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Kentucky vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: Aub -11
- O/U Total: 45
- Implied Score: Aub 28 – UK 17
- Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Kendrick Law ($3,200) Kentucky receiver as a top play? In this economy? Yes, especially when the Wildcats throw it 40 times a game as they’ve done in the last three weeks. The Alabama transfer leads the team in every receiving category, coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season against Tennessee on just two receptions.
Fade – RB Dante Dowdell ($4,900) Seth McGowan sat out last week, and Dowdell still wasn’t the Kentucky running back that finished with the most fantasy points. That belonged to Jason Patterson who caught seven passes on eight targets vs. Tennessee. McGowan is expected back and would be the only Kentucky RB even remotely playable. This Auburn run defense is legitimately one of the best groups in the country. No. 1 in the nation in EPA per run play. No. 1 in non-sack yards per rush allowed and No. 2 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR DJ Miller ($3,700) Miller enters the starting lineup with Ja’Mori Maclin out due to injury, and has already put up the best performance by a Kentucky receiver in what seems like a decade with 120 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. I’d say he’s earned a starting role moving forward over someone like Hardley Gilmore who posted zero receiving yards with three catches on six targets. How does that happen?
Pivot Play – QB Cutter Boley ($7,100) Boley threw as many touchdowns last week (5) as he did the prior four starts combined. Passing volume has been up the last three games and would expect that should continue with how good Auburn is defending the run. Not the case against the pass, as the Tigers are 89th in pass D success rate and 83rd in giving up explosive pass plays. Boley isn’t as good a play as last week vs. Tennessee, but he’s in the conversation.
Best of the Rest – TE Willie Rodriguez ($3,300) Shot in the dark play as Kentucky plays a ton of 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. Rodriguez has caught at least two passes in all but one game this season.
Injury Notes – WR Ja’Mori Maclin (out), RB Seth McGowan (probable)
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($7,000) Cobb has been awesome in this two-week stretch since Damari Alston left the team, rushing for 111 yards vs. Missouri, followed by 153 yards on 28 attempts in the win over Arkansas last week. Cobb still is Auburn’s top play, but this comes with a caveat. UConn transfer Durell Robinson is finally 100% healthy and “full-go” according to Hugh Freeze. Unlikely Robinson factors in greatly to Cobb’s workload, but that’s another RB that could garner some carries on Saturday. Kentucky’s run defense has been good the last two games, holding Texas and Tennessee to a combined 153 rushing yards.
Fade – WR Cam Coleman ($6,700) Coleman isn’t an outright fade, but he has two factors working against him. (1) The quarterback position isn’t fixed with Ashton Daniels as the starter. (2) While upgraded to probable, Coleman has been limited all week by the ankle injury he suffered against Arkansas.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody on Auburn below $5.5k is playable.
Pivot Play – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,000) Every inclination is that Daniels will start against Kentucky this week. Think Jackson Arnold 2.0 in terms of style if for some reason you haven’t heard of Daniels prior to this. Will run, can’t throw. Hugh Freeze stated that both QBs received first-team reps throughout the week, so the concern is a possible two-QB system which would kill all lineup hopes that include Daniels.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,300) Singleton is the healthier of the two starting receivers. While the 78% catch rate is impressive this year, Singleton needs volume to hit big, and he just isn’t seeing it, averaging just 6.1 targets per game. That won’t cut it when he’s averaging 9.7 YPC with a 4.9 aDOT. Kentucky is giving up around 37 FPPG to opposing team WRs and just allowed nearly 400 yards through the air to Tennessee last week.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Coleman (probable), Malcolm Simmons (probable)
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
- Point-Spread: OU -3
- O/U Total: 57
- Implied Score: OU 30 – Tenn 27
- Weather: 56 degrees / 19% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna III ($6,900) Sategna isn’t the $3k bargain that he used to be earlier in the year, but still the top play for the Sooners because slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s system are undefeated. He’s heating up too, now with double-digit targets in four of the last five games, with the fifth game being against Kent State where the starters came out in the third quarter. Sategna still managed two touchdowns against Kent State too. You can slice and dice this Tennessee defense in any fashion, but particularly in the secondary, where the Vols allow almost 50 fantasy points a week to wide receivers.
