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Missouri vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: OU -7.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: OU 25 – Mizzou 17.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,700) What a performance last week for the sophomore running back, rushing for 300 yards on 25 attempts in the win over Mississippi State. The difficulty in rostering Hardy this week is the matchup as Oklahoma ranks No. 1 in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, giving up around 16 FPPG to opposing backfields. Alabama’s anemic running game behind Daniel Hill Jr. found some level of success last week vs. the Sooners, and Missouri won’t win this game on the road without Hardy getting 20+ touches.
Fade – Whoever is at QB. Report on Sunday came out that there is optimism that Beau Pribula may be able to return this weekend after suffering an ankle injury vs. Vanderbilt earlier in the year. Neither he nor Matt Zollers is under consideration this week, facing an OU defense that only allows 12 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. They’re all cheap, and understandably so with the team throwing for under 200 passing yards and just 15 completed passes over the last two games. Pribula starting would raise the floor of the group, but there’s not much upside here even if that happens, as the Tigers are spreading targets around this season. WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($4,800), WR Josh Manning ($4,100) and freshman WR Donovan Olgubode ($4,400) are options, with the latter two hauling in touchdowns this past week. WR Marquis Johnson ($3,900) is the only unplayable option amongst the group as may have lost his starting job, playing only 18% of the offensive snaps vs. Mississippi State.
Injury Notes – QB Beau Pribula (questionable)
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($6,400) This past Saturday was the first time since mid-September that Sategna did not score double-digit fantasy points in a game, limited to just four catches for minimal yards. The starting slot receiver continues to lead OU in all receiving categories, while also leading the team in targets in six of the last seven games. Sategna is just about the only considerable option on the OU offense.
Fade – RB Xavier Robinson ($5,000) Robinson left the contest vs. Alabama last week with a knee sprain, though did re-enter the game in the fourth quarter. Early indications are that Robinson will give it a go on Saturday, but likely not at 100 percent. If it’s a split between Robinson and Tory Blaylock, this backfield goes from minimal interest to none at all. Missouri is 10th nationally in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,000) Obviously not the season most thought Burks would have in 2025, but he’s still on the field a lot, leading the Sooners in routes run, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last seven games.
Best of the Rest – QB John Mateer ($7,200) Lowest salary we’ve seen for Mateer on DK since the Texas game when the DFS providers knew that the OU quarterback was injured. Pricing is just about the only reason we’re mildly considering Mateer in this spot, because the Mizzou secondary is one of the better groups in the SEC, ranked second in yards allowed and 17th in pass D success rate. Mateer’s rushing usage also keeps him in play, with double-digit rushing attempts in five of the last six weeks. More will be counted on Mateer if both Robinson and Blaylock are limited.
Injury Notes – RB Xavier Robinson (questionable), RB Tory Blaylock (questionable)
Louisville vs. SMU
- Point-Spread: SMU -2.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: SMU 27.5 – Lou 25
- Weather: 62 degrees / 7% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($6,800) and / or WR Caullin Lacy ($5,400) We thought last week would be Chris Bell week but that did not transpire, catching just five passes for 79 yards with no touchdowns. We were a week early. This is a better matchup against an SMU defense that is allowing over 51 FPPG to opposing WR rooms. Both Bell and Lacy are playable in this scenario with the duo dominating a condensed team target share.
Fade – RB Duke Watson ($5,000) So, here’s the deal with Watson. We’re fading because he’s clearly been the lesser of the two backs between he and Keyjuan Brown. That is obvious to the naked eye. Add in a costly fumble last week and that should be even more reason to fade the sophomore back. That said, we did see Watson’s usage increase slightly from 8 touches to 13 touches against Clemson. Also, the red-zone distribution is frustrating, with Watson holding a 2-0 advantage last week over Brown.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($5,300) On the surface, Moss is a play at this salary and an 18-point projection. But he has not played well over the last three weeks, failing to score more than 16 fantasy points in a game with just one touchdown pass in three games. When asked about the QB position on Monday, Jeff Brohm said, “we’ll have packages for all of our quarterbacks. We’ll put the best guy out there that will help us win.” Not exactly a vote of confidence in Moss. This will be a dilemma this week, because you can absolutely throw on SMU, with the Mustangs ranked 16th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed and give up over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – RB Keyjuan Brown ($6,000) High floor / low upside play with Brown. The good – 90+ rushing yards in each of the last four games. The bad – Brown gives way to Duke Watson in the red zone with even Miller Moss getting more goal-line touches. Also bad – SMU is 3rd in the ACC in yards given up on the ground with the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed in the conference.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out)
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Hudson ($5,300) Hudson is the closest thing in year’s we’ve had to an alpha WR for the Mustangs, scoring double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games, excluding the dud for the entire SMU offense vs. Wake Forest. Hudson has led the team in targets in each of the last six games, with seven or more targets in every game during that stretch.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($5,300) SMU is 111th in rush success rate and 106th in yards per game on the ground, facing a defense that allows just 17 FPPG to opposing backfields. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,300) Hibner has now scored 10+ fantasy points in four of his last five games played, no longer sharing the position with RJ Maryland like previous years. Louisville is giving up around 11 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – WR Yamir Knight ($4,500) Knight is coming off his best performance of the season by far with 162 yards and seven receptions on nine targets in the win over Boston College. The former JMU transfer has found the end-zone in consecutive games, heading into a matchup with a Louisville defense that has struggled to defend starting slot receivers. Malachi Toney and Cataurus Hicks both had 100+ yards in their matchups with the Cardinals. And in the last two games, Louisville has allowed a combined 23 receptions to Jacob de Jesus and Antonio Williams…both slot receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,600) Not an appealing matchup for Jennings this week, facing the No. 1 pass defense in the conference, as Louisville is first in yards allowed, and 20th nationally in pass D success rate. Jennings just barely missed the cut as SMU’s fade option, because they’re so woeful running the football. WR Romello Brinson ($4,600) is one of the strongest pivot options on the slate that will have less than 5% ownership. My guess is Hudson, Knight and Hibner have higher ownership. Brinson doesn’t have the production of a Jordan Hudson but is on the field 90% of the time each week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. Virginia Tech
- Point-Spread: Mia -18.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: Mia 33.5 – VT 15
- Weather: 58 degrees / 52% rain / 8 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
