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Colorado vs. West Virginia
- Point-Spread: WVU -6.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: WVU 31 – Col 24.5
- Weather: 58 degrees / 47% rain / 10 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Omarion Miller ($4,800) If only he were consistent, Miller has all-conference caliber talent but has rarely strung together consecutive big-time performances over the last two or so years. Maybe a change at quarterback helps accomplish more? Miller has had 20% or more of the team’s target share in six of the last seven games, coming off his best performance of the season with 91 yards and two scores vs. a good Arizona secondary. West Virginia is awful on the back end, allowing 44.6 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups.
Fade – RBs. Injuries have decimated the position, but the Buffs did get back both Micah Welch and Dallan Hayden from injury last week vs. Arizona. That said, the Buffs haven’t had a player rush for more than 60 yards since Week 6 and split the backfield four ways between the top three rushers and the QB position. Just not appealing whatsoever.
Bargain Bin – WR Sincere Brown ($3,300) Best thing we can say about Sincere Brown is that he’s on the field, playing 90.5% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last five games. Brown doesn’t have more than 100 combined receiving yards in that span, but he’s out there.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Williams ($4,800) After not playing in Week 9, Williams was back on the field vs. Arizona, catching three passes on five targets while running the most routes of any Colorado receiver in the game. Perhaps we see all Colorado receivers get a stock boost with Kaidon Salter no longer throwing passes for this team.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Lewis ($6,300) The quarterback on the other side in this game is cheap and has proven more to this point, so we’d absolutely favor Fox over Lewis. And probably won’t even consider Lewis either. But this is also a West Virginia defense that has allowed four of the last five opponents it’s faced to throw for at least 290 passing yards. And Lewis is still a borderline 5-star talent according to recruiting services. The Mountaineers are giving up 25.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. We’ll likely play some of the WRs over Lewis, but he’s at least in the conversation.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Diore Hubbard ($4,800) As we saw last year at Jacksonville State with Tre Stewart, when Rich Rod finds a running back, he’ll lean on him to carry the offense. That’s happened a few times this year already with Jahiem White and then Tye Edwards for a brief moment. Now, it’s Hubbard’s turn after rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown on 29 attempts in the upset victory over Houston last week. Hubbard is only averaging 3.4 YPC this season, so there’s some risk, but one worth taking at this salary against the dead body that is Colorado. We’ll just need to make sure that Hubbard is good to go, after leaving the contest late with what seems to be an injury. He was listed on the game week depth chart, though.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Weimer ($3,300) Will need to do some investigating reporting to see if Weimer and Scotty Fox Jr. are roommates of any kind, because his production boost has coincided with Fox becoming West Virginia’s QB1. 124 of Weimer’s 190 receiving yards this season have come in the last two games, including a season-high 94.7% snaps played last week vs. Houston.
Pivot Play – QB Scotty Fox Jr. ($6,200) Rich Rod might be purple in the face, and piss some people off in the process, but he usually gets his offenses clicking at some point once he settles on a quarterback. Is Fox for sure that guy in 2026 and beyond? Who knows, but he is here and now in the present after combining for over 200 total yards and three touchdowns in the upset victory over Houston. This is an excellent matchup against a Colorado defense that has quit on the season, allowing 50+ points in consecutive games.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Vaughn ($6,200) There will be strong temptation to go cheap and play Jeff Weimer over Cam Vaughn. Strong pivot opportunity away from the field as Vaughn is the team’s WR1, leading the Mountaineers in every receiving category. Colorado ranks 121st in the country in explosive pass plays allowed, which plays right into the hands of Vaughn who averages 15.5 YPC with a team-high 16.2 aDOT. If you fade what is likely to be a highly owned Diore Hubbard, can we offer you RB Cyncir Bowers ($4,200)? The freshman has popped at times this season but rushed for 65 yards and a score on nine attempts vs. Houston. If West Virginia wins this one running away, Bowers could get some garbage-time action.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Penn State
- Point-Spread: IU -14.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: IU 32 – PSU 17.5
- Weather: 54 degrees / 46% rain / 11 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,800) This would hinge on Elijah Sarratt’s availability for Saturday, who was deemed as “day-to-day” by HC Curt Cignetti as he was forced to leave the game against Maryland with a hamstring injury. Cooper has been hit or miss this season but would be the undisputed WR1 if Sarratt were to miss the contest and looked the part against the Terps with 7-86-1 on nine targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Khobie Martin ($4,000) The trouble with this play is that it’s entirely contingent on Indiana blowing out Penn State. Possible, yes, because Curt Cignetti takes no prisoners and Indiana has far more momentum and motivation in this matchup than Penn State. But the freshman has looked awesome in his limited work, rushing for 80 yards and a TD vs. Maryland last week, and had a 107-yard, two-touchdown performance against Illinois in Week 4. Those were 40-point blowouts, though.
Pivot Play – WR EJ Williams ($5,300) Was hoping we’d see Williams in the $3-4k range that he’s been in most of the year, but DK clearly accounting for the Elijah Sarratt injury with this price. Williams is likely a no-go if Sarratt is in. But he does play over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps with or without the star WR1 in the lineup. If Sarratt is out, Williams is in play.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($9,300) We don’t love a 21.5-point projection at this price for Mendoza with plenty of QB options available to us on the slate. That said, QBs are scoring 31.5% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing Penn State this season, as the Nittany Lions are not the dominant defensive unit they’ve been in the past. RB Roman Hemby ($6,400) and RB Kaelon Black ($4,900) are both in play against a Penn State run defense that has allowed over 400 yards on the ground in the last two weeks to Iowa and Ohio State.
Injury Notes – WR Elijah Sarratt (questionable)
Penn State:
RB Kaytron Allen ($6,000) or bust on the Penn State side as the senior back has now found the end-zone in all eight games played this season. His 76 yards and a touchdown last week don’t jump off the page, but 21 attempts against the No. 1 defense in the country does. Stiff challenge again this week against an Indiana defense that is statistically better against the run, allowing 1.75 fewer yards per game on the ground than the Buckeyes. Volume is king, though, and Penn State is feeding their RB1.
Ohio State vs. Purdue
- Point-Spread: OSU -30.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: OSU 39.5 – Purd 9
- Weather: 52 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,200) or WR Carnell Tate ($5,700) Same sentiment as last week…almost every lineup you create this week should have one of Smith or Tate in it. Tate continues to be ridiculously underpriced for a player that has surpassed 100 receiving yards in four of the last six games, and has now cemented himself as a NFL Draft 1st round lock.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,100) Two games in a row where Isaiah West has had more or equal carries to Peoples. Maybe a garbage-time touchdown is the only way that Peoples factors into a lineup that is in the money.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,500) Klare has not had the fantasy impact that some thought he might coming into the year, but ya think the coaches might want to get the former Purdue transfer into the end zone against his former team? If not DFS, maybe sprinkle some coin on a Klare any time touchdown prop bet.
Pivot Play –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
