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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
- Point-Spread: Miss -7
- O/U Total: 62
- Implied Score: Miss 34.5 – MSU 27.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($8,000) As straight forward as it gets for CFB DFS. The nation’s sixth-leading rusher with 1,136 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns on the season faces the worst run defense in the SEC. The Bulldogs have allowed over 300 rushing yards in back-to-back games.
Pivot Play – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,300) There’s temptation to go cheaper with the Ole Miss WRs, but Wallace has led or been tied for the team lead in targets in each of the last five games. Seven or more targets in four of those five games, so his target volume is up as well. The concern with rostering Wallace or any Ole Miss pass-catcher is how much will the Rebels need to throw if they’re bludgeoning MSU on the ground like the last two opponents have? Max one Ole Miss WR per lineup, unless game stacking.
Best of the Rest – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($9,800) I don’t think this is a scenario where you can stack the Ole Miss backfield with Lacy and Chambliss. Not that this won’t be a high-scoring game, but you need 30 fantasy points to pay off this salary, which Chambliss hasn’t done since mid-October. Lineups have to be constructed with one or the other. MSU has been solid in the secondary this season, ranked 7th in the SEC in yards allowed through the air and have the second most interceptions in the conference. The Bulldogs are allowing just 18.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so if choosing between Chambliss and Lacy, the choice is easy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Anthony Evans ($6,000) and / or WR Brenen Thompson ($5,800) Same story different week. The Mississippi State passing game revolves around Evans and Thompson who account for 50% of the team target share and 10 of the 19 receiving touchdowns. Of the two, I prefer Evans as slot receivers have fared better against this Ole Miss secondary and the Rebels are good at limiting explosive pass plays, ranked 25th in that category.
Fade – RB Davon Booth ($5,600) Booth would have been a fade at this salary regardless, as he’s now splitting carries with Fluff Bothwell. But the senior back is suspended for the first half due to a “disciplinary action” from head coach Jeff Lebby.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($4,400) We’ve seen an uptick in production from Traore as his collegiate career winds down, with 17 of his 30 receptions this season coming in the last four games. WR Ayden Williams ($3,300) has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks as MSU’s WR3, though he has just 18 receiving yards in the last three games combined. FWIW – Williams is a former Mississippi transfer (revenge spot).
Pivot Play – RB Fluff Bothwell ($5,800) The former South Alabama transfer hasn’t been much of a factor since coming back from injury, averaging just four yards per carry over the last three games. But he’ll have the backfield mostly to himself in the first half on Friday, and if Bothwell gets rolling, how much will the coaching staff even want to incorporate Davon Booth in the second half? Ole Miss is 14th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, 97th in rush D success rate and 104th in giving up explosive run plays.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($7,600) Unfortunately, the QB spot for Mississippi State is unplayable with Shapen splitting snaps with freshman Kamario Taylor. We envision a bigger role for Taylor on Friday as well to assist Bothwell in the run game with Davon Booth out of the lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Davon Booth (suspension)
Utah vs. Kansas
- Point-Spread: Utah -11.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Utah 36 – KU 24.5
- Weather: 37 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Wayshawn Parker ($6,700) Parker has separated himself from the pack in the Utah backfield with four-straight 100-yard rushing performances and three rushing TDs in the last month. While there isn’t a Utah running back challenging him for carries anymore, he’s still battling to scoring opportunities with both quarterbacks on the roster which limits his upside. Parker is a better cash game option than in GPPs if he’s splitting red zone carries with 2-3 other Utah players. Kansas is 14th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and giving up nearly 30 FPPG to opposing backfields, so the Utes should have no problem running on the Jayhawks.
Bargain Bin – WR JJ Buchanan ($3,900) Buchanan will see an expanded role as the WR1 for the Utes on Friday with Ryan Davis out of the lineup. Buchanan is third on the team in routes run, receptions (20) and targets (38). WR Larry Simmons ($4,000) ran the second most routes behind Buchanan last week against Kansas State, converting on four of his six targets with a receiving touchdown. WR Creed Whittemore ($4,200) also enters the picture as a potential option with Davis out of the lineup. The former Miss State transfer doubled his season total in receptions (6) last week on eight targets. Limit one per lineup as we don’t believe Utah will need to throw much to beat Kansas on Friday.
