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Alabama vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: Bama -5.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Bama 26 – Aub 20.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Fade – RBs. It is fully understood here that anything can happen in college football during rivalry week. But do we really believe that Alabama is magically going to find a running game against an Auburn defense that is 5th in rush D success rate, 3rd in stuff rate and 4th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground? No, we don’t.
Pivot Play – QB Ty Simpson ($8,700) We’re going cheap at quarterback on this slate, so it’s difficult to justify spending up for Simpson or any of the high-priced QB options. Teams can throw on Auburn, though, as the Tigers are 112th in pass play success rate, 93rd in explosive pass plays allowed and 11th out of 16 SEC teams in yards given up through the air. Simpson doesn’t need to be paired with an Alabama WR but probably should have Auburn exposure in the same lineup with the hopes of a shootout.
Best of the Rest – WR Germie Bernard ($6,700) or WR Ryan Williams ($6,600) If there’s an Alabama WR that will be a difference maker on Saturday, the likeliest candidates are either Bernard or Williams. Bernard missed the Mercer game but still leads the team in targets (75), receptions (48) and touchdowns (6). Bernard was targeted 12 times vs. South Carolina and 13 times vs. Oklahoma, both of which were one-score games, which Vegas predicts this matchup to be.
Injury Notes – TE Josh Cuevas (out), RB Kevin Riley (out)
Auburn:
Fade – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,600) It’s one thing to dominate the 15th ranked scoring defense in the SEC. We’ll bet against a journeyman like Ashton Daniels duplicating that kind of performance against the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference that has essentially had two weeks to prepare for the dual-threat quarterback. Not to mention the possibility we see Deuce Knight make an appearance after his six-touchdown performance last week vs. Mercer.
Bargain Bin – WR Malcolm Simmons ($3,300) Between Week’s 5-10, Simmons had just 24 yards receiving. The sophomore receiver has 195 receiving yards in the last two games alone, including 149 yards and a TD vs. Mercer last Saturday. Ability has never been the issue with Simmons.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($6,700) The Alabama run defense has improved over the course of the year, holding its last four opponents to under three yards per carry. That said, those four teams including three teams that are at the bottom of the SEC in rushing and an FCS opponent. For the season, Alabama ranks just 9th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and are 128th in explosive run plays allowed. Cobb will get 15+ rushing attempts, so long as this game is competitive.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Coleman ($6,300) or WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,100) Top heavy target share between Coleman and Singleton at 51% with eight of Auburn’s 10 receiving touchdowns. Alabama is only giving up 24.9 FPPG to opposing team’s WRs so do not stack Coleman and Singleton together in a lineup. Coleman has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, with a 13.1 YPC average and 13.1 aDOT. If there’s a big play in the passing game, it’s far more likely to be Coleman than Singleton.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. NC State
- Point-Spread: NC St -7.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: NC St 27.5 – UNC 20
- Weather: 37 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Shipp ($5,500) or WR Kobe Paysour ($4,600) UNC has become a pass funnel that goes through Shipp and Paysour combining for 40% of the team’s target share and six of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Shipp has been targeted seven or more times in each of the last five games, while Paysour has 16 catches over the last three weeks. We want exposure to either Shipp or Paysour in most of our lineups.
Fade – RBs. Just two occurrences this season where North Carolina has had the same leading rusher in back-to-back games. Teams can run on NC State, allowing over five yards a carry on the ground to both Florida State and Miami in the last two weeks, but don’t say you weren’t warned when it’s RB Demon June ($5,200) leading the Heels in rushing yards, and not RB Davion Gause ($4,600) despite what happened last week. This is a staple of Bill Belichick ever since his days with the Patriots.
Pivot Play – QB Gio Lopez ($5,800) If there was ever a week to play a Gio Lopez, this would be it. NC State is dead last in the ACC in yards allowed through the air and have given up 300+ passing yards in four of its last five games. The fantasy production hasn’t been there, but Lopez has improved over the course of the season, completing over 70% of his passes in the last month with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – RB Hollywood Smothers ($7,200) Smothers is 93 yards away from becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher for NC State since 2018. While Smothers ran for just 84 yards last week, the 21 carries is what we’re focused on here, as the RB1 was questionable coming into the FSU matchup. UNC’s last two opponents have beat up the Heels on the ground, averaging five yards a carry with six total rushing touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Joly ($4,600) Joly has 182 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games. In the two matchups vs. Top 12 scoring defenses = 15 yards, zero touchdowns. In the two matchups vs. Non-Top 12 scoring defenses – 167 yards, three touchdowns. North Carolina is NOT a top 12 scoring defense. Not an exact science, but Joly has been a difference maker against defenses that are not Notre Dame or Miami. UNC is allowing over 11 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Bailey ($6,800) As we said in last week’s writeup, CJ Bailey plays best at home this season. 264.5 pass yards per game with a 12 – 1 touchdown to interception ratio at home. Nine touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road, averaging just 219 YPG through the air. This game is at home, though North Carolina is allowing just 15.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Defense has not been UNC’s issue this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If the term “Wide Receiver by Committee” was listed in the Dictionary, the NC State logo would be pictured next to it. WR Terrell Anderson ($4,000) is the team leader among NC State wideouts in touchdowns (5), targets (47) and receptions (36) but has just 14% of the team target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern vs. Illinois
- Point-Spread: Illini -7.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: Illini 26 – NW 18.5
- Weather: 32 degrees / 96% snow / 13 mph winds
Northwestern:
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
