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Clemson vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: Lou -2.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Lou 27 – Clem 24.5
- Weather: 59 degrees / 12% rain / 7 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,500) Starting point for our builds as Klubnik is far and away the best option on the slate, but that has more to do with the other QBs more than the actual matchup. Louisville is No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed through the air, and ranks 19th in pass D success rate and 17th in explosive pass plays. That said, we also just saw a true freshman carve up this Louisville secondary on the road last week for 350 yards and two scores. In the last four games, Klubnik has been incredibly efficient, completing 78% of his passes for 10 touchdowns to just one interception.
Fade – RB Adam Randall ($6,400) Can’t outright eliminate anyone on a two-game slate but I continue to be profitable by fading Randall in most spots. Detractors of that statement will argue usage, but that is trending down fast with double-digit rushing attempts for freshman RB Gideon Davidson ($4,500) in each of the last two weeks, and now there is no excuse of an injury. Randall was healthy against Florida State and still gave way to the freshman. Not playing any Clemson running back is a possibility as well, as the Cardinals are allowing just 15 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Olsen Patt-Henry ($3,200) Have to take chances on a two-game slate to take down a GPP. Decent spot here for Patt-Henry who has been targeted three times in each of the last four games. Louisville has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing 11.5 FPPG to the position.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If we had more QB options to choose from, then WR Antonio Williams ($6,300) would easily be the top fantasy option for Clemson this week. Slot receivers have had their way with this Louisville secondary in ACC play. Both Malachi Toney and Cataurus Hicks had over 100 receiving yards in their matchups. And then last week with Cal’s Jacob de Jesus leading the country with 16 receptions on 23 (!!!) targets in the win last Saturday night. WR TJ Moore ($4,500) or WR Tristan Smith ($4,200) are playable, but not to the extent of Williams, as neither have had the impact that Bryant Wesco had prior to the injury.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyjuan Brown ($5,600) I got “got” on Wednesday night, rushing to bet the under on Keyjuan Brown’s prop number after the injury report was released with Isaac Brown not listed. Then a tweet comes out 5 min later from a Louisville beat writer stating that the report was inaccurate and that Brown is indeed out on Friday. Such is life of a prop bettor. Keyjuan Brown has been excellent over the last three weeks filling in as the RB1 with 90+ rushing yards in each game during that span. Clemson is adequate at stopping the run, but not a dominant group to where you can’t play any RBs against them.
Bargain Bin – TE Nate Kurisky ($4,000) Having any Louisville pass-catcher beyond Chris Bell or Caullin Lacy is far from a requirement and probably preferred to not do so. Kurisky is third on the team in targets (24) and receptions (16). Clemson is giving up 10.5 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – RB Duke Watson ($5,100) The ultimate pivot play that could win a GPP, but also sink your lineup. Keyjuan Brown held a 14-6 advantage last week in rushing attempts and looked like the far better runner of the two, but it was Watson who scored the rushing TD. No clear advantage with red zone rushing attempts (1-1). Clemson is not a defense that you stack the Louisville backfield, so don’t take that strategy.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,500) Would lean Moss as my second QB behind Klubnik, but not a slate where you need to have a second QB in the Superflex. Clemson has been strong against the pass as well, ranking 19th in success rate and allowing just 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. His usage on the ground is most surprising this season, now with a rushing TD in five of the last six games. Moss’ 2 red-zone carries vs. Cal last week were most on the team. We’ve seen increased production from slot WR Caullin Lacy ($5,200), while WR Chris Bell ($6,600) has been on the decline since the Miami game. This is absolutely a spot for Bell against this Clemson secondary that is 112th nationally in explosive pass plays allowed. Just look at the last three weeks. 100 yards to Duce Robinson. 100 yards to Cooper Barkate. 100 yards to Jordan Hudson. This is a Bell week.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out)
Minnesota vs. Oregon
- Point-Spread: Oreg -25
- O/U Total: 44
- Implied Score: Oreg 34.5 – Minn 9.5
- Weather: 53 degrees / 29% rain / 3 mph winds
Minnesota:
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
