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Louisville vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -13.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Mia 33 – UL 19.5
- Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain /14 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($6,900) After a slow (ish) start to the season, Bell is looking like the prototypical Jeff Brohm WR1 that we’re accustomed to seeing the last few weeks with a combined 22 receptions on 28 targets with 300+ receiving yards and three scores vs. Pittsburgh and Virginia. Miami hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, but the big-play threats seem to give the Canes trouble over the top, ranking 79th in explosive plays allowed in the passing game. Chas Nimrod had 100+ yards, while Duce Robinson put up 87 yards on just six catches.
Fade – QB Miller Moss ($8,200) We were fading Moss here regardless at $8.2k with a 14-point projection. That was crystalized on Tuesday during Jeff Brohm’s weekly radio hit with the local media where he came out and said “we’ll most likely use two quarterbacks” against Miami. Probably some gamesmanship there to get the Canes to plan for multiple QBs, but the projection with or without factoring in two quarterbacks doesn’t warrant playing Moss here.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaleel Skinner ($3,100) If Louisville is not throwing to Bell or Caullin Lacy (rare), it’s usually in the direction of Skinner who has caught seven passes in the last two games. Miami is allowing 12.5 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,200) Sophomore slump for Brown who has just 106 rushing yards over the last three games but largely attributed to not being healthy for the better part of the last month. Brown looked improved against Virginia in Week 6, averaging almost six yards per carry, and had a bye week to get healthy. The most yards any running back has had against Miami this season is 47 by FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk, so expect Brown to have very little ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Caullin Lacy ($6,200) If choosing between the two Louisville receivers, the strong lean is towards Bell as he fits the prototype that has given this Miami secondary the most troubles. But Louisville doesn’t really throw to anyone outside of this duo, so Lacy is considerable. Bell and Lacy combine for 55% of the team’s receiving production and 47% of the target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($4,900) One of two Miami receivers that is severely underpriced on the slate, coming off his best performance of the season with 107 yards and two touchdowns vs. Florida State. Toney’s efficiency is what stands out the most, catching at least six passes in four of five games played with an 81% catch rate and zero drops. Slot receivers have given Louisville trouble the last two games with Virginia’s Cam Ross (4-43-1) and Pittsburgh’s Cataurus Hicks (4-113-1).
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($5,000) Will be intrigued to see how the RB rotation shakes out this week for the Canes as we saw Jordan Lyle get his first string of action since Week 1 coming back from injury. Brown’s production suffered as a result against FSU with just 19 yards on eight attempts, only one more than Lyle received (7). $5.0k for a backup running back that might still be splitting time isn’t that appealing.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,500) or WR Keelan Marion ($3,100) Miami pass-catchers beyond Daniels and Toney are low-ceiling / low-floor options, but a small argument can be made for both. Lofton’s usage has increased over the last two weeks with seven of his 11 receptions this season coming in that span. Marion is still holding onto a starting job, playing over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. You have to wonder if his starting spot is in jeopardy, though, coming out of the bye week with just eight receiving yards in the last two games. Might be Joshua Moore time sooner rather than later.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($4,200) Daniels is playable with or without Toney, as the duo combines for 49% of the team’s receiving production and eight of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Like Toney, Daniels has been incredible efficient with an 82% catch rate and at least four catches in all five games played.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($7,900) There aren’t many good RB options on the slate, so Fletcher is certainly in play. But the junior back averaged just 3.3 yards per carry his last time out, and now there’s another option in the backfield to account for with Jordan Lyle. QB Carson Beck ($7,600) is a Heisman frontrunner, but we like some other QB options on the slate better (Walker Eget / Bryson Barnes). Louisville’ secondary is 7th in success rate, allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/aQ
Nebraska vs. Minnesota
- Point-Spread: Neb -7.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Neb 27 – Minn 19.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 12% rain / 9 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Emmett Johnson ($7,600) Lock in the volume play at the position without a ton of options on the slate. Johnson is tied for 10th nationally in rushing attempts per game (17.5) and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season due in large part to his usage in the pass game with 24 receptions on 29 targets. Minnesota is slightly below average for B1G standards defending the run, ranked 74th in success rate and 80th in explosive plays allowed on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Nyziah Hunter ($3,900) The Raiola / Hunter connection is heating up the last several weeks with a combined 218 yards and three touchdowns vs. Michigan State and Maryland. There is zero reason that Hunter should have a lower salary than Dane Key. That said…
Pivot Play – WR Dane Key ($4,300) or WR Jacory Barney ($3,600) Hunter is the best WR play for Nebraska, but the numbers show how evenly spread out the targets are for the Cornhuskers, with the WR1-3 separated by a mere six catches. Hunter will have significantly higher ownership than Key/Barney if looking for leverage against the field in GPP. Boundary receivers seem to give Minnesota the most trouble this season which favors Key (and Hunter) in this spot. Carnell Tate went for 150+ yards, while Rutgers’ KJ Duff posted 84 yards and a touchdown on six catches.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($6,700) Raiola makes more sense to me than Carson Beck or Miller Moss at a significantly lesser cost with a marginally higher projection. The Gophers are a middle of the road pass defense, ranked 9th in the B1G in yards allowed through the air, and are giving up 21.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($5,400) The run game is an issue for the Gophers, but here’s the positive spin on playing Taylor this week. First and foremost, he’s cheap, and for good reason you could argue, averaging less than two yards a carry over the last two games. Taylor’s involvement in the passing game last week is a plus, catching six passes on eight targets vs. Purdue. No other Minnesota running back carried the football against the Boilermakers, so no competition for carries. Most importantly, this is a terrible Nebraska run defense, ranked second to last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and 90th in success rate.
Fade – QB Drake Lindsey ($7,000) There’s really no reason to play Lindsey on this slate, unless a game stack thinking this game could shoot out (it won’t). Lindsey is priced higher than Raiola, yet with a significantly lower projection (14.7 fpts). The Cornhuskers are giving up just 16.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – Minnesota Pass-Catchers. Four options to choose from, all relatively similar in projection and cost. Le’Meke Brockington leads the team in targets (33), receptions (23) and has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games. He’s the preferred option. Javon Tracy is second in targets and receptions, while leading the Gophers in routes run. Jalen Smith is the upside shot, with a 38% catch rate (yuck) but averages 21.2 YPC with a 16.8 aDOT. Tight end Jameson Geers leads the team in touchdown (3), while Nebraska is allowing 8.5 FPPG to the position this season. Max one Minnesota pass-catcher per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State vs. Utah State
- Point-Spread: Utah St -3.5
- O/U Total: 64.5
- Implied Score: Utah St 34 – SJSU 30.5
- Weather: 51 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
