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Houston vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Hou -2.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Hou 31.5 – Bay 29
- Weather: 63 degrees / 46% rain / 12 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Conner Weigman ($8,800) Copy + Paste from every other DFS article this season that included Houston on the slate. Weigman has been arguably the most consistent fantasy quarterback in the country, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in all but two games this season. No reason to think that cannot continue against a Baylor defense that has allowed 40 or more points in four of the last five games. The Bears are allowing over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Young ($3,400) The WR2 and WR3 in the Houston offense don’t matter much at this point. Young took over the secondary WR option after Stephon Johnson’s injury but has managed just nine catches over the last five games. Young was second behind Amare Thomas in routes run vs. TCU last week yet was shut out of the box score.
Pivot Play – RB Dean Connors ($6,500) Connors isn’t the fade that we thought he might be a week ago after splitting carries with backup DJ Butler against UCF in Week 11. Butler still had eight rushing attempts vs. TCU last Saturday, but Connors still held a 12-8 advantage in carries and was (finally) a difference-maker in the passing game with five receptions and a touchdown…his second TD in as many games. Baylor is giving up nearly 32 FPPG to opposing backfields, and Connors is playable solo, or even with Weigman in game stacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($6,400) or TE Tanner Koziol ($5,200) The Houston passing game revolves around Thomas and Koziol who combine for 52% of the target share, 56% of the team’s receiving production and 14 of the 21 receiving touchdowns. Tight ends has fared well against Baylor specifically, averaging nearly 12 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,100) Getting flashbacks to the Utah / Baylor game from two weeks ago. Why? No clear and obvious fantasy target on the Baylor side against the 6th best scoring defense in the Big 12, yet the Bears are expected to put up some points on Saturday with a 29-point implied team total. The last time we were in that situation, Robertson threw for 430 yards and put up 32 fantasy points in the loss to the Utes. Baylor is in a must-win situation on Senior Day this Saturday, being one win away from bowl eligibility, and one loss away from Dave Aranda potentially losing his job.
Fade – RBs. We can’t trust this Baylor backfield at this point and not worth the risk as an underdog on a main slate. Bryson Washington seems to be trending up one week, then fumbles against TCU and gives way to freshman Caden Knighten. At one point in the year, we thought Knighten was set to take over as RB1 with Bryson Washington banged up, and it was fellow freshman Michael Turner getting double-digit carries against Cincinnati and TCU. Houston is by no means dominant against the run, ranked 73rd in stuff rate and 89th in rush D success rate, but its anyone guess who leads the backfield in carries on Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($5,100) With one week to go in the regular season, Trigg is holding onto a slight lead as the TE1 in college fantasy football, though Eli Stowers is hot on his trail. Trigg is averaging 4.5 receptions on 7.7 targets per game, tied for second on the team with six touchdowns and third in routes run. Houston’s done a good job this season against tight ends, only allowing 8.5 FPPG to the position.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Cameron ($6,800) Strong final month to the season for Cameron who has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games, including 236 receiving yards and three scores in the last two weeks on 29 targets. Houston is best against the pass this season, so there haven’t been many big performances from WRs over the course of the year, as the Cougars rank 21st in pass D success rate and 49th in limiting explosive pass plays.
Injury Notes – TE Michael Trigg (questionable)
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
- Point-Spread: TT -23.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: TT 38.5 – WVU 15
- Weather: 34 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($8,100) Difficult game to forecast. Initial inkling is to want to play a Texas Tech running back, Dickey in particular, with the Red Raiders being three-touchdown favorites. Dickey has been starting to get on a roll here in the last month with five rushing touchdowns in the last four games as well. The issue is two-fold. How quickly does this become a blowout, and do we see Dickey get just 11 carries like he did against UCF? Secondly, West Virginia is stout against the run, ranked 27th in stuff rate and 35th in rush D success rate. Dickey gets the nod as Tech’s top play, but we’re find fading the Red Raiders even if they score five touchdowns.
