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California vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: UL -20.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: UL 35.5 – Cal 15
- Weather: 58 degrees / 11% rain / 8 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob de Jesus ($5,300) JDJ has been targeted at least eight times in every game since the opening week against Oregon State, and game script will be in his favor once again on Saturday. We’ve seen slot receivers have good success against this Louisville defense, namely Miami’s Malachi Toney (9-135-0) and Pittsburgh’s Cataurus Hicks (4-113-1).
Fade – QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ($6,300) There’s a rumor circulating on social media that Miami is taking a big swing with their deep pocketbooks at a quarterback for the 2026 season. JKS is likely one of those getting calls from the Miami donors. As for this week, no chance we’re playing JKS with an 11.7-point projection.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($3,600) Strong performance from Grizzell last week vs. Virginia, converting on all eight of his targets for 80 yards. Has found the end-zone just once, but leads the team in routes run, and is the top deep threat, averaging over 15 YPC. While the Cal QB isn’t playable, the game script sets up for a high number of passes thrown as a three-touchdown underdog.
Pivot Play – TE Mason Mini ($3,900) Team leader in touchdowns (4), while ranking third in targets (46) and tied for second in receptions (34). Mini rarely comes off the field too, playing over 97% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last five games. His numbers haven’t been as good in the last three games as they were at the start of the season, but this is a good matchup against a Louisville defense that has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing over 11 FPPG to the position. Boston College took advantage of the middle of the Louisville defense with their two tight ends combining for 135 yards and two scores.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendrick Raphael ($5,800) Raphael has been one of the most consistent fantasy running backs over the last month or so and does not share carries with any other Cal runners. That said, he’s a pure volume play in a game where Cal is 20-point underdogs. While he’s hit value every week, Raphael is also averaging under four yards a carry in each of the last four games, while also facing a Louisville defense that gives up just 13 FPPG to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyjuan Brown ($6,100) With Isaac Brown suffering an injury against Virginia Tech last week that may keep him out the rest of the year, backup Keyjuan Brown stepped up against Virginia Tech to rush for 94 yards and two scores in his absence. Cal is one of the worst run defenses in the ACC, ranked 14th in yards allowed on the ground and tied for second to last in rushing touchdowns given up (18). The ONLY real hesitation here is that RB Duke Watson ($6,000) is likely to return to the lineup and was ahead of him on the depth chart coming into the year. That, and Brown is likely to see heavy ownership.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,600) Moss is in play because of his rushing usage over the last five games with five rushing touchdowns in that span, but not the best matchup for the Louisville passing game. Cal ranks 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed through the air (198.6) and have given up just 7 passing touchdowns all year which is best in the conference. This game sets up for a heavy run script.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($7,300) or WR Caullin Lacy ($5,100) Not a matchup to stack the two together being such heavy favorites, but having one in a lineup is wise strategy in that the WR duo combines for 58% of the receiving production on the team and 8-of-12 receiving touchdowns. Four times this season Cal has allowed a 100-yard receiver.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out), RB Duke Watson (probable)
Florida State vs. Clemson
- Point-Spread: Clem -2.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – FSU 27
- Weather: 63 degrees / 19% rain /5 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Duce Robinson ($5,800) Robinson has now posted 80 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games following his 148-yard performance in the blowout win over Wake Forest last week. The two instances where Robinson did not hit 80 receiving yards? Against Kent State when he wasn’t needed, and against Pittsburgh when he left the first half due to injury. High game total and narrow spread is what we like to see. Clemson has allowed 651 passing yards over the last two games, and multiple 100-yard receivers.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,200) Sawchuk found the end-zone twice against Wake Forest, but the major storyline was him being relegated to backup duties. This is not the matchup or game scenario to roster a backup running back.
Bargain Bin – RB Samuel Singleton Jr. ($4,000) Mike Norvell finally turned over the RB1 job to a freshman – it just wasn’t the freshman we all thought it would be. Singleton rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in the win over Wake Forest, and it is hard to envision he doesn’t start again this week after that performance. As for the matchup, Clemson is much better against the run than the pass, ranking 36th in rush D success rate and 15th in stuff rate. Singleton isn’t a must play, but he’s dirt cheap for an RB1.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($8,500) The season-long numbers are fine for the Clemson pass defense, but have been very leaky on the backend in the last two weeks as we alluded to above. Ranking 123rd in explosive pass plays allowed is not a great recipe for success when facing two starting receivers for FSU that average over 20 yards per catch. Extremely high floor for Castellanos this week for a QB that has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game this season, in a matchup that does have shootout potential. Florida State on the road in ACC play under Norvell has not been great, though.
Best of the Rest – WR Micahi Danzy ($5,900) Nothing changed with Danzy’s usage last week, he actually set a season-high in offensive snaps played vs. Wake Forest …it just didn’t workout in his favor with Duce Robinson being the preferred target on the night. Robinson makes much more sense here given the slight salary savings at $100 cheaper, but Danzy is in the mix as a pivot option that will likely have significantly less ownership.
Injury Notes – RB Roydell Williams (probable)
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR TJ Moore ($4,700) Was a bit nervy for a minute last week, but TJ Moore came through eventually with a 75-yard touchdown reception vs. Duke. The four targets was not what we wanted to see, but Moore did play 92% of the offensive snaps against the Blue Devils and first on the team in routes run. The salary is a big part of why Moore is Clemson’s top play because of the flexibility to spend up elsewhere.
Bargain Bin – WR Tristan Smith ($3,600) Smith took on the full role of Bryant Wesco Jr. and did not split time with any other Clemson receiver, finishing second on the team in receptions (6) and targets (8) for 79 yards. About as strong a sub $4k play as you’ll see on any slate.
Pivot Play – RB Gideon Davidson ($4,400) Extremely interested to see how the Clemson RBs shake out this week after Davidson saw his most extended action of the season last week, rushing for 51 yards on 12 attempts, while adding four catches in the passing game. Will the coaching staff get Davidson more involved again this week, or was that simply a product of RB Adam Randall ($6,500) being injured in the second quarter? FSU is far better against the run than the pass, ranked 49th in success rate and 8th in limiting explosive run plays. Will also be interested to see Randall / Davidson’s usage in the passing game against this FSU defense. Remember the matchup with Pitt a few weeks ago where the running backs combined for nearly 200 receiving yards on 12 receptions. Randall or Davidson could hit value multiple ways.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($6,800) Most everyone will be on either Moore or Smith for the salary savings, so just like last week, Williams is the ultimate shift away from the crowd. Easily his best performance of the season with 10-149-1 on 12 targets but has been consistent since coming back from injury too, with at least five receptions in each of the last five games. QB Cade Klubnik’s ($9,000) projection of just 22 points seems to take him out of the equation here, but FSU’s secondary can be taken advantage of, ranked 83rd in success rate and 95th in explosive plays allowed. The Seminoles are allowing just 19.9 FPPG to quarterbacks but have only played two top 50 fantasy QBs all year.
Injury Notes – WR Bryant Wesco Jr. (out)
Wake Forest vs. Virginia
- Point-Spread: UVA -6.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: UVA 27.5 – WF 21
- Weather: 58 degrees / 4% rain / 4 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Fade –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