Fade – RB Tory Blaylock ($5,600) Just when Blaylock was trending towards RB1 status, he has the rug pulled out from under him, giving way to RB Xavier Robinson ($4,800) who rushed for 109 yards and two scores vs. Ole Miss last week. The entire OU run game is trending upwards, rushing for 150+ yards in each of the last two games, and we see the Sooners riding the hot hand on Saturday with Robinson over Blaylock. The coaching staff confirmed as much this week, going so far as to say he might even be the focal point.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,000) Burks’ decline is a product of the system – outside receivers aren’t preferred in Arbuckle’s system. But Tennessee is so bad on the back end of the defense that two WRs are potentially viable in the same lineup this week. Burks leads all OU receivers in routes run, playing 88% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB John Mateer ($8,600) Any QB is playable against this Tennessee secondary, just as we saw last week with Kentucky’s Cutter Boley throwing 5 touchdown passes – more than he had in the previous four starts combined. We should get decent ownership leverage if playing Mateer given his own recent performances.
Best of the Rest – WR Javonnie Gibson ($3,600) Gibson will get that start again on Saturday night with Keontez Lewis again doubtful this week. Just one reception on four targets for the Arkansas Pine-Bluff transfer but has played over 90% of snaps the last two weeks.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes (questionable), RB Taylor Tatum (questionable), WR Keontez Lewis (doubtful)
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,700) Tough to go against what is working, even if the matchup isn’t the best. Bishop was limited to just 48 yards on 14 carries against Kentucky after consecutive 100-yard performances but still manages to find the end zone twice in the win. He’s been the hot hand of the Tennessee offense and is likely to see lower ownership because of the strong OU front. Working on Bishop’s favor is the Sooner defense struggling this season with missed tackles, while Bishop’s 4.08 yards after contact is the highest among Tennessee backs.
Fade – RB Peyton Lewis ($4,300) Lewis is primarily used red-zone situations which may be few and far to come by against the Sooner defense. Collectively, the OU defense allows just 14.5 FPPG to opposing backfields, so we’re not likely to be interested in an RB3, short yardage back with the Vols being an underdog.
Bargain Bin – WR Mike Matthews ($4,600) If bargain shopping the Tennessee offense, we’d side with Matthews over players like Miles Kitselman or Star Thomas. Matthews had his third 100-yard performance of the season last week vs. Kentucky, converting on all six of his targets. He’s had three or more receptions in all but one game this year and leads the Vols in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Braylon Staley ($5,800) This week feels like a matchup for Staley to exploit. Slot receivers have found the most success recently against the Sooner defense, including Ole Miss freshman Winston Watkins last week who posted 111 yards on four receptions. Against Texas, it was DeAndre Moore Jr. who had 50 yards and a touchdown. Tennessee has been leaky in pass protection the last two weeks, so may not have time to allow all the deep shots to develop. That plays in favor of Staley seeing a good chunk of targets in the middle of the field.
Best of the Rest – QB Joey Aguilar ($8,400) Aguilar is closer to a fade than a play this week. Tennessee likely has to throw to win on Saturday, but that’s usually worked out better for Oklahoma than its opponents in those scenarios. Trinidad Chambliss was the first QB to score more than 20 fantasy points against OU last week as the Sooners allow just 9.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. The WRs and Bishop are our primary focus for the Vols.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
- Point-Spread: FSU -10
- O/U Total: 50
- Implied Score: FSU 30 – WF 20
- Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Fade – QBs. We have a couple situations on this slate where teams could play two quarterbacks. Wake fits that description with Deshawn Purdie and Robby Ashford, and the Deacons are nearly good enough of a passing team to warrant any consideration here. Pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Sterling Berkhalter ($3,800) or WR Micah Mays Jr. ($3,400) Carlos Hernandez seems to have fallen out of favor in the Wake WR rotation, with Mays and Berkhalter solidifying their starting spots on the outside. Mays leads the team with a 20.3 YPC average and could pose problems for the FSU secondary that ranks 100th in explosive pass plays allowed. Berkhalter is second on the team in routes run. Limit to one Wake Forest wideout per lineup with the team’s QB conundrum.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Barnes ($5,400) Barnes is the fastest player on the team, and Wake’s No. 1 wideout with 29 receptions for 481 yards and three scores. Not often do you see a player with a 16.6 YPC average and an aDOT of just 6.7 yards. That speaks to Barnes’ electric speed.
Best of the Rest – RB Demond Claiborne ($6,100) Claiborne is an option for the Deacons, but be prepared to throw your remote at the TV because this has been the most maddening of seasons if you’re a fantasy owner of the Wake RB1. Early on it was just getting vultured in the red zone by Robby Ashford that was causing frustrations. Now it’s injury, as Claiborne has left almost every game the last month or so with some sort of ailment. Claiborne is not on the injury report fwiw. While the FSU season has gone in the dumpster, the run defense has not, where the Seminoles are 26th in rush D success rate and 12th in limiting explosive run plays.
Injury Notes – QB Robby Ashford (probable), TE Eni Falayi (questionable), TE Harry Lodge (out)
Florida State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
