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Alabama vs. Missouri
- Point-Spread: Ala -3.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Ala 28 – Mizzou 24.5
- Weather: 71 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Ty Simpson ($9,000) Alabama is second in the SEC in yards per game through the air with Simpson throwing to one of the best WR rooms in the country. Implied total doesn’t necessarily suggest shootout, so Simpson won’t be a Core 4 option, but we know what we’re getting each week from the Alabama passing game. Missouri is 3rd in the SEC in yards allowed per game through the air, but those numbers are inflated by facing bad opponents. South Carolina and Kansas both managed to find success against this Tigers’ secondary.
Fade – RB Kevin Riley ($4,400) Jam Miller looked pretty healthy last week, didn’t he? Riley had a season-low five rushing attempts for 17 yards against Vanderbilt, while on the field just 22% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,800) Horton’s progression in the offense is steadily rising with each week, having found the end-zone in three of the last four games with a 78.3% catch rate. That’d be even higher if not for two drops in the last two games. Horton is on the field more than Ryan Williams, ranked third behind Germie Bernard and Josh Cuevas in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Jam Miller ($7,200) Missouri is No. 1 in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground but lets consider the teams faced. Central Arkansas was the team that ran for the most yards – 154 in the opening week. Kansas (54th), Louisiana (23rd), UMass (135th) and South Carolina (122nd). That’s a lot of mediocre to downright bad rush offenses in that group. Bama isn’t much better (105th) but as we saw last week, a healthy Jam Miller changes the dynamic of the offense. Missouri’s run defense numbers are inflated as well by the schedule.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Williams ($7,900) or WR Germie Bernard ($5,900) Williams continues to be the highest-priced Alabama receiver despite leading the country in drops per game. Bernard remains Mr. Reliable for the Tide, catching a touchdown pass in each of the last four games, leading the team in targets (33), receptions (25) and routes run. Bernard barely came off the field against Vandy last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($8,300) Hardy is in play no matter the defense as one of, if not the best, running back in the entire country. The sophomore running back is 7th in attempts, 1st in rushing yards, and maintains a ridiculous 5.3 yards after contact average. SEC opponents have found success on the ground against the Tide with Georgia’s Chauncey Bowens rushing for 100+ on 12 carries, along with Vandy’s Sedrick Alexander averaging over 20 yards per rush.
Fade – n/a – All Missouri starters are in play at attainable prices.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,100) Norfleet is the cheapest, realistic option for the Tigers, playing over 85% of the team’s offensive snaps with a team-best four receiving touchdowns. I did want to spotlight Norfleet as well, though, because the Tide have succeeded at defending the tight end position this season, allowing just 22 yards last week to Eli Stowers which was the most by any TE facing Alabama.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Roberts ($4,800) I’ll be honest – I don’t know what to do with this one. Roberts has been the perfect complement to Hardy, averaging over seven yards per carry this season with three rushing touchdowns. And he hasn’t necessarily beat up on the low-level teams on the schedule either. 143 yards in Week 2 vs. Kansas. 76 yards and a touchdown vs. South Carolina. This is one where I do reference the betting prop market and projections, which only have Roberts around 40-45 yards, so take that fwiw.
Best of the Rest – QB Beau Pribula ($7,100) Pribula’s fantasy numbers have come back down to Earth in recent weeks, and his projection reflects that at just 18.4 points. Alabama has not allowed more than one passing touchdown in any game this season and have faced several dual threats in preparation for this matchup with Diego Pavia and Gunner Stockton in recent weeks. WR Kevin Coleman ($6,300) has been the perfect transfer addition to the offense, with no drop off from Luther Burden last year, with 39 receptions and a team-high 43 targets. WR Marquis Johnson ($4,700) is second in targets (26) and leads the Tigers in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -11.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: Cin 33 – UCF 21.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 4% rain / 3 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($6,200) Over thought it last week suggesting Jaden Nixon was the better value over Myles Montgomery, and the latter was in the winning lineups with less than 5% ownership, rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns vs. Kansas. Expect UCF to lean on Montgomery even more this week with likely having to start Cam Fancher at quarterback.
Fade – QB Cam Fancher ($6,500) Rule No. 1 of College Football DFS – Never Cam Fancher.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaden Nixon ($3,700) Montgomery is the RB1, that much is clear now, but what more does Jaden Nixon need to do to get on the field more. Four rushing touchdowns in the last four games, and an absurd 12.4 YPC average. Even against Kansas last week with Montgomery stealing the show, Nixon managed 60 yards on just seven attempts. Should be a run-heavy script for UCF on Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Kylan Fox ($3,300) Fox led UCF last week with six targets. I’d figured that typical starter Dylan Wade was out with injury if that was the case, but nope, Wade was in the lineup too. Fox has seven receptions in the last two games with 11 combined targeted.
Best of the Rest – WR Duane Thomas ($3,800) or WR Waden Charles ($3,200) Better off looking at other options if Cam Fancher does get the nod on Saturday, but Thomas and Charles would be the top options if you did want a UCF receiver. Thomas converted on all six of his targets vs. Kansas, while leading the team in every receiving category for the season. Charles, a 4-star freshman, logged a season-best three receptions, playing over 95% of the team’s snaps, which was also a season-high.
Injury Notes – QB Tayven Jackson (questionable),
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,700) Sorsby continues to be underpriced and should be another high-ownership play on the slate, but for good reason, scoring 29 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games. Sorsby has the highest projection of any player on the entire slate for theCFFSite. UCF was able to corral Jalon Daniels last week, though weather had much to do with that, but did allow 75 yards on the ground to Avery Johnson in the week prior.
Fade – n/a – All Cincinnati starters are in play at attainable prices.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Goodie ($4,000) Goodie came through last week for those that rostered him, though it was a sweat, with his 82-yard touchdown coming late in the second half. Both Goodie and WR Jeff Caldwell ($3,900) remain options because of their pricing, and the fact Cincinnati isn’t rotating much at receiver beyond the top three. That said, UCF’s secondary might be better than Iowa State, ranking 38th in success rate and 25th in PFF coverage grades.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,000) or RB Evan Pryor ($4,400) As we saw last week, the RBs are playable with Brendan Sorsby in a lineup, but don’t think we see the shootout that we did with Iowa State. Walker has come on of late with three rushing touchdowns in the last three games, averaging six yards a carry. Pryor has over 200+ in the last two weeks, with two scores last Saturday. UCF is 10th in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground and 84th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,800) Allen will see low ownership with his salary in comparison to Caleb Goodie, and Allen’s ownership probably takes a bigger hit after just three catches last week vs. the Cyclones. We shouldn’t dismiss the three games prior to that, though, with five combined touchdowns, including an 11-catch performance against Kansas.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Oklahoma State
- Point-Spread: Hou -13.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Hou 30.5 – OSU 17
- Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) –
Mike’s DK Core Four:
Mike’s FD Core Four:
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
