Central Florida vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -4.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Bay 32.5 – UCF 28
- Weather: 61 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($5,800) Baylor ranks 15th among 16 teams in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground and 103rd in rush D success rate. Backfields are averaging around 32.2 combined fantasy points against the Bears this season. Having exposure to one of the UCF running backs makes sense on the slate and not breaking the bank for either.
Fade – WR Marcus Burke ($3,100) Burke’s playing time has diminished over the last month, giving way for true freshman WR Waden Charles ($3,400) who has essentially taken his spot in the starting lineup. Rostering any UCF receiver is not a requirement by any stretch, but Charles is preferred over Burke.
Bargain Bin – WR DJ Black ($3,200) or WR Duane Thomas ($4,400) If wanting to play a UCF wide receiver (not a necessity), Black or Thomas would be the top choices. Thomas, a former Charlotte transfer, leads the team in targets (44), receptions (30) and yards (316), while Black is the top deep threat, averaging 14.1 YPC and a 14.7 aDOT. Black is also the team leader in routes run. Max one UCF receiver per lineup.
Pivot Play – RB Jaden Nixon ($4,400) UCF seems content on trotting out Myles Montgomery as the starter, but Nixon has been exponentially better on a per carry basis with double the amount of rushing touchdowns (6) and averaging 12.5 yards per carry. In fairness to the Baylor run defense, for as bad as they’ve been as a group, the Bears are 24th in limiting explosive run plays with opponents having just nine carries of 20+ yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,200) 18-point projection at this salary is fine but probably want to have a few Baylor pieces on the other side for a game stack is the preferred strategy. The Bears are 93rd in pass D success rate and allowing 24.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Michael Turner ($4,800) This would be dependent on if Bryson Washington plays or not, but he was moved to probable as of Wednesday while in concussion protocol. With the amount of nagging injuries Washington has dealt with this season, even at probable, it would not surprise us to see him limited or not play at all on Saturday. If we catch wind of that, the freshman running back Michael Turner likely gets the start and has looked good in the last three weeks, averaging close to six yards per carry. UCF’s run defense is below average for B12 standards, ranked 10th in yards allowed per game, 66th in success rate and 110th in explosive run plays given up.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($6,100) Through nine weeks, Trigg remains the No. 1 tight end in college fantasy football in both points scored and FPPG average. UCF has struggled somewhat to defend the position this season, allowing 83 yards to Cincinnati’s Joe Royer, 63 yards to Kansas’ Boden Groen and 36 yards with a TD to Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($9,100) UCF’s pass defense ranks atop the Big 12 in yards allowed per game through the air (146.3) and No. 8 nationally in Pro Football Focus coverage grades. The Knights haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing quarterbacks, but those are strong numbers and a possible reason to fade Robertson this week as the second-highest priced QB on the slate.
Injury Notes – RB Bryson Washington (probable)
Duke vs. Clemson
- Point-Spread: Clem -3.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Clem 30 – Duke 26.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Cooper Barkate ($5,700) Barkate has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season (in PPR formats), coming off a season-best 172 yards on 14 targets in the loss to Georgia Tech. He’s been at his best in the last month with touchdowns in three of the last four games, with the GT matchup being the only game in which he did not find the end-zone. Receivers have done well against the Clemson secondary this season, including 131 yards and a TD by SMU’s Jordan Hudson and 111 yards from Syracuse’s Johntay Cook.
Bargain Bin – WR Que’Sean Brown ($3,900) or WR Samir Hagans ($3,200) If not Barkate, we want exposure to at least one Duke receiver on the slate, for a team that attempts 36 passes a game and is an underdog to Clemson on Saturday. Hagans is really cheap for a player that leads his team in touchdowns (5), while Brown has at least three receptions in all but one game this season.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Sheppard ($6,700) Clemson is strong against the run, allowing just 3.48 YPC for the season. But again, context matters. Just one opponent – Georgia Tech – faced all season is inside the top 50 nationally in yards per game on the ground. Duke is 80th, so there’s no guarantee Sheppard finds ample running room on Saturday to hit value, but it’s not a dominant Clemson front that should scare us away. The bigger hinderance to Sheppard is RB2 Anderson Castle ($4,600) who leads the team in rushing touchdowns (6) and red zone carries (19).
