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Central Florida vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -4.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Bay 32.5 – UCF 28
- Weather: 61 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($5,800) Baylor ranks 15th among 16 teams in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground and 103rd in rush D success rate. Backfields are averaging around 32.2 combined fantasy points against the Bears this season. Having exposure to one of the UCF running backs makes sense on the slate and not breaking the bank for either.
Fade – WR Marcus Burke ($3,100) Burke’s playing time has diminished over the last month, giving way for true freshman WR Waden Charles ($3,400) who has essentially taken his spot in the starting lineup. Rostering any UCF receiver is not a requirement by any stretch, but Charles is preferred over Burke.
Bargain Bin – WR DJ Black ($3,200) or WR Duane Thomas ($4,400) If wanting to play a UCF wide receiver (not a necessity), Black or Thomas would be the top choices. Thomas, a former Charlotte transfer, leads the team in targets (44), receptions (30) and yards (316), while Black is the top deep threat, averaging 14.1 YPC and a 14.7 aDOT. Black is also the team leader in routes run. Max one UCF receiver per lineup.
Pivot Play – RB Jaden Nixon ($4,400) UCF seems content on trotting out Myles Montgomery as the starter, but Nixon has been exponentially better on a per carry basis with double the amount of rushing touchdowns (6) and averaging 12.5 yards per carry. In fairness to the Baylor run defense, for as bad as they’ve been as a group, the Bears are 24th in limiting explosive run plays with opponents having just nine carries of 20+ yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,200) 18-point projection at this salary is fine but probably want to have a few Baylor pieces on the other side for a game stack is the preferred strategy. The Bears are 93rd in pass D success rate and allowing 24.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Michael Turner ($4,800) This would be dependent on if Bryson Washington plays or not, but he was moved to probable as of Wednesday while in concussion protocol. With the amount of nagging injuries Washington has dealt with this season, even at probable, it would not surprise us to see him limited or not play at all on Saturday. If we catch wind of that, the freshman running back Michael Turner likely gets the start and has looked good in the last three weeks, averaging close to six yards per carry. UCF’s run defense is below average for B12 standards, ranked 10th in yards allowed per game, 66th in success rate and 110th in explosive run plays given up.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($6,100) Through nine weeks, Trigg remains the No. 1 tight end in college fantasy football in both points scored and FPPG average. UCF has struggled somewhat to defend the position this season, allowing 83 yards to Cincinnati’s Joe Royer, 63 yards to Kansas’ Boden Groen and 36 yards with a TD to Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($9,100) UCF’s pass defense ranks atop the Big 12 in yards allowed per game through the air (146.3) and No. 8 nationally in Pro Football Focus coverage grades. The Knights haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing quarterbacks, but those are strong numbers and a possible reason to fade Robertson this week as the second-highest priced QB on the slate.
Injury Notes – RB Bryson Washington (probable)
Duke vs. Clemson
- Point-Spread: Clem -3.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Clem 30 – Duke 26.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Cooper Barkate ($5,700) Barkate has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season (in PPR formats), coming off a season-best 172 yards on 14 targets in the loss to Georgia Tech. He’s been at his best in the last month with touchdowns in three of the last four games, with the GT matchup being the only game in which he did not find the end-zone. Receivers have done well against the Clemson secondary this season, including 131 yards and a TD by SMU’s Jordan Hudson and 111 yards from Syracuse’s Johntay Cook.
Bargain Bin – WR Que’Sean Brown ($3,900) or WR Samir Hagans ($3,200) If not Barkate, we want exposure to at least one Duke receiver on the slate, for a team that attempts 36 passes a game and is an underdog to Clemson on Saturday. Hagans is really cheap for a player that leads his team in touchdowns (5), while Brown has at least three receptions in all but one game this season.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Sheppard ($6,700) Clemson is strong against the run, allowing just 3.48 YPC for the season. But again, context matters. Just one opponent – Georgia Tech – faced all season is inside the top 50 nationally in yards per game on the ground. Duke is 80th, so there’s no guarantee Sheppard finds ample running room on Saturday to hit value, but it’s not a dominant Clemson front that should scare us away. The bigger hinderance to Sheppard is RB2 Anderson Castle ($4,600) who leads the team in rushing touchdowns (6) and red zone carries (19).
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($6,400) Mensah will be a popular play on Saturday with his low salary and Duke being 23rd nationally in pass play percentage. But this might be an opportunity to pivot away from the field because how much upside does Mensah provide as a zero in the run game? Mensah’s projection of just 17 fantasy points is only marginally better than the 15.1 FPPG that Clemson allows this season to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR TJ Moore ($4,900) or WR Antonio Williams ($5,300) Moore and Williams will be expected to pick up the slack with Bryant Wesco out for the season. Moore did his part against SMU with 100+ receiving yards and two scores, while Williams now has five receptions in each of the last four games. Duke is allowing around 40 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. I’d want at least one Clemson wideout per lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Tristan Smith ($3,000) The 6-foot-5 SE Missouri State transfer came on in place of Wesco in Week 8 vs. SMU after the injury and caught three passes on four targets with a touchdown. If you recall, Smith caught the eyes of folks back in the Clemson spring game with over 100 yards receiving and did have 929 yards at the FCS level a year ago, so we’re not anticipating a significant drop off.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,500) Assuming he’s fully healthy, and he has practiced according to Dabo Swinney, Klubnik looks to be one of the better QB options for the slate. It doesn’t help that Wesco is lost for the season but also don’t see a huge drop off with the Moore, Williams and Smith trio. Duke ranks 101st in pass D success rate and 111th in explosive pass plays allowed, so the secondary is the weak spot of the defense.
Best of the Rest – RB Adam Randall ($6,900) Randall will continue to project well as he’s the “bell cow” in the Clemson backfield. But I’m fading projections and hope to gain leverage against the field as we did against SMU where Randall rushed for all of 29 yards on 10 carries. The shine has worn off on the former receiver, averaging less than four yards per carry in each of his last three games. If he beats me this week, I’ll live with it, but I’m fading the Clemson RB1. Duke ranks 28th in rush D success rate and only allows 20 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – QB Cade Klubnik (probable), WR Bryant Wesco (out)
Miami vs. SMU
- Point-Spread: Mia -9.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Mia 30 – SMU 20.5
- Weather: 60 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
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