Pivot Play – QB Devon Dampier ($8,200) Dampier has scored 23 or more fantasy points in five of his last six starts but playing him on Friday means you run the risk of him splitting snaps with backup QB Byrd Ficklin ($7,200) as the Utes have done over the last month. Against Kansas State last week, while Dampier had double the number of rushing attempts and yards on the ground, it was Ficklin that held a 3-2 advantage in rushing TDs and a 4-3 advantage in red zone carries. Kansas is only allowing 20 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and Utah will be without its No. 1 wide receiver, so the alternative is just avoiding this headache, no matter how tempting it might be.
Best of the Rest – TE Dallen Bentley ($5,000) Bentley has found the end zone twice in as many weeks, now sitting atop the Utah leaderboard in touchdowns (5), while ranking second in targets (61), receptions (38) and routes run. Kansas is giving up over 11 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Injury Notes – WR Ryan Davis (out)
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($6,000) or RB Leshon Williams ($5,300) 472 yards allowed on the ground last week by the Utes in their narrow victory over Kansas State. If you take out the matchup against Colorado, Utah is allowing 228 yards per game and a 5.9 YPC average against Big 12 opponents this season. The Utes are now 132nd in the country in explosive run plays given up. Kansas should be able to run on Utah, but does either Hishaw or Williams get the majority of rushing attempts? Or will it be split down the middle as it was vs. Iowa State last week?
Bargain Bin – WR Levi Wentz ($3,600) Kansas hasn’t found a reliable third wide receiver this season, but Wentz has started to emerge of late with 13 targets over the last two games. Low floor / low ceiling play.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,100) Daniels scored 23+ fantasy points in his first four games this season. He’s done that just once in the last five games and will now be facing a Utah defense that does a good job at limiting fantasy production against quarterbacks, averaging just 16.1 FPPG. The only argument(s) in favor of Daniels is that it’s his Senior Day and maybe he runs around just like Avery Johnson did a week ago against this defense with 74 yards on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Emmanuel Henderson ($5,300) or WR Cam Pickett ($4,900) Only room for one Kansas WR per lineup…if that. Kansas has failed to throw more than 200 yards in any of the last four games, while Utah is allowing just 176 YPG through the air. Utah has allowed three 100-yard receivers in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Nebraska
- Point-Spread: Iowa -6.5
- O/U Total: 39.5
- Implied Score: Iowa 23 – Neb 16.5
- Weather: 32 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Iowa:
Our one question anytime that Iowa is on a Main Slate – Can RB Kamari Moulton ($6,800) run on Nebraska? That answer should be a resounding YES with the Cornhuskers ranked 14th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and have given up the second most rushing touchdowns (22) in the conference. Running backs are averaging 29 FPPG against Nebraska this season. I’d really love it, though, if Moulton could stay under his season-long rushing prop of 850.5 yards.
Nebraska:
Vibes are down with the Nebraska program, losers of two of their last three games and now rumors circling quarterback Dylan Raiola and the possibility he enters the portal after this season. As for the here and now, the passing game has fallen off a cliff since the Raiola season-ending injury, so no interest in that component of the offense. RB Emmett Johnson ($7,800) ranks as RB3 in college fantasy football this season, just 0.7 fantasy points behind North Texas’ Caleb Hawkins (also on the slate) and Jeremiyah Love. If not on the ground, Johnson is getting it done as a receiver as well with 44 receptions on 51 targets and had a 100-yard receiving performance against UCLA in Week 11. As for the matchup, Iowa is fourth in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and giving up just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields. Not a gimme matchup by any means but can’t dismiss any running back averaging 23 touches per game.
Ohio vs. Buffalo
- Point-Spread: Ohio -6.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Ohio 26 – Buff 19.5
- Weather: 33 degrees / 69% rain / 15 mph winds
Ohio:
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