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($6,400) Mensah will be a popular play on Saturday with his low salary and Duke being 23rd nationally in pass play percentage. But this might be an opportunity to pivot away from the field because how much upside does Mensah provide as a zero in the run game? Mensah’s projection of just 17 fantasy points is only marginally better than the 15.1 FPPG that Clemson allows this season to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR TJ Moore ($4,900) or WR Antonio Williams ($5,300) Moore and Williams will be expected to pick up the slack with Bryant Wesco out for the season. Moore did his part against SMU with 100+ receiving yards and two scores, while Williams now has five receptions in each of the last four games. Duke is allowing around 40 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. I’d want at least one Clemson wideout per lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Tristan Smith ($3,000) The 6-foot-5 SE Missouri State transfer came on in place of Wesco in Week 8 vs. SMU after the injury and caught three passes on four targets with a touchdown. If you recall, Smith caught the eyes of folks back in the Clemson spring game with over 100 yards receiving and did have 929 yards at the FCS level a year ago, so we’re not anticipating a significant drop off.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,500) Assuming he’s fully healthy, and he has practiced according to Dabo Swinney, Klubnik looks to be one of the better QB options for the slate. It doesn’t help that Wesco is lost for the season but also don’t see a huge drop off with the Moore, Williams and Smith trio. Duke ranks 101st in pass D success rate and 111th in explosive pass plays allowed, so the secondary is the weak spot of the defense.
Best of the Rest – RB Adam Randall ($6,900) Randall will continue to project well as he’s the “bell cow” in the Clemson backfield. But I’m fading projections and hope to gain leverage against the field as we did against SMU where Randall rushed for all of 29 yards on 10 carries. The shine has worn off on the former receiver, averaging less than four yards per carry in each of his last three games. If he beats me this week, I’ll live with it, but I’m fading the Clemson RB1. Duke ranks 28th in rush D success rate and only allows 20 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – QB Cade Klubnik (probable), WR Bryant Wesco (out)
Miami vs. SMU
- Point-Spread: Mia -9.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Mia 30 – SMU 20.5
- Weather: 60 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($5,900) Toney is a prime example of Salary + Projection + Matchup = Top Play for the entire main slate. Underpriced at $5.9k. Projection is solid at 15.3 fantasy points. But the matchup is as good as it gets against an SMU pass defense that is allowing 51.3 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WR groups.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($4,500) The books continue to list a rushing prop for CharMar Brown each week and I continue to hammer the under until they pull it. Just 37 rushing yards combined over the last three games as the backfield depth chart is jumbled behind Mark Fletcher.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($5,100) Daniels had just eight receiving yards against Stanford last week, as he was not needed in the 42-7 blowout, but did find the end-zone for the sixth time this season. Between Daniels and Toney, the WR duo now has nine of the 12 receiving touchdowns for the Canes, and we already mentioned above how many fantasy points SMU gives up weekly to opposing WRs. Daniels and Toney are playable together in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($7,200) Not sure the price is right here for Fletcher, despite coming off his best performance of the year with 100 yards and three scores vs. Stanford last Saturday evening. SMU’s run defense is near elite, ranked third in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground and limiting the last three opponents to under 90 yards as a team. Game script does work in favor of Fletcher here as 9.5-point favorites, and he seems to have separate himself over Brown and Jordan Lyle. QB Carson Beck ($6,700) is one of the most overrated players in college football, but the price is somewhat appealing here. SMU ranks just 69th in pass D success rate and 81st in explosive pass plays allowed. QBs are averaging almost 30% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing SMU this season. I’ll have most exposure to the Miami receivers, but I can see an argument for Beck in some lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Hudson ($4,200) Tough to trust any SMU players after that UGLY offensive showing last week in the loss to Wake Forest. Hudson has been the team’s best offensive player, though, over the last month, averaging 5.75 receptions on 8.5 targets in the last four games. Most importantly, you don’t break the bank at all for Hudson at $4.2k.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($5,400) Easiest fade of the slate. Harden continues to get double-digit carries every week despite his YPC average declining rapidly, averaging less than two yards per attempt over the last two games. A matchup against what is statistically the No. 1 run defense in the ACC won’t fix those issues.
Bargain Bin – TE / WR RJ Maryland ($3,700) Could be notable, could be an afterthought, but Maryland was on the field for 68% of the offensive team snaps against Wake Forest last week – the most he’s played in a game all season. That resulted in a season-high 51 receiving yards on three targets. Miami hasn’t been great defending the tight end position this season, giving up 10.2 FPPG to the position.
