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Michigan vs. Texas
- Point-Spread: Tex -8.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: Tex 28.5 – Mich 20
- Weather: 59 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Marshall ($6,600) Marshall was in full pads during practice on Sunday, now a month removed from the Ohio State matchup where he was limited to minimal snaps due to an upper body injury. Not expecting Michigan to diverge much from its offensive identity after the coaching change – this will always be a run-first offense in Ann Arbor. Texas excelled against the run this season, but on Wednesday the Longhorns will be without seven of their top 11 defenders. Most of Michigan’s offensive line will be intact, aside from one starting guard.
***Word of caution – Marshall said to the media this week that he’s “just trying to get strong on my shoulder” and “taking it day by day.” It’s possible we see a shared workload between Marshall and backup RB Bryson Kuzdzal ($5,700) who impressed against Maryland and Ohio State in the last two games.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Underwood ($5,700) Quarterback is a strength on the slate, so we’ll have minimal exposure to Underwood here even at $5.7k. That said, Texas is missing three of its four starters in the secondary, and Underwood will have his full complement or receivers available to him to throw to. When Biff Poggi was in charge during the two-game stretch in Week’s 3-4 when Sherrone Moore was suspended, we saw Underwood run as much as he has all year with a combined 175 yards and two scores vs. Central Michigan and Nebraska.
Best of the Rest – WR Andrew Marsh ($4,600) or WR Donaven McCulley ($4,200) Barring a major surprise, we expect both Marsh and McCulley to play on Wednesday as both were show in full pads during practice. Marsh was the one in question potentially after rumors were swirling that he was poking around the portal after the coaching change. The duo combined for 53% of the team’s total receiving production and six of the nine receiving touchdowns.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Justice Haynes (out), WR Semaj Morgan (doubtful)
Texas:
Top Play – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,900) No confirmation yet but would expect Mosley to be the receiver kicking inside in the slot with DeAndre Moore Jr. entering the transfer portal. Mosley spent 63% of his time in the slot last year with Stanford so he’s familiar with playing inside. Mosley had a strong close to the year with 50+ receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($3,600) Endries has stated he will play on Wednesday, and the matchup is strong against a Michigan defense that allows over 12 FPPG to tight ends, the highest number on the slate for any defensive group. Linebackers struggle in coverage for the Wolverines, so you see tight ends and slot receivers typically do the most damage against this defensive scheme. With the depleted depth in the backfield, WR / KR Ryan Niblett ($3,100) is expected to be the RB2 behind Christian Clark.
Pivot Play – RB Christian Clark ($4,400) Texas will be without its RB1, RB2 and RB3, leaving Christian Clark to assume the starting mantle against the Wolverines. Clark ran for just 137 yards on 32 carries this season, but had a ton of hype during the summer, to the point where some thought the redshirt freshman would start over Tre Wisner or CJ Baxter – Clark is not short on talent. Michigan was stout against the run for much of the year, ranked 50th in success rate, 6th in explosive run plays allowed, but did give up 100+ to Ohio State’s Bo Jackson in the finale.
Best of the Rest – QB Arch Manning ($8,600) Michigan allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, but this was not an overly dominant group in the secondary, ranked 102nd in pass D success rate and 56th in EPA per pass. The Wolverines will also be without two of their top pass rushers who will enter the NFL Draft. I would put Manning as the QB4 on the slate behind Pavia, Mensah and Sims. WR Ryan Wingo ($6,400) and Parker Livingstone ($4,300) are both in play after combining for 13 receiving touchdowns in the regular season. The reason we prefer Mosley is Michigan ability to limit the deep ball, ranking 3rd nationally in explosive pass plays allowed. Wingo and Livingstone thrive on big plays, both averaging well over 15 YPC.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Tre Wisner (portal), WR DeAndre Moore Jr. (portal), RB Jerrick Gibson (portal), RB CJ Baxter (portal)
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Van -4.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Van 26 – Iowa 21.5
- Weather: 56 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa:
Copy + Paste from the previous Iowa DFS writeups this season – Can RB Kamari Moulton ($5,800) run on Vanderbilt is all we need to know. Our initial lean is towards, yes, but this will be tough sledding against a defense that finished the year 15th in yards allowed on the ground, 25th in EPA per rush and allowed just 20 combined fantasy points to opposing backfields in the regular season. The flipside of that argument is that Iowa’s offensive line won the Joe Moore Award in 2025 as the best group in college football, helping the Hawkeyes rank 8th nationally in line yards and 18th in rush success rate. We’ll have some Moulton exposure, but this is a tough Vanderbilt defense that does not have any opt-outs and will be intact.
Honorable mentions for QB Mark Gronowski ($6,500) and emerging TE DJ Vonnahme ($3,700) as possible options. Gronowski scored a rushing touchdown in all but one game this season and has a marginally higher projection than Arch Manning who is $2.3k more expensive. Gut hunch – Gronowski will want to go blow for blow with Diego Pavia with his arm and legs in his final collegiate game, and is a sneaky GPP option. Vanderbilt allowed over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Vonnahme, a true freshman, looks to be the next from a long lineage of stud tight ends for Iowa, finishing the year with 12 of his 22 receptions coming in the last four games, along with both of his receiving touchdowns. Vanderbilt struggled mightily to defend tight ends this season, allowing over 12 FPPG to the position, including 7-85-0 on nine targets to Tennessee’s Ethan Davis in the regular season finale.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Xavier Williams (out)
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
