or Concepcion in the win over Mississippi State. That’s largely consistent with the season-long trends, as the duo accounts for 54% of the target share and 71% of the team’s receiving production. You can play either or stack both together for leverage against the field.
Fade – RB Le’Veon Moss ($7,800) Moss cost me a significant chunk of coin last weekend after suffering an injury vs. Mississippi State. I’m not sure what exactly is going on with Moss but he’s been dealing with some nagging ailment for a while now. With the way that RB Rueben Owens ($4,100) looked last week, rushing for 142 yards on 21 attempts, it would not surprise us to see a split backfield against the Gators. Florida is only giving up 22 combined FPPG to opposing backfields and are 10th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – See above with Rueben Owens II.
Pivot Play – QB Marcel Reed ($8,200) Many of the predictions surrounding this matchup are that it’ll be more of a defensive battle rather than an offensive shootout. For that reason, we tend to lean against Reed here, though he’s been largely consistent from a fantasy standpoint this season, scoring 23 or more fantasy points in four of five starts. The Gators are only allowing around 15 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. The defense hasn’t been the issue in Gainesville.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Dallas Wilson ($4,700) Looks like the issues with DJ Lagway weren’t injury related, but more so that Eugene Wilson and J. Michael Sturdivant are not good wide receivers. Instantly the passing offense for the Gators came alive with Dallas Wilson in the starting lineup, catching six passes for 111 yards and two scores. We’d like to see Wilson do it two weeks in a row before fully buying in, but $4.7k is an inexpensive price to pay.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($7,600) Lagway threw for 298 yards last week vs. Texas and still failed to score 20 fantasy points, something he has yet to do all season still. A&M has a borderline elite pass defense, allowing just 180 YPG through the air and are giving up just 11.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks for the year.
Bargain Bin – Secondary WRs. Based on the rotations last week, it was a three-way split on the boundary with Wilson, Vernell Brown III and J. Michael Sturdivant each playing over 53% of the team’s offensive snaps. Aidan Mizell returned from injury and started in place of Eugene Wilson in the slot, hauling in four passes on six targets. The one WR on Florida you cannot consider at this moment would be Wilson.
Pivot Play – RB Jadan Baugh ($5,800) Another full list of Florida RBs on the injury report this week, meaning we could see 20+ attempts again for Baugh on Saturday night. A&M’s run defense is solid, allowing just 3.4 YPC so Baugh isn’t a priority play, but like last week, could hit or surpass value based on volume alone. If Ja’Kobi Jackson (questionable) doesn’t play, I couldn’t tell you who the backup is. The only other player outside of Baugh and Clark to get a carry last week was Vernell Brown.
Best of the Rest – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,400) For the fourth straight week with Tony Livingston on the shelf, Hansen has played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Gators. Hansen is first on the team in routes run, tied for second in targets (22) and second in receptions (17).
Injury Notes – RB Duke Clark (out), RB Treyaun Webb (out), RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (questionable), TE Tony Livingston (questionable)
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
- Point-Spread: Iowa -3
- O/U Total: 37
- Implied Score: Iowa 20 – Wisc 17
- Weather: 64 degrees / 10% rain / 12 mph winds
Iowa:
Don’t really know why I’m even bothering to write anything about these two offensively inept teams. Somehow the passing game for Iowa could be downgraded even more with QB Mark Gronowski ($7,200) considered a game-time decision. WR Sam Phillips ($3,200) and WR Jacob Gill ($3,400) are cheap enough to consider, and Wisconsin can be thrown on, giving up around 40 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. We just don’t know yet who exactly will be throwing Phillips and Gill the football. RB Kamari Moulton ($6,000) is playable at his salary with a 14.6-point projection, but Wisconsin is best at defending the run, ranked No. 2 in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Wisconsin:
Out on the QB situation. Out on the running backs facing the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten. The only players to consider here are WR Vinny Anthony ($4,500), WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,600) or TE Lance Mason ($4,600). That trio has combined for 61% of Wisconsin’s receiving production and half of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Only interesting storyline to follow here is if this will be the last game for Luke Fickell as Wisconsin head coach.
Georgia vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: UGA -3.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: UGA 25 – Aub 21.5
- Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Gunner Stockton ($6,400) We have cheap dual-threat quarterback in Stockton in a matchup between two teams that don’t defend the pass particularly well, at least for SEC standards. Auburn is 12th in the conference in yards allowed per game through the air and 106th in pass D success rate. While the Tigers will give up some chunks in the passing game, they’ve limited dual-threat QBs on the ground quite well. John Mateer had just 29 yards on 10 carries, while Marcel Reed had negative rushing yards. I believe Stockton will have high ownership because of his pricing, so make the argument of fading vs. the field.
Fade – RB Nate Frazier ($5,100) Frazier is the RB2 now. Moving on.
Bargain Bin – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,000) or WR Dillon Bell ($3,300) Smaller / shifty wide receivers have given the Auburn secondary more fits this season than the bigger-bodied types like a Colbie Young for example. That fits the description of Branch or Bell here. Isaiah Sategna had 100+ on the Tigers. KC Concepcion went over 100+ vs. Auburn. Even South Alabama slot receiver Anthony Eager had eight receptions. Bell had an exceptional game vs. Kentucky last week with 68 yards on four catches with two rushing scores. They’d be the two UGA receivers to look to.
Pivot Play – RB Chauncey Bowens ($6,500) Bowens has fully taken over the RB1 job, leading the Dawgs last week with 15 rushing attempts in the win over Kentucky. I’d lean towards fading him against this Auburn defense that is No. 3 nationally in rush D success rate and allowing a combined 13.7 FPPG to opposing backfields. And this is a Georgia offense, we know Frazier will still be involved, Josh McCray will be involved, along with Stockton in the run game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
