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Arizona State vs. Colorado
- Point-Spread: ASU -7
- O/U Total: 49
- Implied Score: ASU 28 – Col 21
- Weather: 44 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jeff Sims ($7,700) Sims has been outstanding in the last two games, compiling over 80 fantasy points in wins over Iowa State and West Virginia, and gets a matchup this week against a lifeless Colorado defense. The Buffs are giving up over 25 FPPG this season to quarterbacks. A significant portion of my lineups on Saturday night will include the pairing of Haynes King and Sims as my two QBs.
Fade – TE Chamon Metayer ($4,900) The latest ASU practice report as of Wednesday had Metayer as a non-participant as he was not observed by the media. Maybe that status changes by Saturday but will be one to monitor in pregame if we don’t get any clarification in the next 24 hours. Metayer doesn’t have the ceiling of a player to risk on a DFS slate if his status is in doubt.
Bargain Bin – WR Derek Eusebio ($4,100) Eusebio is coming off a breakout performance against West Virginia last week, targeted a season-high seven times, resulting in 74 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. If Chamon Metayer is indeed out on Saturday, Eusebio will be the primary target in the middle of the field, lining up in the slot 97% of the time. Of course, the dynamic changes for all Arizona State receivers if Jordyn Tyson plays, as he was suited up at practice this week.
Best of the Rest – RB Raleek Brown ($7,000) On paper, Brown should be a go, facing the last ranked run defense in the Big 12. But he’s been relatively underwhelming in the last five games, averaging just 4.3 YPC and failing to score more than 19 fantasy points in that stretch. You just expect more considering Brown is the only running back left essentially in the ASU backfield that’s healthy.
Injury Notes – QB Sam Leavitt (out), WR Jordyn Tyson (questionable), TE Chamon Metayer (questionable)
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Omarion Miller ($6,100) and / or WR Joseph Williams ($4,600) 51 combined fantasy points scored over the last two weeks for Miller, and his fourth double-digit fantasy performance in the last five games with 131 yards in the loss to West Virginia. Both Miller and Joseph Williams get a significant boost in value with Julian Lewis at QB with Colorado’s pass rates going up with a pocket passer under center. Open to stacking both Colorado receivers in a lineup but will look to include at least one of Miller or Williams in most of my builds.
Fade – RBs. Arizona State is not impenetrable by any means, having allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season, but the Sun Devils are second in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. Conversely, the Buffs are woeful at running the ball again, averaging just 122 yards per game on the ground. At this stage in the season, I couldn’t tell you who Colorado’s starting running back is anymore.
Bargain Bin – WR Dre’lon Miller ($3,900) Miller has been a chess piece for Colorado, helping where needed this season, either at receiver or running back. He had his best performance of the year as well against West Virginia, converting on all five of his targets. Look what happens when Colorado has a somewhat capable passer.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Lewis ($7,400) Lewis immediately upgraded the Colorado offense in his first career start, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to West Virginia. While Arizona State allows around 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, we believe Lewis is closer to a fade than a play this week. Much like Shedeur Sanders, Lewis provides nothing on the ground, as evidenced by his -39 rushing yards against WVU. Add in that Colorado could be without BOTH starting tackles on Saturday night, and Lewis will need to throw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns at least to hit value, because he’ll likely have negative rushing yards again.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: BYU -2
- O/U Total: 55
- Implied Score: BYU 28.5 – Cin 26.5
- Weather: 48 degrees / 27% rain / 3 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($7,600) It’s fun when BYU is on a DFS slate because there is no mystery about where the offensive production is coming from. There’s four players of note and that’s about it. Martin gets top billing this week after looking at how running backs have fared against this Cincinnati defense of late. 94 yards and TD from Kedrick Reescano. 90 yards from a Baylor freshman running back. 100+ from Utah’s Wayshawn Parker. And then 163 yards on the ground from Oklahoma State’s Rodney Fields, easily his best performance of the year. Martin will get 95% of the rushing attempts that go to BYU running backs on Saturday, and his usage in the passing game is on the rise with 10 catches in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,900) Four receptions in three of the last four games for Ryan, who is third on the team in targets (37), catches (28) and routes run. Cincinnati is allowing over 13 FPPG to tight ends this season, one of the higher numbers on the slate.
Pivot Play – QB Bear Bachmeier ($9,200) Not only has Bear Bachmeier been the best freshman quarterback in the country, he’s arguably been the most consistent fantasy QB in the country, outside of maybe Haynes King. 20+ fantasy points in all but two games this season – Texas Tech (understandable) and a blowout of the Stanford being the two instances. Cincinnati allows 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, who are also scoring 24% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Bearcats.
Best of the Rest – WR Parker Kingston ($6,900) or WR Chase Roberts ($6,500) Salaries make it to where you cannot stack the BYU receivers, but the duo of Roberts and Kingston does account for 52% of the team’s target share and 61% of BYU’s receiving production this season. Slot receivers have found the most success against Cincinnati this season, which points towards Kingston being the choice of the two. Arizona’s Kris Hutson and Utah’s Ryan Davis, both slot receivers, combined for 16 receptions and over 200 yards in the last two weeks vs. Cincy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($8,800) This will sound surprising for a team that has an implied total of 26 this week and is third in the conference in scoring, but we’re unlikely to have much exposure to the Cincinnati offense on Saturday. Sorsby is usually the top option for Cincy each week, but we have questions about his health heading into this matchup. He suffered a lower-body injury in Week 10 vs. Utah, and then his ankle was rolled up on last week against Arizona and finished the game hobbling. The BYU defense is only allowing 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Of the top QB options, I’ll have the least amount of exposure to Sorsby.
Fade – RBs. Tawee Walker was a solid play last week vs. Arizona with Evan Pryor out of the lineup, rushing for 100+ yards on 12 attempts. With Pryor now healthy and expected to return Saturday, this becomes a committee backfield again, facing a defense that only allows 21 combined fantasy points per game to running backs. Brendan Sorsby (40) also holds a significant advantage over both Walker (15) and Pryor (5) in red zone attempts this season which diminishes the value of both backs.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Caldwell ($4,200) Caldwell’s playing time spiked last week against Arizona with WR Caleb Goodie ($4,000) out of the lineup due to injury. Goodie returns on Saturday, but it is tough to envision Caldwell taking much of a backseat after hauling in 68 yards and a touchdown last week on nine targets. His 86% snaps played vs. Arizona were a season high.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,000) Allen has remained the team’s leading receiver for much of the season, averaging 3.9 receptions and 5.4 targets per game with a team-best nine receiving touchdowns. The interest in all Cincy receivers decreases slightly with Caleb Goodie expected back this week.
Injury Notes – RB Zion Johnson (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