Pivot Play – RB Chris Johnson Jr. ($4,300) We’d mostly advise against rostering any SMU running back in this matchup, or any matchup for that matter, as the Mustangs are now 109th in rush success rate and 111th in the country in line yards. Nothing is working. That said, revenge game narrative with Johnson being a former Miami transfer and the most explosive running back on the roster, averaging over seven yards a carry in 2025.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($8,800) There is one argument, and one argument only for playing Jennings at this salary – SMU can’t win this game without Jennings having a big day through the air. The Mustangs don’t run the ball well enough, so it’s either a big day from Jennings and the passing game or they turnover Carson Beck multiple times…both plausible.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -20.5
- O/U Total: 43.5
- Implied Score: OSU 33 – PSU 10.5
- Weather: 49 degrees / 18% rain / 11 mph winds
Penn State:
RB Kaytron Allen ($6,200) is the only offensive player that still gives a damn about this season for the Nittany Lions but can’t fathom rostering a running back against this Ohio State defense that allows just 13 FPPG to the position. Penn State is still trotting out the same collection of WRs and TEs from Week 1 – Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena, Luke Reynolds – and they’re all cheap so maybe you could fill one spot with those options. NOT recommended, though, if you can avoid it. I’ve already wagered the under on 10.5 total team points for Penn State.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,300) or WR Carnell Tate ($5,600) This just needs to be a staple in our DFS lineups from here on out with the Buckeyes on the slate. 13 of the 20 receiving touchdowns for Ohio State this season have come from Smith or Tate with nearly 61% of the team’s total receiving production. Teams can’t double both wide receivers.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,000) Peoples has played in more than four games this season, so he’s burned his redshirt, but this is a classic example of a player that will hit the transfer portal the minute the 2025 season comes to a close. In the blowout of Wisconsin last week, Peoples did not record a single rushing attempt.
Pivot Play – RB Bo Jackson ($5,500) We likely saw a defense that has given up on the season against Iowa in Week 8, allowing 245 yards on the ground to the Hawkeyes. That’s the second time in the last three games that a team has rolled up over 240 yards on the ground with three rushing scores against Penn State, who now ranks 86th in the country in rush D success rate. If Jackson isn’t getting it done on the ground, he’s also been effective in the passing game with 77 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Sayin ($9,200) This is an ugly slate at the QB position, so spending up for a high-floor option like Sayin makes some sense. The Nittany Lions are 4th in the B1G in yards allowed through the air but look at the schedule. Iowa, Northwestern, UCLA, Villanova, FIU and Nevada. Of course, the numbers will look good. Against the only good QB on the schedule, Penn State gave up 248 yards and three scores to Oregon’s Dante Moore.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- Point-Spread: ISU -4.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: ISU 27.5 – ASU 23
- Weather: 45 degrees / 3% rain / 9 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Raleek Brown ($6,800) If Arizona State can somehow keep this game close without Sam Leavitt and potentially Jordyn Tyson, expect a run-heavy script between Jeff Sims and Raleek Brown. On paper, this seemed like a bad matchup for Brown, as Iowa State is allowing just 15.3 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. But let’s dig a little deeper into their opponents. BYU – LJ Martin was injured. Colorado – no fantasy relevant RB. Cincinnati – committee. Arizona – no fantasy relevant RB. Arkansas State – no fantasy relevant RB. Arizona State should be able to run some on the Cyclones.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik McClain ($3,600) McClain must’ve read our DFS writeup last week where we talked smack about the fifth-year senior. But for good reasons as he hadn’t surpassed 20 receiving yards in a game all season despite leading the team in routes run. He shut me up with a 159-yard performance on 10 targets in the absence of Jordyn Tyson. If Tyson is in, McClain should go back to irrelevancy. If Tyson is out, McClain is an option.
Pivot Play – QB Jeff Sims ($7,400) Forget about the passing for a second, we know what Jeff Sims is capable of (and mostly not capable of) as a thrower. But 21 rushing attempts in his lone start this season against Utah is at least slightly interesting in a matchup with an Iowa State defensive scheme that typically struggles defending mobile quarterbacks. We’ve mentioned it several times this year but Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor, Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby and Colorado’s Kaidon Salter all had a good bit of success on the ground against the Cyclones.
Best of the Rest – TE Chamon Metayer ($4,700) Usage is up for Metayer with Jordyn Tyson out/limited with 115 yards on 13 targets over the last two games. Arizona State has gotten the TE position more involved in recent weeks, with backup TE Cameron Harpole ($3,000) being targeted five times in each of the last two games. WR Jaren Hamilton ($3,000) was not the next Jordyn Tyson as some predicted last week, registering just two catches, but was targeted six times. Every Arizona State pass-catcher is downgraded with Jeff Sims at QB and will be downgraded significantly if Jordyn Tyson is in the lineup, so tread carefully with exposure here.
