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Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State
- Point-Spread: Ark St -2.5
- O/U Total: 62.5
- Implied Score: Ark St 32.5 – GSU 30
- Weather: 67 degrees / 28% rain / 12 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – WR Camden Brown ($6,300) The former Auburn transfer has now scored double-digit fantasy points in all seven games played this season with double the amount of receiving yards as the next closest Georgia Southern receiver. Not to mention over half of the team’s receiving touchdowns (8) on the season. IF you wanted a reason to fade Brown against consensus, Arkansas State has only allowed one receiver this season to surpass 100 yards in a game.
Fade – David Mbadinga ($4,500) I’d argue there is not one running back you should play below $5.2k. Most are RB2s or RB3s on teams that don’t run the ball particularly well.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Sanders ($4,300) Sanders is Georgia Southern’s WR3 with 20 receptions on 33 targets for the season. Just twice as he surpassed 40 receiving yards in a game, so he’s far from a great play, but Sanders is on the field all the time. The senior has played almost 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – QB JC French ($7,100) There’s usually a better chance than not you’re going to hate yourself afterwards when rostering French after he throws three interceptions and scores 10 fantasy points which he’s entirely capable of doing. But he is coming off his best performance of the season last week with four combined touchdowns and over 300 yards of total offense against Georgia State. Arkansas State is a step up from Georgia State defensively but are still giving up around 28 FPPG to opposing QBs for the season.
Best of the Rest – WR Dalen Cobb ($5,400) Cobb actually has more targets (58) this season than Camden Brown but is not targeted downfield with just an 8.9 YPC average and 6.4 aDOT. Georgia Southern doesn’t rotate at WR so any of the three starting options are playable. RB OJ Arnold ($6,100) is very similar to JC French in that he can get you 30 points or 6 points depending on the week, and there truly is no predictability in it. Arkansas State is 112th in rush D success rate, 56th in stuff rate, 103rd in limiting rushing explosiveness and giving up around 30 FPPG to opposing backfields. Matchup dictates Arnold being a possible option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas: State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chauncy Cobb ($4,600) All three Arkansas State receivers are viable on the slate, but Cobb gets top billing because of his salary being $2k cheaper than WR Corey Rucker ($6,600) despite having an identical projection. The Red Wolves have practically ditched the run game since Ja’Quez Cross was announced out for the season due to injury, throwing 40+ times in three of the last four games. Cobb has been a steady presence in the slot, with seven or more receptions in four of the last five games. Stacking Cobb and Rucker together is a GPP option with the increased passing volume for ASU.
Pivot Play – RBs. The best runner for Arkansas State since the Ja’Quez Cross injury has been quarterback Jaylen Raynor, so this is undoubtedly a major risk possibly rostering RB Kenyon Clay ($5,800) or RB Devin Spencer ($4,600). The matchup indicates we must consider both players against arguably the worst run defense in the country. It’s been mildly improved in the last two games, but the Eagles still allowed a combined 348 yards and five scores to Southern Miss and Georgia State. Opposing backfields are averaging close to 50 fantasy points per game against GSU this season. Clay is preferred even at the higher price point as he’s frequently involved in the pass game, with 24 receptions on 26 targets this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaylen Raynor ($8,400) This matchup suits Raynor perfectly because Georgia Southern struggles to defend the run and the pass equally. We like that Raynor has been on the move the last two games with double-digit rushing attempts and would be shocked if he didn’t make it three straight games given the opponent. WR Hunter Summers ($5,000) should not be priced above Chauncy Cobb, but has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. Arkansas State does not rotate at wide receiver so any one of Summers, Cobb or Rucker are options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -30
- O/U Total: 46
- Implied Score: Mia 38 – Stan 8
- Weather: 80 degrees / 30% rain / 20 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR CJ Williams ($5,100) Normally this would be a full-team fade for Stanford when looking at the Vegas lines. But projections / salaries have several of these players as potential options, leading with Williams who has posted three 100-yard receiving performances in the last four weeks. Those that thought Stanford would deploy a ground and pound style of offensive play under the interim coaching staff were mistaken, as the Cardinal are up to 49th nationally in pass play rate, with 40+ passing attempts in two of the last three games.
Fade – QB Ben Gulbranson ($6,000) Nope, nope, nope. Dr. Gulbranson is not in the queue with an implied team total of only eight points with 20+ MPH winds expected.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,500) Don’t look so bad after all having Roush as a preseason top 15 fantasy tight end. Roush has been another benefactor of the pass volume increase over the last month, with almost 200 receiving yards on 17 receptions in the last three games. Miami has not defended the tight end position well, allowing around 12 FPPG.
Pivot Play – RB Cole Tabb ($4,800) Starting running back Micah Ford has been ruled out for Saturday after suffering an injury against Florida State last week. Tabb came on in relief to rush for 107 yards and a touchdown on 28 attempts. The game script will likely not be in favor of Stanford like it was a week ago, so don’t expect 28 attempts, but Tabb will undoubtedly be the team’s RB1 on Saturday night.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryce Farrell ($3,100) Farrell plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps each week and is the nominal third option in the passing game behind Williams and Roush. He’s had some spike weeks, including 135 yards and a touchdown against Virginia earlier in the year. Team leader at 19.5 yards per catch with a 15.8 aDOT.
Injury Notes – RB Micah Ford (out)
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($6,100) We’ll see what the weather is like pregame to see how much we’d like to invest in any Miami receivers but have to side with the Canes’ best offensive player by a significant margin. Toney put on a show last week in the comeback attempt vs. Louisville with 135 yards and nine receptions on 11 targets, giving him consecutive 100-yard performances in as many weeks. Stanford’s secondary is the weakness of the defense, ranking 99th in pass D success rate and allowing a combined 49 fantasy points per week to opposing WR groups.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($5,200) Brown should be sub-$4k at this point and closer to min pricing as he’s a non-factor in the offense since Jordan Lyle made his return. 11 rushing attempts in the last two weeks, resulting in a combined 28 yards on the ground.
Pivot Play – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,700) The weather + last week’s results = Miami making a concerted effort this week to get more out of the run game that averaged just 2.6 YPC vs. Louisville. Stanford is an adequate run defense, ranked 6th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground, but are 114th in rush D success rate. Fletcher should get 15+ touches on Saturday as Miami keeps the ball out of Carson Beck’s hands after last week’s catastrophe.
Best of the Rest – WR CJ Daniels ($5,300) We’ve had some folks question why Daniels projects so highly every week. Well, the Canes only throw to two receivers for the most part, with Daniels / Toney combining for 54% of the team’s receiving production and 8 of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Probably wouldn’t play both Miami receivers as they could get scripted out of the game if Miami is up big, but having one of Toney or Daniels works.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M vs. LSU
- Point-Spread: A&M -2.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: A&M 25.5 – LSU 23
- Weather: 75 degrees / 50% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
