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South Florida vs. Memphis
- Point-Spread: USF -5
- O/U Total: 64
- Implied Score: USF 34.5 – Mem 29.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 41% rain / 11 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($9,000) Brown captains the No. 7 scoring offense in the country that is steamrolling AAC opponents lately, averaging 57 PPG during this four-game win streak. In that stretch, Brown is averaging 38 FPPG, with multiple 100-yard rushing performances on the ground and is our highest projected player on the slate. Normally, we’d be cautious with Brown facing a Memphis defense that was previously allowing 14 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, but the Tigers just gave up three touchdown passes to a backup QB in last week’s shocking loss to UAB.
Fade – RBs. Still a three-man backfield with Nykahi Davenport, Sam Franklin and Alvon Isaac, that also splits carries with Byrum Brown who is the team’s leading rusher by over 200 yards. Sure, one of the three could pop a long run, but this Memphis defense is stout against the run, ranked first in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Keshaun Singleton ($4,400) Singleton’s impact in the passing game has fallen off since the first couple weeks of the season, and has taken a backseat to Jeremiah Koger, but does still lead the team in routes run and second in targets (33). If Chas Nimrod returns, we’re less interested in Singleton as it will become a three-man rotation at boundary receiver.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Koger ($4,700) The freshman has been the best USF receiver the last three weeks with 259 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If Chas Nimrod continues to miss games due to injury, that boosts Koger’s stock even further.
Best of the Rest – TE Jonathan Echols ($3,200) Memphis gives up around 12-13 FPPG this season to opposing tight ends and Echols has caught a touchdown passes in three of the four games during this current USF win streak. WR Christian Neptune ($3,100) is cheap for a player that is third on the team in targets (31), but splits time in the slot with WR Mudia Reuben ($3,300) which negates both players.
Injury Notes – WR Chas Nimrod (questionable), RB Cartevious Norton (out)
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham ($5,800) Team leader in targets (37), receptions ($29) and yards, with five of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns this season. No other Memphis pass-catcher has more than one receiving TD. USF allows around 49 FPPG to opposing WR rooms because opponents have been in a trailing position so much this season. Braham is in play, regardless of who the Memphis QB is on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamari Hawkins ($3,500) or WR Marcello Bussey ($3,200) Hawkins and Bussey are cheap and on the field, which is the best compliment we can give them here because neither has caught a touchdown pass yet this season. Hawkins does have a 100-yard performance against Tulsa in Week 6 and has been incredibly efficient with an 82% catch rate and zero drops on 27 targets.
Pivot Play – RB Greg Desrosiers ($7,600) or RB Sutton Smith ($6,500) Not the type of matchup where you can stack the Memphis backfield, as USF ranks 11th in stuff rate and 27th in rush D success rate. Desrosiers is the better play of the two as the team’s lead back the last several weeks, and he’s getting increasingly involved in the passing game with 10 catches on 10 targets in the last two weeks. Memphis may lean on the run a bit more if starting a freshman QB on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – QBs. We’ll see here, because as of Tuesday writing this, Brendon Lewis is considered day-to-day after leaving last week’s contest with an injury. Freshman AJ Hill, the highest rated QB recruit in program history, came on in relief of Lewis and threw for 175 yards and a touchdown. USF is last in the AAC in yards allowed per game through the air, but that includes a ton of garbage time yards with the game already in hand in favor of the Bulls. I’d probably look for other QB options on the slate here.
Injury Notes – QB Brendon Lewis (questionable)
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: OU -4.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: OU 28.5 – Miss 24
- Weather: 63 degrees / 48% rain / 11 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($6,900) I don’t love anyone from this game from a fantasy standpoint, but Lacy gets top billing for his consistency, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in every game this season. The issue is the Oklahoma defense, which may have their own Conner Stallions according to Lane Kiffin, as the Sooners are 4th in stuff rate and 2nd nationally in rush D success rate this season. Lacy is a lineup filler at best, and not a priority.
Bargain Bin – Pass-Catchers. They’re all attainable at salary but how interested should we be in one from a team where no player has more than 20% target share on the season. Five different Ole Miss WR/TEs have between 286-400 receiving yards. WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,600) is trending upwards the most of anyone, with 60 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($8,800) You’ll see the same argument for John Mateer below and with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. If you’re spending up for a QB on the slate, it’s easily Byrum Brown. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 6.9 FPPG against the Sooners this season. It’s unlikely to happen, but the fact that Austin Simmons is now healthy too is giving me pause on playing Chambliss for the rest of the year. One bad half, and will Lane Kiffin be tempted at making a QB switch?
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($5,600) Sategna continues to see the vast majority of targets for the Sooners in the slot, now with double-digit targets in three of his last four games with four touchdowns in that span. Slot receivers have done work against this Ole Miss secondary the last two games with Georgia’s Zachariah Branch and Washington State’s Tony Freeman combining for 17 receptions.
Fade – QB John Mateer ($8,900) The hand is said to be improving according to Mateer, but his play on the field has suffered, scoring just 16 combined fantasy points over the last two weeks. Gunner Stockton had a career performance against the Rebels last week, but prior to that, Ole Miss was only giving up 16 FPPG to quarterbacks. There’ better options at cheaper salaries.
Bargain Bin – WR Javonnie Gibson ($3,500) Season-highs for Gibson last week with five receptions (only 24 yards) on six targets, while playing 86% of the team’s snaps. Keontez Lewis is questionable for Saturday, and his return would put a damper on Gibson’s viability.
Pivot Play – Tory Blaylock ($5,600) Blaylock had his best outing of the season against South Carolina, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts. He’ll still be the starter if and when Jovantae Barnes returns, but it would help if Barnes were out again on Saturday. The advanced stats hate the Ole Miss run D, ranked 122nd in stuff rate, 126th in success rate and 87th in explosive run plays allowed.
Best of the Rest – WR Deion Burks ($4,500) Burks still leads the team in routes run, and is out there for almost every offensive snap, but he’s given way to Sategna as the WR1. Outside receivers just don’t hold as much value as slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s system. 40 or fewer receiving yards in five of his last six games with an aDOT of just 8.2 yards. Oklahoma is not pushing the ball downfield, particularly with Mateer’s hand injury, and Burks doesn’t get the target volume.
Injury Notes – WR Keontez Lewis (questionable), RB Jovantae Barnes (questionable)
Kansas State vs. Kansas
- Point-Spread: KU -2.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: KU 29.5 – KSU 27
- Weather: 58 degrees / 50% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