Injury Notes – WR Jordyn Tyson (questionable), QB Sam Leavitt (out)
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Hansen ($6,400) Abu Sama did start the game against BYU last week, but Hansen was the closer, rumbling for 152 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Cougars. Arizona State is third in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground but tied for third in the conference in rushing touchdowns given up (14). Hansen being Iowa State’s top play shows how little fantasy appeal the Cyclones have this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,400) or WR Chase Sowell ($3,700) Iowa state continues to trot out primarily Eskildsen and Sowell for 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. Sowell has regressed again since his mini two-week breakout in late September with just three catches in two games. Eskildsen is the most explosive WR on the roster, averaging over 19 yards per catch with two scores in the last three games. Maximum one Iowa State pass-catcher per lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($7,600) If Becht is not getting rushing touchdowns, which is entirely unpredictable, he’s not a fantasy asset in 2025. Not that he’s regressed, but Becht simply doesn’t have the weapons in the passing game that he did a year ago. Arizona State is allowing 24.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but those that have had the biggest performances – Conner Weigman and Devon Dampier – rushed for 100+ yards on the ground. We ain’t getting that from Becht and his 0.68 YPC average.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
- Point-Spread: Lou -10
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: Lou 32 – VT 22
- Weather: 52 degrees / 5% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($7,600) We’ll chalk up last week’s night slate to bad luck. Usage was the same for Bell, targeted nine times, but failed to connect with Miller Moss, resulting in just four receptions for minimal yardage. Bell still has the highest projection of any WR on the main slate, and the second highest projection this weekend of any WR in college football behind only UConn’s Skyler Bell.
Fade – RB Keyjuan Brown ($4,600) Run-heavy script last Saturday for Louisville with the Brown’s combining for over 300 rushing yards in the win over Boston College. Virginia Tech is not the pushover that BC is defending the run, holding four of its last five opponents to under 100 yards on the ground. Based on comments from HC Jeff Brohm, it sounds as though Duke Watson will also be back this week which complicates the situation behind Isaac Brown.
Pivot Play – WR Caullin Lacy ($5,100) Bell is the undisputed WR1, but Lacy possesses a high floor particularly on DraftKings with five receptions in each of the last five games. The leading receiver in three of the last four matchups against Virginia Tech has played in the slot where Lacy runs a route 80% of the time. Cal’s Jacob de Jesus, a similar player to Lacy, caught eight passes last week against the Hokies.
Best of the Rest – WR Miller Moss ($8,600) This salary for Moss speaks to how weak of a Main Slate this is with regard to the quarterback position, and the odd pricing choices to have a QB that averages just 20 points per game as the sixth highest salary at the position. Virginia Tech is 117th in pass D success rate and 116th in explosive pass plays allowed, so Moss isn’t excluded from the QB options for the slate, but those numbers have us even more intrigued by an explosive WR1 like Chris Bell.
Injury Notes – RB Duke Watson (questionable)
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($8,200) There’s more content about the Virginia Tech head coach search than there is the matchup with Louisville. Hokie head coach James Franklin has a nice ring to it. The interim staff is clearly utilizing Drones how he should be used the last few games, minimizing putting the ball in the air and having the QB1 use his best attribute with his legs. That’s resulted in 75 fantasy points in the last two games combined. Louisville is a different animal than California and Georgia Tech, but anything goes at the QB position on this slate.
Fade – RBs. It’s a risk saying fade Virginia Tech RBs after the duo of Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart combined for over 200 rushing yards in the win over Cal. That momentum probably doesn’t continue against a Louisville defense that is only allowing 14.3 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Just one Louisville opponent this season has averaged more than four yards per carry against the Cardinals. That was coincidentally Bowling Green when the game was already out of hand.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pass volume is down the last three games, averaging just 22 attempts per game under the interim coaching staff. That means we need touchdowns from the Virginia Tech WRs to hit value…which they did against California with WR Takye Heath (2) and Ayden Greene (1). Banking on touchdowns is easier said than done against a Louisville defense that is 5th in the ACC in scoring defense. Heath has been the most impressive of the starting group for the Hokies with three TDs in the last three weeks and is cheap at $3.3k.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Florida
- Point-Spread: UGA -7.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: UGA 29 – UF 21.5
- Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,000) Georgia’s team leader in targets (44), receptions (35), yards (362) and routes run, with 17 of his 35 receptions coming in the last two games alone. We’ve seen a few slot receivers cook this Florida secondary in recent games, with Mississippi State’s Anthony Evans (11-107-0) and Texas’ DeAndre Moore Jr. (3-75-0).
Fade – RB Josh McCray ($4,100) Not going to rant here about NIL ruining the sport, but McCray had a possible cushy spot atop the Illinois RB depth chart if he would have remained in Champaign. Instead, he chased the bag and now sits a distant third behind Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier.
Bargain Bin – Secondary Pass-Catchers. With Colbie Young out for the season, you’re going to see the secondary options have a bigger role in the UGA passing game. And that was crystal clear against Ole Miss with Lawson Luckie recording three receiving touchdowns. That’s an outlier for him personally, but we’ll see the TEs more involved, London Humphreys more involved, Dillion Bell, etc. All of whom are cheap.
