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Houston vs. Central Florida
- Point-Spread: Hou -1.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Hou 24.5 – UCF 23
- Weather: 71 degrees / 8% rain / 4 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Conner Weigman ($8,300) Weigman is theCFFSite’s fourth highest projected QB of the weekend in college football and has the highest projection of any QB on this particular slate. The former A&M transfer has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs in the country, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but two games this season – when Houston blew out Rice in Week 2 and then when he left the game due to injury against Texas Tech. UCF is no push over defensively, ranked 4th in the conference in scoring defense, but we have a high projection for Weigman and a tight game spread.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Young ($3,100) or WR Harvey Broussard ($3,300) Both receivers have seen a heavy dosage of snaps the last two games in light of the injury to Stephon Johnson who is out for the season. Young is second among Houston receivers in routes run the last two weeks ahead of Broussard, and would be the preferred choice of the two after being targeted eight times vs. West Virginia last week.
Pivot Play – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,800) Tight ends have taken advantage of this UCF defense this season, allowing 12.5 FPPG to the position. Baylor’s Michael Trigg posted 82 yards and a TD last week. Cincinnati’s Joe Royer had 83 yards on just two catches against the Knights. And Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley also had a touchdown catch in his matchup with UCF. Koziol has found the end-zone in three straight games and would not surprise to see that streak extend to four.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($5,400) Thomas has really taken off since the Stephon Johnson injury as the undisputed WR1 for the Cougars with 69 or more yards in five of his last six games, with six of his seven receiving touchdowns coming in the last five weeks. UCF does a pretty good job at corraling opposing wide receivers, allowing just 24.6 FPPG to the position. Koziol might be the best receiving option in DFS for Houston, but at a much lower upside than Thomas. RB Dean Connors ($7,200) continues to garner the heavy dosage of rushing attempts each week for Houston, and this is a favorable matchup as UCF is better against the pass than the run. The Knights rank 99th in rush D success rate, 73rd in explosive runs allowed and 9th in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground. He’s a strong pivot option against consensus with most focused on Weigman and the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($5,700) May not seem possible after getting obliterated 30-3 last week against Baylor and that horrific defense, but UCF is projected by Vegas to score three touchdowns in this matchup, so we’ll want exposure somewhere. The Houston run defense is slightly above average, allowing just 3.6 YPC this season, but ranked 99th in rush D success rate. Montgomery continues to be a favorite of the coaching staff, seeing double-digit carries in all but one game this season. Houston is allowing just over 24 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,000) Well, with the Cam Fancher news being ruled out, there’s no chance of Tayven Jackson being benched this week, so he’s got that going for him at least. Houston is strong on the back end, ranked 16th in pass D success rate, allowing just 204 YPG through the air. There’s at least three strong QB options on the slate to where there’s no reason to risk playing Jackson here with a 14-point projection.
Pivot Play – RB Jaden Nixon ($5,100) Seems as though we’re just never going to see double-digit rushing attempts for Nixon in any game this season, despite still averaging over 11 yards per carry this season. Houston ranks 30th in the country in limiting explosive run plays, which doesn’t favor Nixon in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Duane Thomas Jr. ($5,300) The WR rotations for UCF flucuate weekly, so we’re unlikely to have much exposure for a team that spreads the ball around and 73rd in passing offense. Thomas is the preferred option of the bunch as the team leader in targets (54), receptions (38) and receiving yards (393), coming off his best performance of the season with 8-77-0. TE Dylan Wade ($3,400) has been the second most consistent pass catching option behind Thomas for UCF with 13 of his 23 receptions coming in the last three weeks. WR Waden Charles ($3,800) ran the most routes of any UCF receiver against Baylor last week but resulted in a goose egg on just four targets.
Injury Notes – QB Cam Fancher (out), WR Marcus Burke (questionable)
Tulane vs. Memphis
- Point-Spread: Mem -3.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: Mem 28.5 – Tul 25
- Weather: 64 degrees / 31% rain / 4 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