Fade – RB J’Koby Williams ($6,000) See last two sentences above. Williams is priced up to $6k from recent weeks, and West Virginia is allowing just 24 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The Mountaineers haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in the last two games, including vs. Arizona State that just ran for 300+ last week. At minimum, don’t go overweight in exposure on the Tech backfield.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,700) Morton will have less than 5% ownership on Saturday, and perhaps rightfully so, having failed to score more than 16 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That said, the West Virginia secondary is below average, ranked second to last in the conference in yards allowed through the air (254.6 YPG), 114th nationally in completions allowed to opponents and giving up over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We said the West Virginia secondary was bad and we meant it. The Mountaineers are allowing just under 45 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs which is among the highest numbers on the slate. Opposing team’s WRs are scoring 40% more fantasy points than their seasonal average in matchups with West Virginia this season. The question then becomes…who? Outside receivers have given the Mountaineers the most trouble this season, which makes sense as WVU ranks 125th in the country in explosive pass plays allowed. That would favor either WR Caleb Douglas ($6,600) or WR Reggie Virgil ($6,100), who is coming off a career performance with three touchdowns vs. UCF.
Injury Notes – WR Reggie Virgil (questionable)
West Virginia:
We don’t play quarterbacks or running backs against Texas Tech as a general rule this season, especially coming off a week of rest following a bye. So, we’re out on QB Scotty Fox Jr. ($5,300) or RB Cyncir Bowers ($4,200). Bowers should get the bulk of the carries with Diore Hubbard announced out for the season due to injury, but not under consideration against the No. 1 run defense in the country. If West Virginia somehow managed to find their way into the red zone, they’ll probably give the goal line carries to linebacker Curtis Jones as they’ve done in recent weeks.
If you’re dead set on having WVU exposure, there’s three high-risk options in WR Cam Vaughn ($5,400), WR Jeff Weimer ($3,100) or TE Grayson Barnes ($3,100). Vaughn leads the team in targets (66), receptions (33), touchdowns (4) and routes run. Weimer has emerged of late with 240 of his 306 receiving yards this season coming in the last four games. And if Texas Tech has a perceived weakness defensively, it’s in coverage against tight ends which are averaging 13.4 FPPG this season, which could benefit Barnes who played a season-high 75% of snaps in Week 12 vs. Arizona State.
Injury Notes – RB Diore Hubbard (out)
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
- Point-Spread: Mia -6.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Mia 28.5 – Pitt 22
- Weather: 33 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($7,000) I wonder if there’s any motivation by the Miami coaching staff to get the freshman WR to 100 targets on Saturday as Toney sits just 10 away from the century mark. Toney is coming off his best performance of the season with 12-146-1 on 15 targets in the win over the Hokies in a game where Miami couldn’t muster more than 100 yards on the ground. You’d think this would be another pass-heavy script Saturday against a far better run defense in Pitt.
Fade – RBs. If Miami struggled to run on Virginia Tech last week, I find it difficult to see how we won’t have the same outcome this Saturday against the No. 2 run defense in the ACC. Pitt is limiting opposing backfields to just 18 combined fantasy points per game now this season, and we seem to have at least a two-way split between Mark Fletcher and Girard Pringle Jr.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,400) Big miss ranking Lofton as a Top 10 projected fantasy tight end this season, but the sophomore has been coming on of late with a touchdown reception in each of the last two games. Pittsburgh is allowing the single most fantasy points to tight ends (16.7 FPPG) of any team on the slate. Remember two weeks ago how popular a play Eli Raridon was?
Pivot Play – WR Keelan Marion ($3,400) One of the biggest learnings for me this year in this era of NIL and the transfer portal is to not give up too early on transfers in their first season at a new location. Marion is a perfect example of such, now with 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games. Marion’s recent surge has coincided with WR CJ Daniels ($5,200) being out of the lineup, but the BYU transfer has been one of the most efficient receivers on the team, converting 21 of his 22 targets in the last month. Daniels, said to be healthy last week, played all of four offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($6,400) I hold my breath any time I roster Carson Beck on a DFS lineup, but on paper, this makes sense facing a Pitt secondary that has allowed the second most passing touchdowns (22) in the ACC. After the disastrous SMU performance in early November, Beck has rebounded with 8 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and an 80% completion rate over the last three games. Assuming Miami struggles to run the football again, the offense will be relying on Beck primarily to move the football…. for better or worse.
Injury Notes – RB Jordan Lyle (questionable)
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