Pivot Play – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,000) Can’t rule out many quarterbacks on the slate, because they all range from mid to slightly above mid options. Stockton projects well at 22.8 fantasy points, but Florida has been solid against the pass, allowing just five TDs through the air all season. That includes matchups against Texas A&M, LSU, Miami,etc. who possess competent passing offenses.
Best of the Rest – RBs. It’s a committee backfield between Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, where the leader in the clubhouse for a given week is determined by health and who holds onto the football. The Florida run defense is good, holding opponents to under four yards a carry for the season, but have allowed three rushing touchdowns in three of the last four games. Having exposure to one of the UGA backs makes sense being a touchdown favorite.
Injury Notes – WR Colbie Young (out)
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Dallas Wilson ($4,400) Wilson will absolutely be in play at $4.4k and we’ll see of the status of Vernell Brown III once the SEC availability reports come out on Wednesday. Wilson has come down to Earth a bit since his breakout performance against Texas but both players have emerged as the top two receiving options in the passing game over the last month. And we want exposure here because Georgia is allowing a combined 40 fantasy points per week to opposing WR rooms.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($7,700) Lagway might be a former 5-star recruit but is a 0-star when it comes to college fantasy, not once having scored 20 fantasy points in a game this season. Georgia’s weakness defensively is against the pass, but we’ll look to the receivers for our lineup options.
Bargain Bin – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,200) A flurry of injuries among Florida WRs could make for Hansen being a solid bargain bin option, ranked third on the team in targets (29), receptions (22) and the team leader in routes run. Hansen quite literally never leaves the field on offense. WR Aidan Mizell, also questionable, could start in the slot if he’s healthy and Vernell Brown is out.
Pivot Play – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($3,200) If we get word that Brown and Mizell are out (which they are), Sturdivant moves up to second among the Florida WR pecking order. 40 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s only playable if multiple Florida WRs are out due to injury.
Best of the Rest – RB Jadan Baugh ($6,300) Baugh would be a volume play with 78 rushing attempts over his last three games due to the rash of injuries in the Florida backfield. This is just not a great matchup for the sophomore back, facing a Georgia defense that allows just 3.0 YPC for the season and only 13.8 FPPG to opposing backfields. The Dawgs held Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy to just 2.9 YPA.
Injury Notes – WR Vernell Brown (out), Aidan Mizell (out), RB Duke Clark (questionable), RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out)
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
- Point-Spread: TT -7
- O/U Total: 53
- Implied Score: TT 30 – KSU 23
- Weather: 53 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Koby Williams ($5,300) or RB Cameron Dickey ($7,800) Somehow, there’s just not much fantasy appeal to the top ranked scoring offense in the Big 12 at 43.6 PPG. Neither running back for the Red Raiders has been overly impressive in the last two games, but that’s been with Will Hammond at quarterback. Behren Morton being back in the lineup should aid the offense overall, in particular the running game which had been steamrolling opponents prior to his injury. Kansas State is only giving up 21 combined fantasy points to opposing backfields, so you don’t want to have an abundance of exposure on this duo either.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,600) Morton only projects for 18 fantasy points in this matchup, but with the limited amount of viable QB options, he’s in play at $6.6k. Kansas State is allowing 20.7 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s a decent matchup. The argument against Morton here, and potentially in favor of having a Tech running back – Will Hammond being out for the year. There’s no longer a capable backup for the Red Raiders, so how much more might Tech lean on the run game offensively this week and the rest of the year?
Best of the Rest – WRs. We all know the drill by now, correct? You’re going to put a Texas Tech receiver in your lineup, and it will be one of the other two the go off for 100 yards and two scores. Those are the rules. It’s an equal target share distribution between the trio of Tech starters in Coy Eakin, Reggie Virgil and Caleb Douglas. Boundary receivers seem to have found the most success against the Wildcats this season – Eric McAlister had 100+ two touchdowns in his matchup vs. K-State – which would favor Virgil and Douglas here.
Injury Notes – QB Will Hammond (out), TE Terrance Carter (questionable)
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – TE Garrett Oakley ($4,600) If Tech deploys similar coverages as they did against the Kansas Jayhawks a few weeks back, Oakley could be in for a helluva game. Against KU, Tech allowed all of the underneath stuff to avoid having Emmanuel Henderson beat them over the top, leading to Boden Groen having a career day with 13 receptions and a touchdown on 14 targets. Oakley is the better player of the two and had been on a hot streak prior to last week with four receiving touchdowns in Week’s 5-7. WR Jayce Brown ($5,000) is tough not to consider a top play as well at just $5k after his 160-yard performance last week against Kansas. WRs have had some success against this Tech defense, namely Jordyn Tyson (129 yards) and Cam Pickett (6-82-0) with most opponents playing from a trailing position.
