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Toledo vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: UL -6.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: UL 25.5 – Tol 19
- Weather: 61 degrees / 38% rain / 20 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Junior Vandeross III ($6,700) Need to see in pregame warmups that Vandeross is confirmed to be playing as he’s a possible portal candidate as a redshirt junior. Vandeross was the team’s alpha this season at WR with 76 receptions for 947 yards and 11 touchdowns, with more than double the number of targets as the next closest Toledo pass-catcher. He’s Toledo’s top play, though we wouldn’t go overboard on exposure if Vandeross does suit up with the Rockets likely starting a third-string quarterback.
Fade – RB Chip Trayanum ($7,500) As of now, seems like most Toledo players are practicing with the team for bowl preparations, but we wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Trayanum sit out the game as he’s been injury-prone at times throughout his college career. Even if Traynum suits up, he would be facing a Louisville defense that gave up just a combined 19 FPPG to opposing backfields during the regular season and ranked 13th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryder Treadway ($3,000) Treadway ran the third most routes in the month of November among Toledo receivers behind Vandeross and Trayvon Rudolph and caught touchdowns in Week’s 12 and 13. Very likely that Treadway starts on Tuesday, and could be WR1 if we get surprise opt outs from Vandeross or Rudolph. TE Jacob Petersen ($3,700) plays over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps and faces a Louisville defense that allowed over 11 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – QB Kalieb Osborne ($4,500) Osborne is a running QB at min pricing. The matchup isn’t great – Louisville allowed just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season – but Osborne displayed plenty of athleticism when utilized this season with 22 yards on 34 attempts, averaging over six yards per carry.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenji Christian ($4,500) Matchup isn’t the best as we alluded above with Trayanum, but it would be Christian getting the starting nod should we get any opt-out news in the pregame. Christian looked capable at times this season, averaging over five yards a carry, including a 100-yard performance in Week 8 vs. Kent State.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Tucker Gleason (out). Three starters on DEF are in the portal and won’t play. Entire secondary is on opt-out watch.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Caullin Lacy ($5,200) If any one of Isaac Brown, Duke Watson or Keyjuan Brown are available (unlikely), they jump to the top of the list as the top play, but tough to see that happening with the rash of injuries the Louisville backfield has dealt with in 2025. With Chris Bell out, the Louisville passing game likely funnels around lacy who finished second on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and first in routes run.
Fade – QB Miller Moss ($7,400) Don’t see much of a reason to play any QB in this game. Moss will be without his WR1, and the two other games on the slate are projected to be shootouts.
Bargain Bin – RB Shaun Boykins Jr. ($4,000) and / or RB Braxton Jennings ($4,100) If this duo could run for 100+ each against an SEC defense in Kentucky in the final week of the regular season, they should be capable of doing so against a MAC opponent that is without three defensive starters and a makeshift coaching staff. Boykins would be the preferred choice of the two, as he was the starter against Kentucky and held a 22-19 advantage in rushing attempts in Week 14. Boykins also held an 8-3 advantage in red zone rushing attempts vs. Kentucky as well.
***Jeff Brohm said he was hopeful one of Keyjuan Brown, Isaac Brown or Duke Watson would play, which would throw a wrench into this, but can’t imagine they do based on the injuries Louisville dealt with this season.
Best of the Rest – Outside WRs. WR Dacari Collins ($3,500) and WR Antonio Meeks ($3,000) started against Kentucky in the finale with Chris Bell out of the lineup, with Collins hauling in a touchdown reception. WR Treyshun Hurry ($3,200) was targeted four times in the blowout win against the Wildcats and played 63% of the team’s offensive snaps. One of Toledo’s starting safeties has already opted out, while the remaining starters in the secondary are potential opt-outs.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Chris Bell (out), All Louisville RBs (questionable / doubtful)
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Mississippi
- Point-Spread: WKU -2.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: WKU 30 – USM 27.5
- Weather: Dome
Western Kentucky:
Bargain Bin –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