Fade – We lay out reasoning below as to why Avery Johnson and Joe Jackson are somewhat playable, but the backfield duo is closer to fades against this defense. Texas Tech is allowing just 13.2 FPPG to quarterbacks and 13.1 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,700) KSU has gone to mostly 12 personnel with two tight ends over three-wide sets as Jerand Bradley’s production has fallen off. Tibbs is the team leader in routes run this season, and second in targets (51), receptions (32) and touchdowns (3).
Pivot Play – QB Avery Johnson ($6,800) We see a Kansas State / Texas Tech matchup and would normally think shootout. Not the case this year, as Tech is elite defensively and KSU’s defensive unit has been improving throughout the season. Johnson gets considered here because the QB options on this slate are disgusting, $6.8k is relatively cheap, and he can run. BUT not a single quarterback this season has scored 20 fantasy points on this Texas Tech defense.
Best of the Rest – RB Joe Jackson ($6,100) We’re not expecting Dylan Edwards to play this week or the rest of the season at this point. This is a rough matchup against a Tech defense that hasn’t allowed one team all season long average more than four yards per carry in a game. Jackson is only viable because he could hit value based on volume, with 47 combined attempts in the last two games. No other KSU running back has carried the ball more than three times in the past two games.
Injury Notes – RB Dylan Edwards (doubtful)
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
- Point-Spread: ND -28.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: ND 43 – BC 14.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 23% rain / 13 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiah Love ($9,000) Looks like the weather will be dry, but coolish conditions with 15-25 MPH winds expected. Sounds like another Jeremiyah Love game who needs a big performance to keep up with some of the QBs in the Heisman race. BC just allowed 200+ yards to Isaac Brown last week and are now dead last in the ACC in yards given up on the ground.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Raridon ($4,100) Raridon has been hit or miss this season, but is still an integral part of the offense, ranked third in routes run and plays well over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps. Boston College has been very leaky over the middle of the field, allowing 16.7 FPPG to tight ends this season and we could see shorter distance passes being thrown if the winds interfere.
Pivot Play – RB Jadarian Price ($6,600) We expect an extremely run-heavy script with the Irish being favored by 28.5 points, and our projections only separate Price and Love by just 10 rushing yards. It would not surprise us to see this matchup play out similarly to the USC game two weeks ago with the Notre Dame duo combining for 62 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB CJ Carr ($8,300) Boston College allows 26 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so the pass defense is leaky, but how much will Carr throw in a game where the Irish are 4-TD favorites and windy conditions? 19-point projection at this salary doesn’t present much upside. If you subscribe to the thought that the weather could limit Notre Dame’s ability with the deep ball, WR Jordan Faison ($4,800) is the best of the three ND receiver options as he’s the preferred target for the Irish on the short to intermediate routes.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Greathouse (questionable)
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Lewis Bond ($4,200) Bond is priced up slightly from last week’s night slate after finding the end-zone for the first time this season against Louisville. While the upside is limited, Bond is still too cheap for a player that is 13th in the country in targets (70) and 6th in receptions (55).
Fade – QB Grayson James ($6,000) We know James scored 22 fantasy points last week against a pretty good Louisville defense, but tough to justify playing a QB with a 16-point projection on a main slate. The Notre Dame defense has allowed three passing touchdowns in the last four games combined.
Bargain Bin – TE Kaelen Chudzinski ($3,000) or TE Jeremiah Franklin ($3,500) The BC tight ends were the stars of the show against Louisville last Saturday, combining for 135 yards and two scores on 15 targets. Chudzinski is not just a byproduct of nepotism with his father on the BC coaching staff; the freshman has been legitimately good this season with three touchdowns in his last four games played.
Pivot Play – WR Reed Harris ($4,500) Harris does not leave the field, playing 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the last five games. Only had 53 receiving yards against Louisville last week but was targeted 10 times in what should be a similar game script. Team-high 18.1-yard aDOT.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan McDonald ($5,600) McDonald has played well in relief of Turbo Richard with over 200 rushing yards over the last two games. If Richard is out again on Saturday, maybe we consider McDonald in this spot as he’s getting the lion’s share of the rushing attempts in the BC backfield the last two games. That said, Notre Dame’s run defense has been elite over the last three games, limiting Boise State, NC State and USC to under three yards a carry.
Injury Notes – RB Turbo Richard (questionable), QB Grayson James (questionable)
Indiana vs. Maryland
- Point-Spread: IU -21.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: USF 36.5 – MD 15
- Weather: 58 degrees / 4% rain / 11 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($7,100) Sarratt didn’t pay off last week but did still find the end-zone in the blowout of UCLA. He’s been far more consistent this season than in his junior year, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in five of the last seven games played. Maryland has also allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of the last two games, both of which play on the boundary as Sarratt does.
Bargain Bin – WR EJ Willliams ($4,400) Indiana doesn’t rotate at all at wide receiver and Williams is coming off the best performance of his career, scoring 31 fantasy points with 109 receiving yards and two scores vs. UCLA.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($5,900) Revenge game narrative with Hemby facing his former team. Hemby’s workload has been relatively consistent over the last month and a half with 14 or more carries in four of the last five games. Overall, the Maryland run defense has been slightly above average, but has fallen off during this losing streak, allowing six yards a carry to Nebraska and UCLA in the last two games. I’d be surprised if Cignetti doesn’t get Hemby into the end-zone at least once against his old team. While it’s been a 60-40 split in rushing distribution with RB Kaelon Black ($4,800), we prefer Hemby by a decent margin. Not only the narrative, but the fact that Hemby holds a 31-18 red-zone carry advantage over Black.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($9,200) If playing Mendoza, it is imperative at least one Indiana receiver is in your lineup, and possibly two in GPPs with the Indiana QB being the highest-priced option on the slate. A 25.7-point projection at this salary doesn’t necessitate playing Mendoza here, but there’s a few narratives working in his favor as well. (1) We’re on Heisman watch, so the coaching staff could look to bolster his numbers whenever possible. (2) Curt Cignetti doesn’t care about your feelings and will run up the score on opponents. WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,600) is the pivot play away from Sarratt if you can’t spend up to get the Indiana WR1, scoring double digit fantasy points in all but two games this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Shaleek Knotts ($3,400) Maryland can’t run the football effectively and are three-touchdown underdogs. Conventional wisdom suggests there will be a high number of passes thrown by the Terps. We wouldn’t overly invest in any Maryland pass-catcher, but Knotts has been the best of the bunch, leading the team in targets (48), yards (421) and five of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns. Knotts had just three receptions against UCLA in Week 8 but was targeted 13 times on the night.
Fade – RBs. The worst rushing offense in the Big Ten facing the No. 2 rush defense in the conference. It’s been Nolan Ray one week, RB DeJuan Williams ($4,700) the other. That unpredictable situation in a terrible matchup is an easy fade. If Williams makes it into the winning lineup, it’s because of his role as a pass-catcher with 12 receptions on 13 targets over the last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,300) Smith is a lineup filler if you have $3.3k leftover, but far from a priority play. Smith does lead the team in routes run this season and is third in receptions (27).
Pivot Play – WR Jalil Farooq ($4,300) or TE Dorian Fleming ($5,400) Makes more sense to use your lineup budget on Knotts here as he’s cheaper and been more effective than either Farooq or Fleming of late. Indiana is allowing just 4.2 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Malik Washington ($6,300) Maryland’s three-game losing streak has resulted in an increase in passing volume, with Washington averaging nearly 45 attempts over the last three games. Good for the Maryland receivers, not so much for the Maryland offense or Washington. Indiana allows just 13 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia vs. California
- Point-Spread: UVA -5
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: UVA 29.5 – Cal 24.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Trell Harris ($3,700) and / or WR Jahmal Edrine ($3,800) The UVA duo weren’t the smash plays people thought they might be last week, but both were relatively productive with 10 of the team’s 20 receptions, and each player accumulating over 70 receiving yards. Both remain too cheap on DraftKings, especially if Cam Ross is out like he was against North Carolina. The only downside here is that Chandler Morris has flat out bad over the last month or so.
Fade – QB Chandler Morris ($8,400) Morris doesn’t look 100% healthy and his performances over the last month have shown that. Not to mention he left the North Carolina game at one point as well. Only playable in game stacks at this salary but preferred not playable at all. This doesn’t feel like a shootout-type matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Kameron Courtney ($3,000) All dependent on if Cam Ross plays or not. Courtney was on the field 77% of the time against North Carolina and was targeted four times, resulting in just one catch for minimal yardage. If Ross is in, Courtney is not in the equation.
Best of the Rest – RB J’Mari Taylor ($7,500) The UVA offense hasn’t been the same over the last month, whether that’s a result of a Chandler Morris injury, or defenses catching up to this mediocre coaching staff. That applies to Taylor who has been averaging less than four yards a carry in the last four weeks. Volume is still good, and he’s finding the end-zone, but this is not a priority play at $7.5k. That said, Cal is 14th in the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground with at least two rushing scores given up in each of the last four games. Just wish Taylor was a tad bit cheaper.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Ross (probable), RB Xavier Brown (out)
California:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob de Jesus ($6,400) 10 or more targets in five of the last six games for the Cal slot receiver, who now has 20 combined receptions in the last two weeks. JDJ should be prioritized on DraftKings, as he’s only averaging 9.3 YPC for the season. Cal faces a Virginia defense that is giving up around 40 combined fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Bargain Bin – Secondary Pass-Catching options. Cal runs a tight rotation at receiver so both WR Trond Grizzell ($4,000) and WR Jordan King ($3,200) are playable. Grizzell’s the team’s deep threat, averaging over 17 YPC with a 16.0 aDOT, so he could be good for a splash play or two. TE Mason Mini ($4,200) is a top 20 fantasy tight end this season, playing over 95% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last month.
Pivot Play – QB Jaron Sagopolutele ($6,900) The pass defense for Virginia has been adequate, ranking 41st in success rate and just 20 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. But that’s been a product of the quarterbacks faced in 2025. The best fantasy quarterback UVA has faced this season is Florida State’s Thomas Castellanos – the only QB to rank inside the top 50 at the position. JKS has hit the freshman wall, failing to score more than 18 fantasy points since mid-September, but this might be his best opportunity to break that streak.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendrick Raphael ($6,500) Raphael did it again this week, rushing for 70 yards and three touchdowns against Virginia Tech. And again, the volume distribution is what we absolutely love, as the backup RB for Cal had just two rushing attempts. Raphael isn’t a top play this week because the UVA defense is strong against the run, allowing just 3.68 YPC for the season, but he could hit value based on volume alone.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt vs. Texas
- Point-Spread: Tex -2.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Tex 24 – Vand 21.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Fade – QB Diego Pavia ($7,800) Danger spot for a ranked opponent in Vandy, with an early kickoff, going on the road to Texas. This might be an entertaining “real” football game, but a snoozer of a matchup from a fantasy perspective and don’t need to have any pieces of this game in your lineups. Hence, why there is no top play listed. Against the two best defenses Pavia has faced this season, he scored fewer than 15 fantasy points versus Missouri and Alabama. Texas only allows 13.4 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Pivot Play – RB Makhilyn Young ($4,100) Tough to justify playing a backup running back against a formidable defense on a main slate, but Young has been the best RB in the Vanderbilt backfield the last two weeks. 80+ rushing yards in each of the last two games on a combined 10 carries. Realistically, neither Young or RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,900) are of any interest to us against the No. 1 run defense in the SEC.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. Week 5 was the last time a Vanderbilt receiver or tight end had more than 60 yards receiving against Utah State. The Longhorns have allowed over 600 passing yards in the last two games against Blake Shapen and Cutter Boley, though, so there’s potential for someone to pop here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Emmett Mosley ($3,300) Much of this hinges on if Arch Manning plays or not, as he’s listed as questionable as of Wednesday evening while in concussion protocol. Mosley is the top play as he caught two touchdowns last week in the win over Mississippi State, including the game winner from Matthew Caldwell in overtime. Caldwell would start in Manning’s place if he didn’t clear concussion protocol. Is Mosley WR1 for the Longhorns now moving forward?
Fade – RBs. Split backfield for a team that can’t run the football, facing a Vanderbilt defense that is giving up just 19.6 FPPG to running backs.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($3,200) Vanderbilt has struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 13.7 FPPG to the position, scoring around 21% more than their seasonal average when facing the Dores. Endries had his best game since Week 2, with four receptions (minimal yardage) on five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Wingo ($6,200) I know Wingo leads the team in targets, catches and yards, but don’t understand this massive discrepancy in pricing between he and the other Texas receivers each week. Wingo did have 184 yards last week against MSU, but continues to be incredibly inefficient with a 41% catch rate and two drops vs. the Bulldogs. Vanderbilt will allow some pass plays over the top of the secondary, ranked 87th in explosive pass plays allowed with 11 passes of 25+ yards or more given up this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Parker Livingstone ($3,200) or WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($3,600) For the same reasons listed above with Mosley and Endries. Cheap options to fill out a lineup, against a defense that is 11th in the SEC in yards allowed per game through the air and gives up around 37 FPPG to wide receivers. Everyone is downgraded if Matthew Caldwell gets the start.
Injury Notes – QB Arch Manning (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
- WR Chris Bell, Louisville
- A Notre Dame Running Back
- WR Dallas Wilson, Florida
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Dallas Wilson, Florida
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
- RB Kendrick Raphael, California
- RB J’Mari Taylor, Virginia
